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future_fabulators:analogs_framework [2014-02-12 00:59] – created majafuture_fabulators:analogs_framework [2014-03-04 06:59] (current) – maja
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 ==== Analogs Framework ==== ==== Analogs Framework ====
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 +Analogs Framework assumes that present situations always have one or more analog situations in the past. An interesting starting point to bring in historical discussions in scenario building.
  
 <blockquote>Does that mean that radically new situations must be dealt with without referring to the past experience? In their book, “Thinking in time”, Richard E. Neustadt and Ernest R. May think not. They argue that there is always an analog, ie a past situation decision makers can refer to, but on the conditions that the similarities and differences with the present situation be clearly understood. <blockquote>Does that mean that radically new situations must be dealt with without referring to the past experience? In their book, “Thinking in time”, Richard E. Neustadt and Ernest R. May think not. They argue that there is always an analog, ie a past situation decision makers can refer to, but on the conditions that the similarities and differences with the present situation be clearly understood.
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   * Chronological Proportionality. Dramatic events take our attention away from what's really going on.   * Chronological Proportionality. Dramatic events take our attention away from what's really going on.
   * Unintended Consequences: things turn out differently than we expect.   * Unintended Consequences: things turn out differently than we expect.
-  * Policy Insignificance. What policy people do is often not the main event at all. </blockquote>+  * Policy Insignificance. What policy people do is often not the main event at all.  
 +Historians, he said, can bring a well supported, authoritative, helpful message to the public discourse and to policy makers at such times: "Don't freak out."</blockquote>
  
 http://longnow.org/seminars/02010/jul/12/five-ways-use-history-well/ http://longnow.org/seminars/02010/jul/12/five-ways-use-history-well/

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