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future_fabulators:confabulation [2014-02-11 07:11] – majafuture_fabulators:confabulation [2014-02-12 23:44] – nik
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 {{future_fabulators:splash_crop.png}} {{future_fabulators:splash_crop.png}}
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 +“Any useful idea about the future should appear to be ridiculous” Dator’s 2nd Law of the Future (Dator 1995)
 +
  
 ==== external / rational ==== ==== external / rational ====
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   * divination / invocation   * divination / invocation
  
-==== Physical Narratives ====+==== physical narratives ====
  
   * Christine Wilks talking about text as a way for developing character depth; [[http://www.riders-project.net/research/videos/christine-wilks-taking-text-out-of-the-box.html]] (This probably belongs elsewhere, but...)   * Christine Wilks talking about text as a way for developing character depth; [[http://www.riders-project.net/research/videos/christine-wilks-taking-text-out-of-the-box.html]] (This probably belongs elsewhere, but...)
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     * what is the shortest and/or longest time in which we can complete meaningful scenario workshops and/or prehearsals to come up with interesting results while keeping the process enjoyable for the participants?     * what is the shortest and/or longest time in which we can complete meaningful scenario workshops and/or prehearsals to come up with interesting results while keeping the process enjoyable for the participants?
     * what other methods, aside from scenario building, are used to discuss possible futures?     * what other methods, aside from scenario building, are used to discuss possible futures?
-    * what can we borrow from other fields, such as; improv, role playing games, LARP, disaster drills, meditation… to improve prehearsals? +    * what can we borrow from other fields, such as; improv,
-  * how can we help increase the commitment of the participants to work towards their preferred future(s)? how much follow-up is needed? +
-  * how could we enable participants to use digital tools to enrich the process, while avoiding distractions and displacements of email, social media, etc? what collaborative digital tools could we use to share the same digital working surface (something like Reactable for example) +
- +
- +
-Preparation beforehand +
-  * what can participants prepare for a scenario workshop beforehand? +
-  * what are the ideal settings (e.g. room size per person) for a scenario workshop? +
- +
-Key question +
-  * what are good questions to ask? +
-    * [[http://www.scribd.com/doc/18675626/Art-of-Powerful-Questions|The art of powerful questions]] +
-  * how to better structure/encourage designing the core question?  +
-    * [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Questions_%28game%29|questions game]] +
-  * how can we encourage an 'inquiring state of mind'? +
-  * why does it seem more difficult to phrase questions rather than stating problems? +
- +
-Mapping the present situation +
-  * what are different ways to map-out the present situation surrounding the key question? +
-    * [[KPUU Framework]] +
-  * when is this step necessary? when can it be reduced/removed? +
-  * does it help to talk about things that are fixed, or constraints that exist? +
- +
-Key factors +
-  * how to best visualise and cluster the relationships between key factors +
-    * "interrogate anomalies:  data or incidents that seem anomalous - that somehow “don’t fit”, seem weird or don’t make sense, should receive immediate attention.  They could be pointers to a shift in the system as a whole" From: http://silberzahnjones.com/2012/10/04/crafting-non-linear-strategy-the-nature-of-the-problem/#more-799 +
-  * are we talking only about success criteria here? +
- +
-Macro trends +
-  * how much analysis is appropriate for the types of scenarios and prehearsals we’re making? +
-  * how can we make assumptions and guesswork more apparent (i.e. indicating how drivers can be based on an assumption, guess or 'fact')? +
-  * what is the relevance of facts and data related to macro trends in experiential futurism?  +
-  * how can we have a more constructive discussion about the macro trends which results in something more meaningful than a list of assumptions? +
-  * how do we look at drivers as dynamic forces? should we be looking at responses to trends rather than trends in general? (nouns -> verbs) +
-  * what are existing ways of discussing trends with groups of people? +
-  * should we make our own STEEP cards to avoid the 'business bias'? +
-  * are there other well understood methods to group trends other than the customary STEEP (in which cultural changes seem to be clumped in with social or political)? +
-  * is there another way to look at large scale changes aside from trends (without having to do a PhD in each of the changes)? +
-  * how effective are these methods and how can we usefully evalute them? +
-  * what does a 'futurism without prediction' look like? +
- +
-Ranking critical uncertainties +
-  * what are different ways in which this is done by others? +
- +
-Scenarios +
-  * when to use one, two, three or more axes? +
-  * how to better structure building scenario skeletons with guiding questions (which questions could be generalised? +
- +
- +
-From scenarios to story-worlds +
-  * what techniques can we use to flesh out the scenarios into interesting stories +
-  * what elements do we need in a scenario database? +
-  * how to create rich characters and meaningful plots? +
- +
-Scenario testing (signals, how to get from here to there) +
-  * how is this done by others? +
-  * what are important things to focus on? +
- +
-Visualising +
-  * which methods could we use to visualise possible futures? +
- +
-Prototyping +
-  * which methods could we use to prototype possible futures? +
- +
-Prehearsals +
-  * how to design them? +
-  * how to host them? +
-  * how to evaluate them? +
- +
-Follow-up +
-  * How can we follow-up what happens to the groups after we finish the workshops (especially to understand what happens to commitments to actions and preferred possible futures)? +
-  * How much do we need to be involved in the follow-up? +
- +
- +
- +
- +
- +
-==== scenario database ==== +
- +
-20140205 While editing [[scenarios]] on the libarynth it became apparent how tricky it is to keep a consistency in information and layout of the scenarios. The scenario database we're planning to make should make this easier. Components that seem to be needed in all scenarios: +
- +
-  * what is the question? +
-  * what are the scenario axes? +
-  * sometimes we have a short answer to the question (usually created after making the scenarios) +
-  * how far in the future does the scenario take place? +
-  * scenario description +
-  * genaral image(s) +
-  * more specific/clarifying images +
-  * links to the pages of related scenarios (and a 'parent' page that describes the workshop goals etc. - not sure if we should include this in the database?) +
- +
-should we try to contextualise the scenarios directly in the database?  +
-  * a section with links to projects/theories/examples of (the beginnings of) this scenario already taking place today +
-  * section on how the scenario is turned into a prehearsal (could be in the form of a 'day in the life of..."? +
-  * reflections on the prehearsal +
-  * etc. +
- +
-or should we keep the database only as a 'short story collection'? +
- +
-==== software & protocols ==== +
-  * open formats > closed formats +
-  * utf-8 > ascii/latin-1/etc+ +
-  * documents +
-    * utf-8 text or ODF (libreoffice, openoffice) for editable docs +
-    * pdf for reference & archiving +
-    * [[:graph_drawing#vue_visual_understanding_environment|VUE]] for diagrams +
-  * semi syncronous; email, twitter, irc (freenode -> #ff ?) +
-  * asyncronous; dokuwiki, django, gitlab +
-  * algorithmic sketching; racket, common lisp, python, git +
-  * online  +
-    * **libarynth** for text, tangents and collation -> http://libarynth.org +
-    * **flickr** for image matter -> https://secure.flickr.com/photos/foam/ +
-    * **vimeo** for video matter -> http://vimeo.com/fo4m +
-    * **zotero** for library and references -> https://www.zotero.org/groups/foam_library +
-  * potentially  +
-    * tumblr, cargo, diasp, other? +
-    * prediction book +
-    * wikipedia +
- +
  • future_fabulators/confabulation.txt
  • Last modified: 2015-05-20 10:10
  • by nik