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future_fabulators:confabulation [2014-02-10 07:33] – nik | future_fabulators:confabulation [2014-02-18 02:18] – nik | ||
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{{future_fabulators: | {{future_fabulators: | ||
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+ | “Any useful idea about the future should appear to be ridiculous” Dator’s 2nd Law of the Future (Dator 1995) | ||
==== external / rational ==== | ==== external / rational ==== | ||
* [[: | * [[: | ||
* can we use predictions to help separate/ | * can we use predictions to help separate/ | ||
- | * what is the question? can it be answered | + | * what is the question? can it be answered |
==== internal / irrational ==== | ==== internal / irrational ==== | ||
* divination / invocation | * divination / invocation | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==== physical narratives ==== | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Christine Wilks talking about text as a way for developing character depth; [[http:// | ||
+ | * performing text on screen | ||
+ | * Varytale | ||
+ | * "Text becomes the equivalent of subtitles" | ||
+ | * Very based around computer games. | ||
+ | * " | ||
+ | * Note: Prehearsals are first person narratives, PNs are third person. Thus a Prehearsal can have " | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | ====formalised decision making==== | ||
+ | |||
+ | A lot of the scenario planning process has to do with [[Formalised Decision Making]] and how this is done in groups. | ||
+ | |||
==== present / future ==== | ==== present / future ==== | ||
Line 19: | Line 37: | ||
Here are a few possible research questions and directions (some quite broad, others very specific), collected from various debriefs | Here are a few possible research questions and directions (some quite broad, others very specific), collected from various debriefs | ||
- | **How to improve the [[: | + | **How to improve the [[prehearsal pocket guide]]?** (notes from February 2014) |
General questions: | General questions: | ||
* 'but why...' | * 'but why...' | ||
- | * how do we encourage a sense of agency amongst the participants when discussing ' | + | * how do we encourage a sense of agency amongst the participants when discussing |
+ | * what are the historical and current examples of experimental arts and culture as speculative/ | ||
+ | * What is the relationship between storytelling and fortunetelling? | ||
+ | * What online tools exist to make statistical analysis (and other aspects of futures research) available for non-expert futurists? | ||
* how do we clarify that what we’re doing is not about predicting the future, but about empowering people to be more aware of their present situation and clarify what they could do today to shape their actions to encourage a preferred possible future? | * how do we clarify that what we’re doing is not about predicting the future, but about empowering people to be more aware of their present situation and clarify what they could do today to shape their actions to encourage a preferred possible future? | ||
* what other forms can ' | * what other forms can ' | ||
- | | + | |
+ | * what other methods, aside from scenario building, are used to discuss possible futures? | ||
+ | * what techniques can we use to translate possible future scenarios into experimental situations (improv, role playing games, LARP, disaster drills, meditation)? | ||
+ | * what is the state of the art in enacting [[ possible futures parallel presents|possible futures / parallel presents]] (e.g. micronations, | ||
* how can we help increase the commitment of the participants to work towards their preferred future(s)? how much follow-up is needed? | * how can we help increase the commitment of the participants to work towards their preferred future(s)? how much follow-up is needed? | ||
- | | + | * how could we enable participants to use digital tools to enrich the process, while avoiding distractions and displacements of email, social media, etc? what collaborative digital tools could we use to share the same digital working surface (something like Reactable for example) |
- | | + | |
- | * what other methods, aside from scenario building, are used to discuss possible futures? | + | |
- | + | ||
- | + | ||
- | Preparation beforehand | + | |
- | * what can participants prepare for a scenario workshop beforehand? | + | |
- | * what are the ideal settings (e.g. room size per person) for a scenario workshop? | + | |
- | + | ||
- | Key question | + | |
- | * how to better structure/ | + | |
- | * how can we encourage an ' | + | |
- | * why does it seem more difficult to phrase questions rather than stating problems? | + | |
- | + | ||
- | Mapping the present situation | + | |
