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future_fabulators:confabulation [2014-02-10 07:19] – maja | future_fabulators:confabulation [2014-02-12 02:38] – maja | ||
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* [[: | * [[: | ||
* can we use predictions to help separate/ | * can we use predictions to help separate/ | ||
- | * what is the question? can it be answered | + | * what is the question? can it be answered |
==== internal / irrational ==== | ==== internal / irrational ==== | ||
* divination / invocation | * divination / invocation | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==== physical narratives ==== | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Christine Wilks talking about text as a way for developing character depth; [[http:// | ||
+ | * performing text on screen | ||
+ | * Varytale | ||
+ | * "Text becomes the equivalent of subtitles" | ||
+ | * Very based around computer games. | ||
+ | * " | ||
+ | * Note: Prehearsals are first person narratives, PNs are third person. Thus a Prehearsal can have " | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | ====formalised decision making==== | ||
+ | |||
+ | A lot of the scenario planning process has to do with [[Formalised Decision Making]] and how this is done in groups. | ||
+ | |||
==== present / future ==== | ==== present / future ==== | ||
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General questions: | General questions: | ||
- | * 'but why' (experiential futurism)? | + | * 'but why...' (experiential futurism)? |
- | * how do we give the participants | + | * how do we encourage |
* how do we clarify that what we’re doing is not about predicting the future, but about empowering people to be more aware of their present situation and clarify what they could do today to shape their actions to encourage a preferred possible future? | * how do we clarify that what we’re doing is not about predicting the future, but about empowering people to be more aware of their present situation and clarify what they could do today to shape their actions to encourage a preferred possible future? | ||
- | * what forms can ' | + | * what other forms can ' |
- | * what is the shortest and longest time in which we can do scenario workshops and/or prehearsals to come up with interesting results | + | * what is the shortest and/or longest time in which we can complete meaningful |
- | * how can we help increase commitment of the participants | + | * what other methods, aside from scenario building, are used to discuss possible futures? |
- | * what can we borrow from other fields, | + | * what can we borrow from other fields, |
- | * how can we allow participants to use digital tools to enrich the process, | + | * how can we help increase the commitment of the participants to work towards their preferred future(s)? how much follow-up is needed? |
- | * what other methods, aside from scenario building, are used to discuss possible futures? | + | * how could we enable |
Preparation beforehand | Preparation beforehand | ||
* what can participants prepare for a scenario workshop beforehand? | * what can participants prepare for a scenario workshop beforehand? | ||
- | | + | |
+ | Commonly the people organising the workshop will "Work on identifying major drivers, trends and events should be initiated ahead of the first workshop: this is an opportunity to draw on relevant horizon scanning work and other analysis. Ideally this work will be synthesised into a format which can be accessed easily by workshop participants, | ||
+ | | ||
+ | |||
+ | Millenium project used questionnaires and interviews, then a computer analysis of answers to get to the | ||
Key question | Key question | ||
- | * how to better structure designing the core question? | + | |
- | * how can we encourage | + | * [[http:// |
- | * why is it so difficult to make questions | + | |
+ | * [[https:// | ||
+ | * how can we encourage | ||
+ | * why does it seem more difficult to phrase | ||
+ | |||
+ | "In nearly all cases it should be possible to formulate the purpose of the scenarios work as a question. If this proves difficult, this is often an indication that the work will not be taken up when completed, even if it is of a good quality." | ||
Mapping the present situation | Mapping the present situation | ||
* what are different ways to map-out the present situation surrounding the key question? | * what are different ways to map-out the present situation surrounding the key question? | ||
- | | + | * [[KPUU Framework]] |
- | * does it help talking | + | |
+ | * does it help to talk about things that are fixed, or constraints that exist? | ||
Key factors | Key factors | ||
