✎ future_fabulators:antipodean_musings [the libarynth]

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==== Musings from the Antipodean research retreat ====

by Maja Kuzmanovic & Nik Gaffney. Glenelg, Australia. 020140210 - 02140305

During February 2014 we spent a few weeks on research for Future Fabulators. We wanted to gain a better understanding of the techniques, tools and theories of 'futures studies' and if they could be applied in our work with future pre-enactments. After much practice-based research in [[:/resilients/future_preparedness|future preparedness]], we found that a more theoretical underpinning was needed, which meant that our focus was primarily on the literature. We spent the retreat in more or less uninterrupted reading, following interesting leads down often fractal rabbit holes. We attempted to answer questions that had arisen from the last few years of experiments in [[prehearsing the future]]. Our starting points were of both methodological and philosophical nature: on the one hand we wanted to know how to improve our practice of scenario building and pre-enacments with new, transdisciplinary techniques, and on the other hand we were wondering what would happen if foresight became a part of everyday life, where uncertainty is not seen as a threat but an opportunity.

To ease ourselves into the researchers' mindset, we began with seeking answers to our methodological questions, first related to scenario building, later looking at fields that we could draw from to design better prehearsals (including improv theatre, role playing games, disaster drills and simulations). We found many promising tools that we’re keen to begin experimenting with. By looking at methods we began to get a grasp of what the shape and size of the field of futures studies, that hovers on the edges between being a (consulting) practice and an academic discipline, with a strong focus on methodology. We read about the history, current developments and future aspirations of the field and came to a happy conclusion that from its origins in systems theory and the culture of prediction 50-60 years ago, it (at least partially) seems to be moving towards our fields of interest: focusing on complexity, experience, awareness, uncertainty, anti-fragility, etc. The last part of our research was focusing on these developments, that helped us find kindred developments, such as the works of Stuart Candy and Jose Ramos, merging futures with design, politics and action research. Their writings helped us contextualise our work with experiential futures, understanding what has been done so far and which questions still remain open. By the end of this short literature research period we feel we stand on much firmer ground, with new potential allies and clearer future directions. The paragraphs below are written to provide an overview of our process and findings, and provide an alternative way to navigate the material collected on the [[background]] page of the Future Fabulators wiki.

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FoAM's garden research centre

==== But why…? ====

Since we began working with what we now call 'speculative culture' (~2009), we have crossed paths with people like Bruce Sterling, Anab Jain, Chris Luebkeman, Scott Smith, Justin Pickard, Maya van Leemput, Stuart Candy (amongst others) who are more directly involved with futures, future studies or may even call themselves futurists. We have seen many points of contact (and departure) with their work. Our literature research has allowed us to find where our work stands in relation to these and other futurists, situating our practice in a wider futures context, understand where we can stand on others' shoulders, and where we (consciously or unconsciously) stumbled on possible solutions or new avenues of exploration. It has helped us to begin answering the questions of why we might want to work more explicitly with futures, as well as beginning to glimpse answers to a few other dilemmas, including:
 
  * how do we increase a sense of agency when faced with unknowable volatile futures?
  * who are our historical and contemporary peers?
  * how can we increase the commitment to co-create preferred futures?
  * how can futures work empower people to live abundant, meaningful lives in the present?
  * what are the different forms experiential futures can take?
  * what can we add to our toolbox of methods and techniques?
  * etc.

We began by interviewing each other using the [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5_Whys|5 whys]] technique. From this conversation it became clear that we’re interested in examining the futures tools and techniques that can help us adapt to uncertainty (in its many guises). We believe that a culture where foresight is embedded in daily life would be more adept to living in a world of probabilities without anxiety, away from rigidly linear 'cause and effect'. Being able to envision alternative futures in the present could allow us to embrace uncertainty more easily. It could also open up new possibilities that would shake up the currently unacceptable status quo and attempt to steer it towards a future where holistic, inclusive and anti-fragile values prevail. We want to investigate experiential futurism as a way to (re)connect future visions with realities, where humans aren’t separate from planetary "others". Our conjecture is that by experiencing what it would be like to be ourselves in a range of future scenarios we could observe our present situation more clearly, adapt to the world as it evolves and experience the agency to navigate our present in the direction of more preferred futures.