- | * what are different ways to map-out the present situation surrounding the key question? | + | |
- | * when is this step necessary? when can it be reduced/ | + | |
- | * does it help to talk about things that are fixed, or constraints that exist? | + | |
- | + | ||
- | Key factors | + | |
- | * how to best visualise and cluster the relationships between key factors | + | |
- | * are we talking only about success criteria here? | + | |
- | + | ||
- | Macro trends | + | |
- | * how much analysis is appropriate for the types of scenarios and prehearsals we’re making? | + | |
- | * how can we make assumptions and guesswork more apparent (i.e. indicating how drivers can be based on an assumption, guess or ' | + | |
- | * what is the relevance of facts and data related to macro trends in experiential futurism? | + | |
- | * how can we have a more constructive discussion about the macro trends which results in something more meaningful than a list of assumptions? | + | |
- | * how do we look at drivers as dynamic forces? should we be looking at responses to trends rather than trends in general? (nouns -> verbs) | + | |
- | * what are existing ways of discussing trends with groups of people? | + | |
- | * should we make our own STEEP cards to avoid the ' | + | |
- | * are there other well understood methods to group trends other than the customary STEEP (in which cultural changes seem to be clumped in with social or political)? | + | |
- | * is there another way to look at large scale changes aside from trends (without having to do a PhD in each of the changes)? | + | |
- | + | ||
- | + | ||
- | Ranking critical uncertainties | + | |
- | * what are different ways in which this is done by others? | + | |
- | + | ||
- | + | ||
- | Scenarios | + | |
- | * when to use one, two, three or more axes? | + | |
- | * how to better structure building scenario skeletons with guiding questions (which questions could be generalised? | + | |
- | + | ||
- | + | ||
- | From scenarios to story-worlds | + | |
- | * what techniques can we use to flesh out the scenarios into interesting stories | + | |
- | * what elements do we need in a scenario database? | + | |
- | * how to create rich characters and meaningful plots? | + | |
- | + | ||
- | Scenario testing (signals, how to get from here to there) | + | |
- | * how is this done by others? | + | |
- | * what are important things to focus on? | + | |
- | + | ||
- | Visualising | + | |
- | * which methods could we use to visualise possible futures? | + | |
- | + | ||
- | Prototyping | + | |
- | * which methods could we use to prototype possible futures? | + | |
- | + | ||
- | Prehearsals | + | |
- | * how to design them? | + | |
- | * how to host them? | + | |
- | * how to evaluate them? | + | |
- | + | ||
- | Follow-up | + | |
- | * How can we follow-up what happens to the groups after we finish the workshops (especially to understand what happens to commitments to actions and preferred possible futures)? | + | |
- | * How much do we need to be involved in the follow-up? | + | |
- | + | ||
- | + | ||
==== scenario database ==== | ==== scenario database ==== | ||
- | 20140205 While editing [[scenarios]] | + | 20140205 While editing [[scenarios]] it became apparent how tricky it is to keep a consistency in information and layout of the scenarios. The scenario database we're planning to make should make this easier. Components that seem to be needed in all scenarios: |
* what is the question? | * what is the question? | ||
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or should we keep the database only as a 'short story collection'? | or should we keep the database only as a 'short story collection'? | ||
+ | a rather bad example of a scenario database is the [[http:// | ||
==== software & protocols ==== | ==== software & protocols ==== | ||
* open formats > closed formats | * open formats > closed formats | ||
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* wikipedia | * wikipedia | ||
- | ==== reading/ | ||
- | * various [[:scifi]] threads re. possible future cultures, shifting relation between humans & their environment, | ||
- | * bloom, ventus, mars trilogy, incrementalists, | ||
- | * "A History of the Future in 100 Objects " >> [[https:// | ||
- | * 'the culture' | ||
- | * https:// | ||
- | * [[: | ||
- | * https:// | ||
- | * https:// | ||
- | * The Hermetic Library reading room >> http:// | ||
- | * Erwin Wagenhofer' | ||
- | * Christine Wilks talking about text as a way for developing character depth; [[http:// | ||
- | * performing text on screen | ||
- | * Varytale | ||
- | * "Text becomes the equivalent of subtitles" | ||
- | * Very based around computer games. | ||
- | * " | ||
- | * Note: Prehearsals are first person narratives, PNs are third person. Thus a Prehearsal can have " | ||