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future_fabulators:confabulation [2014-02-10 07:34] – nikfuture_fabulators:confabulation [2014-02-11 06:44] – maja
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   * [[:prediction_markets]]   * [[:prediction_markets]]
   * can we use predictions to help separate/isolate important, predictable events within a "A Nonpredictive View of the World"? (cf. fragility -> robustness -> antifragility)   * can we use predictions to help separate/isolate important, predictable events within a "A Nonpredictive View of the World"? (cf. fragility -> robustness -> antifragility)
-  * what is the question? can it be answered diceisively at a particualr point in the future? what is at stake? what are the consequences or impacts?+  * what is the question? can it be answered decisively at a particular point in the future? what is at stake? what are the consequences or impacts?
  
 ==== internal / irrational ==== ==== internal / irrational ====
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 General questions: General questions:
   * 'but why...' (experiential futurism)?   * 'but why...' (experiential futurism)?
-  * how do we encourage a sense of agency amongst the participants when discussing 'possible futures'?+  * how do we encourage a sense of agency amongst the participants when discussing and developing 'possible futures'?
   * how do we clarify that what we’re doing is not about predicting the future, but about empowering people to be more aware of their present situation and clarify what they could do today to shape their actions to encourage a preferred possible future?   * how do we clarify that what we’re doing is not about predicting the future, but about empowering people to be more aware of their present situation and clarify what they could do today to shape their actions to encourage a preferred possible future?
   * what other forms can 'experiencing possible futures' take?    * what other forms can 'experiencing possible futures' take? 
-  * what is the shortest and/or longest time in which we can complete meaningful scenario workshops and/or prehearsals to come up with interesting results while keeping the process enjoyable for the participants?+    * what is the shortest and/or longest time in which we can complete meaningful scenario workshops and/or prehearsals to come up with interesting results while keeping the process enjoyable for the participants? 
 +    * what other methods, aside from scenario building, are used to discuss possible futures? 
 +    * what can we borrow from other fields, such as; improv, role playing games, LARP, disaster drills, meditation… to improve prehearsals?
   * how can we help increase the commitment of the participants to work towards their preferred future(s)? how much follow-up is needed?   * how can we help increase the commitment of the participants to work towards their preferred future(s)? how much follow-up is needed?
-  * what can we borrow from other fields, such as; improv, role playing games, LARP, disaster drills, meditation… to improve prehearsals? +  * how could we enable participants to use digital tools to enrich the process, while avoiding distractions and displacements of email, social media, etc? what collaborative digital tools could we use to share the same digital working surface (something like Reactable for example)
-  * how could we enable participants to use digital tools to enrich the process, while avoiding distractions and displacements of email, social media, etc? what collaborative digital tools could we use to share the same digital working surface (something like the Reactable for example) +
-  * what other methods, aside from scenario building, are used to discuss possible futures?+
  
  
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 Key question Key question
 +  * what are good questions to ask?
 +    * [[http://www.scribd.com/doc/18675626/Art-of-Powerful-Questions|The art of powerful questions]]
   * how to better structure/encourage designing the core question?    * how to better structure/encourage designing the core question? 
 +    * [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Questions_%28game%29|questions game]]
   * how can we encourage an 'inquiring state of mind'?   * how can we encourage an 'inquiring state of mind'?
   * why does it seem more difficult to phrase questions rather than stating problems?   * why does it seem more difficult to phrase questions rather than stating problems?
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 Mapping the present situation Mapping the present situation
   * what are different ways to map-out the present situation surrounding the key question?   * what are different ways to map-out the present situation surrounding the key question?
 +    * [[KPUU Framework]]
   * when is this step necessary? when can it be reduced/removed?   * when is this step necessary? when can it be reduced/removed?
   * does it help to talk about things that are fixed, or constraints that exist?   * does it help to talk about things that are fixed, or constraints that exist?
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 Key factors Key factors
   * how to best visualise and cluster the relationships between key factors   * how to best visualise and cluster the relationships between key factors
 +    * "interrogate anomalies:  data or incidents that seem anomalous - that somehow “don’t fit”, seem weird or don’t make sense, should receive immediate attention.  They could be pointers to a shift in the system as a whole" From: http://silberzahnjones.com/2012/10/04/crafting-non-linear-strategy-the-nature-of-the-problem/#more-799
   * are we talking only about success criteria here?   * are we talking only about success criteria here?
  
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   * are there other well understood methods to group trends other than the customary STEEP (in which cultural changes seem to be clumped in with social or political)?   * are there other well understood methods to group trends other than the customary STEEP (in which cultural changes seem to be clumped in with social or political)?
   * is there another way to look at large scale changes aside from trends (without having to do a PhD in each of the changes)?   * is there another way to look at large scale changes aside from trends (without having to do a PhD in each of the changes)?
- +  * how effective are these methods and how can we usefully evalute them? 
 +  * what does a 'futurism without prediction' look like?
  
