Differences

This shows you the differences between two versions of the page.

Link to this comparison view

Both sides previous revision Previous revision
Next revision		 Previous revision
Next revisionBoth sides next revision
future_fabulators:confabulation [2014-02-11 02:21] – majafuture_fabulators:confabulation [2014-02-13 03:56] – nik
Line 4: Line 4:
  
 {{future_fabulators:splash_crop.png}} {{future_fabulators:splash_crop.png}}
 +
 +“Any useful idea about the future should appear to be ridiculous” Dator’s 2nd Law of the Future (Dator 1995)
  
 ==== external / rational ==== ==== external / rational ====
   * [[:prediction_markets]]   * [[:prediction_markets]]
   * can we use predictions to help separate/isolate important, predictable events within a "A Nonpredictive View of the World"? (cf. fragility -> robustness -> antifragility)   * can we use predictions to help separate/isolate important, predictable events within a "A Nonpredictive View of the World"? (cf. fragility -> robustness -> antifragility)
-  * what is the question? can it be answered diceisively at a particualr point in the future? what is at stake? what are the consequences or impacts?+  * what is the question? can it be answered decisively at a particular point in the future? what is at stake? what are the consequences or impacts?
  
 ==== internal / irrational ==== ==== internal / irrational ====
   * divination / invocation   * divination / invocation
 +
 +==== physical narratives ====
 +
 +  * Christine Wilks talking about text as a way for developing character depth; [[http://www.riders-project.net/research/videos/christine-wilks-taking-text-out-of-the-box.html]] (This probably belongs elsewhere, but...)
 +     * performing text on screen
 +     * Varytale  http://varytale.com
 +     * "Text becomes the equivalent of subtitles" - is this a good thing?
 +     * Very based around computer games.
 +     * "Character is a black box" - in PNs, we can only be based on interpretation based on behaviour and its artefacts, not on explicit exposure, unless we have things like "Dear Diary..."
 +     * Note: Prehearsals are first person narratives, PNs are third person. Thus a Prehearsal can have "more" introspection in some sense.
 +
 +
 +====formalised decision making====
 +
 +A lot of the scenario planning process has to do with [[Formalised Decision Making]] and how this is done in groups. 
 +
  
 ==== present / future ==== ==== present / future ====
Line 35: Line 53:
 Preparation beforehand Preparation beforehand
   * what can participants prepare for a scenario workshop beforehand?   * what can participants prepare for a scenario workshop beforehand?
 +
 +Commonly the people organising the workshop will "Work on identifying major drivers, trends and events should be initiated ahead of the first workshop: this is an opportunity to draw on relevant horizon scanning work and other analysis. Ideally this work will be synthesised into a format which can be accessed easily by workshop participants, either as preparatory material or at the workshop itself. Material researched at this stage should include a mix of thematic material, together with analyses of broader trends." [[http://www.eisf.eu/resources/download.asp?d=5764|The Horizon Scanning Centre (pdf)]]
   * what are the ideal settings (e.g. room size per person) for a scenario workshop?   * what are the ideal settings (e.g. room size per person) for a scenario workshop?
 +
 +Millenium project used questionnaires and interviews, then a computer analysis of answers to get to the 
  
 Key question Key question
 +  * what are good questions to ask?
 +    * [[http://www.scribd.com/doc/18675626/Art-of-Powerful-Questions|The art of powerful questions]]
   * how to better structure/encourage designing the core question?    * how to better structure/encourage designing the core question? 
 +    * [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Questions_%28game%29|questions game]]
   * how can we encourage an 'inquiring state of mind'?   * how can we encourage an 'inquiring state of mind'?
   * why does it seem more difficult to phrase questions rather than stating problems?   * why does it seem more difficult to phrase questions rather than stating problems?
 +
 +"In nearly all cases it should be possible to formulate the purpose of the scenarios work as a question. If this proves difficult, this is often an indication that the work will not be taken up when completed, even if it is of a good quality." -[[http://www.eisf.eu/resources/download.asp?d=5764|The Horizon Scanning Centre (pdf)]]
  
 Mapping the present situation Mapping the present situation
   * what are different ways to map-out the present situation surrounding the key question?   * what are different ways to map-out the present situation surrounding the key question?
 +    * [[KPUU Framework]]
   * when is this step necessary? when can it be reduced/removed?   * when is this step necessary? when can it be reduced/removed?
   * does it help to talk about things that are fixed, or constraints that exist?   * does it help to talk about things that are fixed, or constraints that exist?
Line 49: Line 77:
 Key factors Key factors
   * how to best visualise and cluster the relationships between key factors   * how to best visualise and cluster the relationships between key factors
 +    * "interrogate anomalies:  data or incidents that seem anomalous - that somehow “don’t fit”, seem weird or don’t make sense, should receive immediate attention.  They could be pointers to a shift in the system as a whole" From: http://silberzahnjones.com/2012/10/04/crafting-non-linear-strategy-the-nature-of-the-problem/#more-799
   * are we talking only about success criteria here?   * are we talking only about success criteria here?
  