* how to best visualise and cluster the relationships between key factors | * how to best visualise and cluster the relationships between key factors | ||
+ | * " | ||
* are we talking only about success criteria here? | * are we talking only about success criteria here? | ||
Macro trends | Macro trends | ||
* how much analysis is appropriate for the types of scenarios and prehearsals we’re making? | * how much analysis is appropriate for the types of scenarios and prehearsals we’re making? | ||
+ | * how can we make assumptions and guesswork more apparent (i.e. indicating how drivers can be based on an assumption, guess or ' | ||
* what is the relevance of facts and data related to macro trends in experiential futurism? | * what is the relevance of facts and data related to macro trends in experiential futurism? | ||
- | * how can we have a more constructive discussion about the macro trends | + | * how can we have a more constructive discussion about the macro trends |
- | * how do we look at drivers as dynamic forces? should we be looking at responses to trends rather than trends in general? | + | * how do we look at drivers as dynamic forces? should we be looking at responses to trends rather than trends in general? |
* what are existing ways of discussing trends with groups of people? | * what are existing ways of discussing trends with groups of people? | ||
- | | + | * [[horizon scanning]] |
- | * are there other ways to group trends | + | * [[http:// |
+ | * [[http:// | ||
+ | | ||
+ | * are there other well understood methods | ||
* is there another way to look at large scale changes aside from trends (without having to do a PhD in each of the changes)? | * is there another way to look at large scale changes aside from trends (without having to do a PhD in each of the changes)? | ||
- | + | * how effective are these methods and how can we usefully evalute them? | |
+ | * what does a ' | ||
Ranking critical uncertainties | Ranking critical uncertainties | ||
* what are different ways in which this is done by others? | * what are different ways in which this is done by others? | ||
- | |||
Scenarios | Scenarios | ||
* when to use one, two, three or more axes? | * when to use one, two, three or more axes? | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Two axes method: Scenarios generated using the ‘two axes’ process are illustrative rather than predictive; they tend to be high-level (although additional layers of detail can subsequently be added). They are particularly suited to testing medium to long-term policy direction, by ensuring that it is robust in a range of environments. Scenarios developed using this method tend to look out 10-20 years.[[http:// | ||
+ | * Branch analysis method: The ‘branch analysis’ method is suited to developing scenarios around specific turning-points that are known in advance (e.g. elections, a referendum or peace process). This approach works best for a shorter time horizon: generally up to five years.[[http:// | ||
+ | * Cone of plausibility method: offers a more deterministic model of the way in which drivers lead to outcomes, by explicitly listing assumptions and how these might change. Of the three techniques, this approach is most suitable for shorter-term time horizons (e.g. a few months to 2-3 years), but can be used to explore longer-term time horizons. It also suits contexts with a limited number of important drivers.[[http:// | ||
+ | * [[http:// | ||
+ | * [[http:// | ||
+ | * [[http:// | ||
+ | * [[http:// | ||
+ | * [[http:// | ||
+ | |||
* how to better structure building scenario skeletons with guiding questions (which questions could be generalised? | * how to better structure building scenario skeletons with guiding questions (which questions could be generalised? | ||
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* wikipedia | * wikipedia | ||
- | ==== reading/ | ||
- | * various [[:scifi]] threads re. possible future cultures, shifting relation between humans & their environment, | ||
- | * bloom, ventus, mars trilogy, incrementalists, | ||
- | * "A History of the Future in 100 Objects " >> [[https:// | ||
- | * 'the culture' | ||
- | * https:// | ||
- | * [[: | ||
- | * https:// | ||
- | * https:// | ||
- | * The Hermetic Library reading room >> http:// | ||
- | * Erwin Wagenhofer' | ||
- | * Christine Wilks talking about text as a way for developing character depth; [[http:// | ||
- | * performing text on screen | ||
- | * Varytale | ||
- | * "Text becomes the equivalent of subtitles" | ||
- | * Very based around computer games. | ||
- | * " | ||
- | * Note: Prehearsals are first person narratives, PNs are third person. Thus a Prehearsal can have " | ||