 Ranking critical uncertainties Ranking critical uncertainties
   * what are different ways in which this is done by others?   * what are different ways in which this is done by others?
- 
  
 Scenarios Scenarios
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      * "Character is a black box" - in PNs, we can only be based on interpretation based on behaviour and its artefacts, not on explicit exposure, unless we have things like "Dear Diary..."      * "Character is a black box" - in PNs, we can only be based on interpretation based on behaviour and its artefacts, not on explicit exposure, unless we have things like "Dear Diary..."
      * Note: Prehearsals are first person narratives, PNs are third person. Thus a Prehearsal can have "more" introspection in some sense.      * Note: Prehearsals are first person narratives, PNs are third person. Thus a Prehearsal can have "more" introspection in some sense.
 +     * [[http://criticallegalthinking.com/2013/05/14/accelerate-manifesto-for-an-accelerationist-politics/|Accelerationist manifesto]]: "The fu­ture must be cracked open once again, un­fastening our ho­ri­zons to­wards the uni­versal pos­sib­il­ities of the Outside."
 +     * Rekto:Verso over de toekomst: http://www.rektoverso.be/tijdschriftnummer/nr-58-oktober-november-2013
 +
 +==== via Lies Declerck ====
 +
 +(things to follow up)
 +
 +Hanna Arendt and 'natality':\\
 +Voor Arendt is 'nataliteit' een heel belangrijk begrip - dat is het vermogen van de mens om iets nieuws te beginnen, niet iets dat reageert op een bepaalde context of omstandigheden, maar iets werkelijk compleet nieuws. (Het is net dat vermogen dat in haar analyse in een totalitair systeem vernietigd wordt en daarmee, wat haar betreft, de hele mensheid.) Ik bedoel maar: ik kan me voorstellen dat zo'n soort lectuur ook voedend kan zijn om het over toekomstige scenario's te hebben, zonder dat het er rechtstreeks over gaat.
 +http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/arendt/#AreTheAct
 +
 +Sébastien Hendrickx en 'alsof strategie:
 +
 +de 'alsof-strategie'. Die bouwt op een dubbele beweging. Enerzijds verplaatst een kunstenaar zich spelenderwijs in een specifieke maatschappelijke praktijk door het nabootsen van een set rollen, activiteiten, procedures, discoursen, attributen en ruimtes eigen aan die praktijk—net genoeg om er de dominante metafoor in het werk van te maken. Anderzijds wordt deze praktijk binnengeloodst in het domein van de kunst, waar ze—vrijgemaakt van haar eigen conventies —kan worden gemanipuleerd en bevraagd.
 +
 +(...)
 +
 +Toch bezit de kunst geen monopolie op de kritische zin en de kracht van de verbeelding. In tal van maatschappelijke domeinen wordt vandaag grondig nagedacht over alternatieven, zeker nu de toekomst met de dag somberder lijkt te ogen. Leuven Kiimaatneutraal 2030, het Antwerpse voedselcollectief De Beek, het grootschalige experiment in participatieve democratie G1000, de nieuwe coöperatieve bank New B, het Nederlandse online dagblad De Correspondent... Stuk voor stuk zijn het waardevolle vormen van maatschappelijke innovatie, pogingen om radicaal te herdefiniëren hoe 'echt' voedsel, een 'echte' bank, een 'echte' krant... er zouden moeten uitzien. Zij getuigen van een sterke autonomie, autonomie begrepen als 'zelfbestuur'.
 +Maar anders dan deze initiatieven hoeven de 'artistieke alternatieven' niet realiseerbaar en duurzaam te zijn. Net als architecturale maquettes kunnen ze ergens halfweg tussen idee en uitvoering blijven verwijlen. En juist omdat ze de toets van de werkelijkheid niet ten volle hoeven doorstaan, beschikken deze projecten over een beduidend grotere marge voor maatschappijkritiek en toekomstverbeelding.
 +
 +(...)
 +
 +Enerzijds slaan zij met een grote leergierigheid bruggen tussen kunst en leven: de verplaatsingen in andere maatschappelijke praktijken maken de inhoudelijke vragen binnen hun werk heel concreet en tastbaar en zorgen voor een uitbreiding van het veld van vormelijke mogelijkheden. Anderzijds blijven zij de kunst behoedzaam van het leven onderscheiden: zij kunnen zich vrijmaken van de conventies die andere maatschappelijke praktijken tekenen, en deze praktijken daarom radicaal anders denken. Alleen mogen we van dit potentieel van maatschappelijke innovatie geen sluitende antwoorden of oplossingen verwachten. Iets in de kunst blijft het denken en de verbeelding altijd openhouden. En even lijkt het alsof alles anders kan...
 +
 +
 +http://www.rektoverso.be/artikel/kunst-die-zich-voordoet-alsof-ze-iets-anders-dan-kunst
  
  • future_fabulators/confabulation.txt
  • Last modified: 2015-05-20 10:10
  • by nik