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====Studying Futures====

From our rather idealistic starting point, we delved into the literature of future studies, in order to generate more coherent mental maps of the field. This has lead us down labyrinths of military strategy and around corporate think tanks, with pathways through academic paper factories and glitzy design [[:/forecasting]] blogs leading us towards [[the future of futures]] and [[non predictive strategy]]. We learned buckets of jargon and came to see that futures studies has many faces, as well as curious histories and promising futures. The field seems somewhat fragmented, comprised of various schools of thought and modes of action (which in fairness, is true of many academic disciplines with one foot in the practice-based). There are some obvious geographic and linguistic differences; the Europeans (in France, Netherlands, Germany, UK…) and the Americans (such as RAND or the Global Business Network), some with quite formalised methods designed for policy and strategic planning originating in the (cold) war era of the 40s and 50s and more recently looking at digitally enhanced [[crowdsourced futures]]; there is the Pacific strand with the Manoa School in Hawaii and several Australian futurists enclaves, proposing methods that are perhaps more culturally and philosophically closer to what we’re interested in (such as causal layered analysis, or [[integral futures]]) and finally there are interesting futurists from Mexico, India, the middle east and parts of the Global South, with interesting views on de-colonising futures.

==== Scenario thinking ====

The first week of our research was preoccupied with methodology, since many of our practice oriented questions emerged from debriefs from our [[scenarios|scenario]] workshops. We had planned to investigate methods from various fields suitable for scenario development and prehearsals, but due to time constraints as well as the vastly disparate literature we focused on [[scenario building]] and [[scenario methods|its methods]]. We had previously primarily worked with the [[http://lib.fo.am/future_fabulators/scenario_methods#x2_double_uncertainty|double uncertainty]] method, where four possible futures emerge from two "critical uncertainties" selected from a range of local factors and macro trends (aka 'drivers of change). Although this method has proven to work well in a range of situations, we were curious to expand our toolbox, increase our ability to adapt workshops to different groups and topics. After digesting several [[http://lib.fo.am/future_fabulators/scenario_methods#methods_comparisons|review articles]] comparing different methods, we dug deeper into those that resonated with our way of working. For example [[http://lib.fo.am/future_fabulators/scenario_methods#causal_layered_analysis|Causal Layered Analysis]] suggests ways to have deeper conversation about social causes, worldviews and cultural myths (with resonances of Stuart Brand’s [[http://www.jiscinfonet.ac.uk/tools/pace-layering/|Pace Layers]]). Basically both Sohail Inayatullah and Stuart Brand talk about different layers that impact change - from fast paced and obvious (like fashions and technologies) to more fundamental, but also not easily measurable and often overlooked issues related to culture and nature. Jim Dator, one of the veterans of the futures field, who postulates that "“Any useful idea about the future should appear to be ridiculous" has distilled a method called [[http://lib.fo.am/future_fabulators/scenario_methods#four_generic_futures|Four Generic Futures]]. He found that most stories about the future fall into four categories: continued growth, total collapse, a disciplined society and a transformed society (usually through technology). This method provides means for creating more 'extreme' scenarios that can spark interesting discussions. A very different method emerging from astronomy and social sciences is the [[http://lib.fo.am/future_fabulators/scenario_methods#morphological_analysisfar|Morphological Analysis]] that looks at futures as a dynamic whole, and works with permutations and relationships between change drivers that can generate large numbers of divergent scenarios and possible paths between them.