Line 58: Line 87:
   * how do we look at drivers as dynamic forces? should we be looking at responses to trends rather than trends in general? (nouns -> verbs)   * how do we look at drivers as dynamic forces? should we be looking at responses to trends rather than trends in general? (nouns -> verbs)
   * what are existing ways of discussing trends with groups of people?   * what are existing ways of discussing trends with groups of people?
 +    * [[horizon scanning]]
 +    * [[http://www.shapingtomorrow.com/|Online collection of trends]]
 +    * [[http://www.trendwiki.fi/en/|TrendWiki]]
 +    * [[http://www.futurescaper.com/|Futurescraper]]
 +    * [[http://www.slideshare.net/wendyinfutures/wls-three-horizons-18-sept-2013|Three horizons]]
 +    * [[http://www.superflux.in/work/tarotcards|Synbio Tarot]] downloadable from this page
   * should we make our own STEEP cards to avoid the 'business bias'?   * should we make our own STEEP cards to avoid the 'business bias'?
   * are there other well understood methods to group trends other than the customary STEEP (in which cultural changes seem to be clumped in with social or political)?   * are there other well understood methods to group trends other than the customary STEEP (in which cultural changes seem to be clumped in with social or political)?
Line 69: Line 104:
 Scenarios Scenarios
   * when to use one, two, three or more axes?   * when to use one, two, three or more axes?
 +
 +  * Two axes method: Scenarios generated using the ‘two axes’ process are illustrative rather than predictive; they tend to be high-level (although additional layers of detail can subsequently be added). They are particularly suited to testing medium to long-term policy direction, by ensuring that it is robust in a range of environments. Scenarios developed using this method tend to look out 10-20 years.[[http://www.eisf.eu/resources/download.asp?d=5764|The Horizon Scanning Centre (pdf)]]
 +  * Branch analysis method: The ‘branch analysis’ method is suited to developing scenarios around specific turning-points that are known in advance (e.g. elections, a referendum or peace process). This approach works best for a shorter time horizon: generally up to five years.[[http://www.eisf.eu/resources/download.asp?d=5764|The Horizon Scanning Centre (pdf)]]
 +  * Cone of plausibility method: offers a more deterministic model of the way in which drivers lead to outcomes, by explicitly listing assumptions and how these might change. Of the three techniques, this approach is most suitable for shorter-term time horizons (e.g. a few months to 2-3 years), but can be used to explore longer-term time horizons. It also suits contexts with a limited number of important drivers.[[http://www.eisf.eu/resources/download.asp?d=5764|The Horizon Scanning Centre (pdf)]]
 +  * [[http://www.skymark.com/resources/tools/cause.asp|Cause & Effect Scenario Generation]]
 +  * [[http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newTED_06.htmForce Field Analysis]]
 +  * [[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backcasting|Backcasting]]  
 +  * [[http://www.swemorph.com/ma.html|Morphological Analysis]]
 +  * [[http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/2000/PDFs/ducz124p.pdf|Field Anomaly Relaxation]]
 +
   * how to better structure building scenario skeletons with guiding questions (which questions could be generalised?   * how to better structure building scenario skeletons with guiding questions (which questions could be generalised?
  
