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csaw:critical_uncertainties [2021-01-28 18:34] – created majacsaw:critical_uncertainties [2021-04-14 09:30] (current) – maja
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 What are the key factors influencing climate and sustainability (action)? What are the key factors influencing climate and sustainability (action)?
 +
 +
 +=== Mapping the landscape ===
  
 The bigger picture: STEEP (social, technological, environmental, economic and political) factors relevant to CSAW The bigger picture: STEEP (social, technological, environmental, economic and political) factors relevant to CSAW
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   * P – Political (and legal): government, legislation, funding, infrastructure, the military...   * P – Political (and legal): government, legislation, funding, infrastructure, the military...
  
-Summarise the factors (trends/signals/drivers of change) in clear, specific and concise statement, like a headline. One per (post-it) card. +Summarise the factors (signals/trends/drivers of change) in clear, specific and concise statement, like a headline. One per (post-it) card. 
  
 Work in breakout groups of 4-5 people, 10-15 mins per category (or group of categories, e.g. social and political, economic and technological). If it's important that all participants have the opportunity to discuss all categories, you can use a hosting technique like the world cafe. [[https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/world_cafe]] Work in breakout groups of 4-5 people, 10-15 mins per category (or group of categories, e.g. social and political, economic and technological). If it's important that all participants have the opportunity to discuss all categories, you can use a hosting technique like the world cafe. [[https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/world_cafe]]
  
-At the end of the last round each group selects maximum 3-5 key drivers of change per category, writes them clearly on cards/post-its. Focus on:  +At the end of the last round each group selects maximum 3-5 key trends/drivers of change per category. Focus on:  
   * Where do you experience a world that is ending or dying?     * Where do you experience a world that is ending or dying?  
   * Where do you experience a world that is wanting to be born?    * Where do you experience a world that is wanting to be born? 
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 Collect 10-15 topics that have the most dots (i.e. 'hottest topics') Collect 10-15 topics that have the most dots (i.e. 'hottest topics')
  
 +----
 +
 +=== Identifying critical uncertainties ===
  
-== Identifying critical uncertainties (alt. critical actions, interventions, impact...) ==+(alt. critical actions, interventions, impact...)
  
 In this exercise the goal is to rank topics by importance and uncertainty (for the success of CSAW). In this context "uncertainty" means that some factors are likely to remain more or less fixed, constant and 'certain', like demographics, while others are more variable and unpredictable, like public opinion.  In this exercise the goal is to rank topics by importance and uncertainty (for the success of CSAW). In this context "uncertainty" means that some factors are likely to remain more or less fixed, constant and 'certain', like demographics, while others are more variable and unpredictable, like public opinion. 
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 === Framing the theme === === Framing the theme ===
  
-Testing the boundaries of the chosen critical uncertainty +Testing the boundaries of the critical uncertainties
 -> French "tâtonnement" is more in line with what this exercise is meant to do than "testing" - it's more about 'feeling around' the boundaries  -> French "tâtonnement" is more in line with what this exercise is meant to do than "testing" - it's more about 'feeling around' the boundaries 
  
-  * Discuss the outcome - what topic(s) emerged as a critical uncertainty? Would this be a good theme for the CSAW pilot? Why (why yes/why not)? +  * Discuss the outcome - what topic(s) emerged as critical uncertainties? Do any of these topics point towards an interesting theme for the CSAW pilot? Why (why yes/why not)? 
-  * Group discussion about the chosen theme, where its edges are, what's in/out of the boundary - designing the 'frame" in which the design can happen +  * Group discussion about possible topics, where their edges are, what's in/out of the boundary - designing the 'frame" in which the theme design can happen 
-  * End with a listening round - how does each of the participants feel/what do they think about using the identified critical uncertainty as a theme for the event.+  * End with a listening round - how does each of the participants feel/what do they think about using the identified critical uncertainty as a theme for the event.  
 + 
 +Summarise the discussion outcomes into a proposition, share the proposition with the group, continue the discussion and decision making online, and if possible in another co-present session.
  
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