Aside from these general methods, there are several specific techniques that we investigated to help us improve aspects of the scenario process. To begin with, we want to be able to ask better questions and encourage an [[inquiring mind]], while being aware of our [[cognitive bias|cognitive biases]] and [[affective forecasting|emotions]]. The questioning questions lead us towards action learning and education based on inquiry, but also to zen buddhists talking about the importance of keeping a beginners mind throughout our life. We also found some questioning games and tried them out in breakfast meetings, that lead to much laughter, but also an affirmation that we want to continue scenario workshops that begin by designing a core question with the participants, rather than coming with a pre-packaged 'burning issue’ that people might not identify with. The next step in a scenario workshop (after coming up with a good question) is understanding the past and the present of the participants' situation. We looked at how we could better structure a discussion about what is known and what is assumed to be current circumstances, that would allow the participants to 'vent' their frustrations and talk about things they appreciate in the present, but also expose assumptions and point towards effective actions. We found interesting possibilities in the [[KPUU framework]], where a discussion is structured around what is known, presumed, unknown and unknowable in the present. A much bigger framework, [[integral scenario development]] talks about how to broaden and deepen perceptual filters, of both facilitators and participants, with some evocative principles of practice, such as non-exclusion, unfoldment, enactment and uncomfort.

The biggest and most unwieldy task in scenario building is identifying and presenting (interactions between) drivers of change (aka macro-trends). We looked at different methods that are used in what is known [[horizon scanning]] or environmental scanning: basically ways to continuously review various media, looking for signals that something is changing in society, technology, economy, etc. The signals can be weak and emerging, or already established trends that are waxing, waning or remaining constant. Obviously, in a world as complex and fast as ours, scanning needs to be a continuous practice, but there are many ways to do this more effectively, including different online, crowdsourced or expert services. Once the things that influence change  are identified, the interesting part begins: like in a story where change drivers are characters, the next step is finding the relationships between them, and events that have emerged or might emerge from them. There are many ways to visualise these relationships, such as the futures wheel, trend impact analysis or [[field anomaly relaxation]]. Many of these techniques might sound complicated when described in text, but we’re keen to try them out in practice.

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The question how to construct rich [[http://lib.fo.am/future_fabulators/scenario_methods#scenarios|scenarios]] lead us deeper into the territory of axes, branches, layers, fans and cones (no specialist field is complete without a working vocabulary) - all of which can represent different relationships between (elements) of possible, probable and/or preferred futures. It is interesting that several researchers warn that different methods will produce different types of future scenarios. This is something that we intuitively grasped after facilitating several workshops. The research confirmed that we have to be very careful about not just the methods we use, but also of our influence as facilitators on the process and outcome of the scenarios. A lot of the [[integral futures]] research talks about the inclusion of the practitioner as part of scenario creation. Our personal development, history, worldviews, presence and other factors has an impact on the content and the process of the workshop. This lead us to search for different ways to ask questions during the constructions of scenario skeletons, that might lead to different answers and therefore different stories, than if we intuitively ask questions that interest us.

What we have previously called 'retrocasting' or 'scenario testing' (probing the paths from "here" to various projected futures) goes by several names in the futures field, the most widespread being "[[http://lib.fo.am/future_fabulators/scenario_methods#retrocasting|backcasting]]" and/or "incasting". The difference between backcasting and retrocasting (if we understood this correctly) is that backcasting envisions a preferred future and asks what would have to be done in the present to get to that future, while incasting looks at finding signals of emergence different possible or probable futures (preferred and otherwise).

Exploring each of these methods and techniques has of course revealed many promising leads, some of which have been left unexplored for now. However, our initial collection of [[scenario methods]] is now more extensive and has already sparked ideas about how we could use or adapt some of them in our work.

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==== Experiential futures ====