Line 141: Line 186:
     * wikipedia     * wikipedia
  
-==== reading/notes ==== 
-  * various [[:scifi]] threads re. possible future cultures, shifting relation between humans & their environment, exploration of 'biosphere dividend'. near and far futures 
-    * bloom, ventus, mars trilogy, incrementalists, etc+ 
-    * "A History of the Future in 100 Objects " >> [[https://readmill.com/zzkt/reads/a-history-of-the-future-in-100-objects|notes and quotes]] 
-    * 'the culture' ([[:iain_m_banks]])  
-      * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Culture 
-      * [[:notes_on_the_culture]] 
-    * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_ideas_in_science_fiction 
-    * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religious_ideas_in_science_fiction 
-  * The Hermetic Library reading room >> http://hermetic.com/reading-room/  
-  * Erwin Wagenhofer's movie about the crisis of creativity in education: http://www.alphabet-film.com/ 
-  * Christine Wilks talking about text as a way for developing character depth; [[http://www.riders-project.net/research/videos/christine-wilks-taking-text-out-of-the-box.html]] (This probably belongs elsewhere, but...) 
-     * performing text on screen 
-     * Varytale  http://varytale.com 
-     * "Text becomes the equivalent of subtitles" - is this a good thing? 
-     * Very based around computer games. 
-     * "Character is a black box" - in PNs, we can only be based on interpretation based on behaviour and its artefacts, not on explicit exposure, unless we have things like "Dear Diary..." 
-     * Note: Prehearsals are first person narratives, PNs are third person. Thus a Prehearsal can have "more" introspection in some sense. 
- 
-==== Philosphy ==== 
- 
-Hanna Arendt and 'natality' (via Lies Declerck):\\ 
-Voor Arendt is 'nataliteit' een heel belangrijk begrip - dat is het vermogen van de mens om iets nieuws te beginnen, niet iets dat reageert op een bepaalde context of omstandigheden, maar iets werkelijk compleet nieuws. (Het is net dat vermogen dat in haar analyse in een totalitair systeem vernietigd wordt en daarmee, wat haar betreft, de hele mensheid.) Ik bedoel maar: ik kan me voorstellen dat zo'n soort lectuur ook voedend kan zijn om het over toekomstige scenario's te hebben, zonder dat het er rechtstreeks over gaat. 
-http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/arendt/#AreTheAct 
- 
-Sébastien Hendrickx en 'alsof strategie (via Lies Declerck): 
- 
-de 'alsof-strategie'. Die bouwt op een dubbele beweging. Enerzijds verplaatst een kunstenaar zich spelenderwijs in een specifieke maatschappelijke praktijk door het nabootsen van een set rollen, activiteiten, procedures, discoursen, attributen en ruimtes eigen aan die praktijk—net genoeg om er de dominante metafoor in het werk van te maken. Anderzijds wordt deze praktijk binnengeloodst in het domein van de kunst, waar ze—vrijgemaakt van haar eigen conventies —kan worden gemanipuleerd en bevraagd. 
- 
-(...) 
- 
-Toch bezit de kunst geen monopolie op de kritische zin en de kracht van de verbeelding. In tal van maatschappelijke domeinen wordt vandaag grondig nagedacht over alternatieven, zeker nu de toekomst met de dag somberder lijkt te ogen. Leuven Kiimaatneutraal 2030, het Antwerpse voedselcollectief De Beek, het grootschalige experiment in participatieve democratie G1000, de nieuwe coöperatieve bank New B, het Nederlandse online dagblad De Correspondent... Stuk voor stuk zijn het waardevolle vormen van maatschappelijke innovatie, pogingen om radicaal te herdefiniëren hoe 'echt' voedsel, een 'echte' bank, een 'echte' krant... er zouden moeten uitzien. Zij getuigen van een sterke autonomie, autonomie begrepen als 'zelfbestuur'. 
-Maar anders dan deze initiatieven hoeven de 'artistieke alternatieven' niet realiseerbaar en duurzaam te zijn. Net als architecturale maquettes kunnen ze ergens halfweg tussen idee en uitvoering blijven verwijlen. En juist omdat ze de toets van de werkelijkheid niet ten volle hoeven doorstaan, beschikken deze projecten over een beduidend grotere marge voor maatschappijkritiek en toekomstverbeelding. 
- 
-(...) 
- 
-Enerzijds slaan zij met een grote leergierigheid bruggen tussen kunst en leven: de verplaatsingen in andere maatschappelijke praktijken maken de inhoudelijke vragen binnen hun werk heel concreet en tastbaar en zorgen voor een uitbreiding van het veld van vormelijke mogelijkheden. Anderzijds blijven zij de kunst behoedzaam van het leven onderscheiden: zij kunnen zich vrijmaken van de conventies die andere maatschappelijke praktijken tekenen, en deze praktijken daarom radicaal anders denken. Alleen mogen we van dit potentieel van maatschappelijke innovatie geen sluitende antwoorden of oplossingen verwachten. Iets in de kunst blijft het denken en de verbeelding altijd openhouden. En even lijkt het alsof alles anders kan... 
- 
- 
-http://www.rektoverso.be/artikel/kunst-die-zich-voordoet-alsof-ze-iets-anders-dan-kunst 
  
  • future_fabulators/confabulation.txt
  • Last modified: 2015-05-20 10:10
  • by nik