As we were approximately knee-deep in [[http://lib.fo.am/future_fabulators/scenario_methods#futures_research_methods|futures research methods]], Justin Pickard diverted our attention to Stuart Candy’s thesis [[The Futures of Everyday Life]]. Written in 2010, his work provides a strong theoretical and practical grounding for what he calls "[[experiential futures]]" a term that we’ll happily adopt, as it seems a better fit for our future pre-enactments than say 'design fiction' or 'speculative design'. The thesis begins with outlining ways that can move us away from the usual polarisation of utopian, dystopian futures, with the continuation of the status quo somewhere in between. One of the ways is the [[four generic futures]], that he used to design experiential scenario experiments for [[http://www.futures.hawaii.edu/publications/hawaii/FourFuturesHawaii2050-2006.pdf|Hawaii in 20150]]. The second issue that is identified in the thesis is the experiential gulf between thinking or talking about future scenarios and actually experiencing them. He calls for an integration of futures research and experience design, allowing different ways of knowing to penetrate our futures awareness. From reuniting body and mind, Candy goes on to discuss the uniting futures and design with politics, and looks at some principles upon which experiential scenarios could be built. Going beyond controlled exercises in workshops and gallery spaces, he talks about [[guerrilla futures]], or futures in the wild, where unsuspecting public encounters speculative artifacts from a future scenario, embedded in the spaces of daily life. The three examples of guerrilla futures discussed are the [[New York Times Special Edition]] of the Yes Men, [[http://www.bluelineproject.org/|The Blue Line Project]] and [[http://futuryst.blogspot.com.au/2007/10/bird-cage.html|Found Futures Chinatown]]. It was interesting to read the authors' reflection regarding the effectiveness and ethical issues of such interventions (such as potential distress and misleading of audience caught unawares), as well as his conclusion that the alternative - continuing to work on scenarios on purely analytical and intellectual levels - isn't acceptable, The final chapter of the thesis was quite encouraging for us. It talks about different ways of infusing foresight outside expert fields, moving toward what Stuart calls "futures oriented social ecology". One of the tactics he calls "future shock therapy" and the other "ambient foresight". Future Shock is a tactic deployed by guerrilla futurists, and Hakim Bey's [[http://hermetic.com/bey/taz1.html|Poetic Terrorists]]. On the other end of the spectrum, "rather than demanding attention with fireworks, an ‘ambient’ future awareness is gentle, or perhaps almost invisible."  Ambient foresight "nudges" people towards developing the futures skills, as do for example prediction markets and alternate reality games, such as [[http://archive.superstructgame.net/|Superstruct]]. We had a couple of inspiring conversations with Stuart and uncovered many common threads, which we hope will eventually result in some form of collaboration.

Finding ourselves on more familiar transdisciplinary theory, we continued collecting references to [[design fiction]], a field that has gained traction in recent years, merging design and foresight, to create objects, spaces and experiences as futures prototypes. Alongside (the now usual suspects) Bruce Sterling, Superflux, Dunne & Raby, The Extrapolation Factory are people and works spanning the arts, games, movies and architecture, such as Nelly Ben Hayoun, Natalie Jeremijenko, Atelier van Lieshout, Angelo Vermeulen, Adrian Hon and others. We haven’t spent too much time looking through many new and interesting projects but this is something that could benefit from further studies, conversations, comparisons, pattern-finding, etc.

Another interesting marriage of disciplines emerged as [[action foresight]] combining action research and futures studies into anticipatory action learning. One of the inspiring proponents of this field is Jose Ramos, who caries out his work at the edges between (critical) futures, activism, open democratic processes and community development. This work is particularly relevant to our inclination towards creating change in the present, as we’re still gradually formulating ideas around [[possible futures parallel presents]] and [[non predictive strategy]]. We are interested in finding ways to thrive in turbulence, including [[strategies for antifragility]], [[doing democracy]] and perhaps even a touch of [[rewilding etiquette]]. Further research and/or practice required.

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==== What next? ====

All of our explorations of experiential futures are at the moment geared towards [[prehearsing the future]] and improving our [[prehearsal pocket guide]]. In the three short weeks we only began touching on different [[prehearsal methods]]. There are several threads around improvisation that we'd like to follow up, including various experiments from "Impro" by Keith Johnstone, and ideas around incremental prehearsals that we discussed with Sarah Neville, during a follow up of her [[residencies|Weather Lore residency]].

As our current research phase comes to an end, we can conclude that we've found a fertile ground with many [[background]] threads to continue following. We plan to get back it in between and below our practical experiments, but we’d also like to encourage all of the Future Fabulators, and anyone else interested in these subjects to keep feeding these pages with interesting, relevant and/or surprising information and insights.

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