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future_fabulators:food_horizons [2014-04-01 07:51] – nik | future_fabulators:food_horizons [2014-04-23 15:27] – [Food Horizons] maja | ||
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==== Food Horizons ==== | ==== Food Horizons ==== | ||
- | a page to collect drivers of change related to food, health and wellness, to design scenarios | + | On this page we collect drivers of change |
+ | |||
+ | See the whole design process on the [[food futures]] page. | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==== Current situation ==== | ||
+ | |||
+ | (looking back from 50-100 years to today, focusing on problems and possibilities) | ||
+ | |||
+ | * hygiene, pasteurisation and the (anti)bacterial movement (better understanding of pathogens, pesticides, antibiotics and the rising dangers of antibiotic resistance) | ||
+ | * industrialisation of food production, focus on efficiency and feeding more people; less focus on taste, more on nutrition | ||
+ | * increased use of sugar, fat and meat (1995 the first deep-fried mars bar in Scotland) | ||
+ | * proliferation of cold chain transport - larger volume and longer distances (allowing for delocalisation and specialisation of production), | ||
+ | * consumption patterns are changing: USA influence, food from around the world, seasonal flattening; food consumption moves from social to functional | ||
+ | * disposal: city scale, burned rather than composted | ||
+ | * wide spread of (bio-accumulative) toxins (packaging, hormones, slow-acting poisons, also in organic farming) | ||
+ | * the battle between bacteria and chemicals (and people who prefer one or the other) | ||
+ | * complex food distribution and production (present: focus on reduction of complexity and shortening of supply-chains) | ||
+ | * growing awareness of health risks | ||
+ | * present: refocusing on the local, respecialisation, | ||
+ | * vicious circle of more people - more food: focus on cheap and voluminous rather than nutritious; lowering of household' | ||
+ | * dangerous footprint of meat production (concentration of animal manure) and other industrial byproducts | ||
+ | * internet is changing distribution and consumption patterns, as well as non-industrial food production; information spreads faster and supply-chains are becoming more convoluted and personalised | ||
+ | * proliferation of foodies movements focused on healthy, tasty, virtuoso food preparation and consumption; | ||
+ | * open source food movements | ||
+ | * diet cults (and disconnection from food production and waste) | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | ====drivers==== | ||
+ | |||
+ | Social | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Health | ||
+ | * Diet | ||
+ | * Aging | ||
+ | * Urbanisation | ||
+ | * Food Culture | ||
+ | |||
+ | Technological | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Agricultural Technology | ||
+ | * GMO / Synthetic biology | ||
+ | * Internet of Things | ||
+ | * Customisation | ||
+ | * Antibiotic availability | ||
+ | * Food science | ||
+ | |||
+ | Economic | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Energy | ||
+ | * Financing | ||
+ | * Equality | ||
+ | * Dominant crops | ||
+ | * Scale | ||
+ | * Patenting | ||
+ | |||
+ | Environment | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Pollution | ||
+ | * Unpredictability | ||
+ | * Degradation | ||
+ | * Availability of raw materials (water, seeds, soil...) | ||
+ | |||
+ | Political | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Conservatism | ||
+ | * Nationalism | ||
+ | * Unconditional Basic Income | ||
+ | * Food Security | ||
+ | * Transnational Agreements | ||
+ | * Laws and Regulations | ||
+ | |||
+ | Thematically clustered drivers: | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{> | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{> | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{> | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | ====causal layered analysis==== | ||
+ | |||
+ | Analysis of thematically clustered drivers looking at their social causes, underlying worldviews and cultural myths: | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{> | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{> | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{> | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | ====Drivers in detail ==== | ||
+ | |||
+ | Horizon: less than 50 years. | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | ===Technological=== | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Development of " | ||
+ | * > adverse environmental impacts such as pollution & reduction in biodiversity [[http:// | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Development of GMO technology > combined with increased globalization of economy (see Economical trends), increase of GMO-food & GMO-seeds market share [[http:// | ||
+ | * > unknown health effects | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Existing minority, stable or decreasing, of small-scale sustainable farmers ([[http:// | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Appearance of luxury technofood (like [[http:// | ||
+ | * > only for very rich people, with [[http:// | ||
+ | |||
+ | ===Environmental=== | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Increasing pollution of water, soil and atmosphere | ||
+ | * > increasing systemic diseases such as cancer & neurodegenerative medicines | ||
+ | * > potentially contributing to a loss in biodiversity. | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Decrease of soil fertility > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability. | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Changes in desertification and rainfall patterns > decrease of available arable soil surface > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food > starvation for specific locations & poor people, adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability. | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Climate change | ||
+ | * Increase of Extreme Climatic Events, e.g. Floods & Droughts | ||
+ | * > localized food scarcity; | ||
+ | * > when combined with hyper-specialization of food crops per location (see Economic trends), world-wide scarcity of specific ingredients. | ||
+ | * Change in seasonal patterns and average climatic conditions > change of food crops production balance worldwide. | ||
+ | * See detailed results from IPCC report below. | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Decrease of Biodiversity > decrease of edible animal & plant species > reduced resilience to change in seasonal patterns & climatic conditions > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food | ||
+ | * > starvation for specific locations & poor people | ||
+ | * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population | ||
+ | * > geopolitical instability. | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Decrease of available energetic resources > Increase on " | ||
+ | * > starvation for specific locations & poor people | ||
+ | * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population | ||
+ | * > geopolitical instability. | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | reference: IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 7 "Food Security and Food Production Systems" | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{ar5_fig_spm_2a.png}} | ||
+ | |||
+ | IPCC AR5 WG2 Figure SPM.2a | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==Change in Plant Crops Production== | ||
+ | |||
+ | * India: global loss in cereal production. | ||
+ | * Brazil: loss in cereal, drastic increase in beans. | ||
+ | * US: no big change in cerelas, slight increase in Soy | ||
+ | * Europe: | ||
+ | * Increase in plant crops in Boreal, Alpine, North & Central Atlantic & South Continental climates. | ||
+ | * Moderate change in Continental North. | ||
+ | * Decrease in Atlantic South & Mediterranean climates. | ||
+ | * Australia: global decrease. | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==Change in Livestock Production== | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Africa: less Livestock & Dairy | ||
+ | * Europe: | ||
+ | * France: no impact on dairy yield, but impact both positive and negative + instability on forage fields. | ||
+ | * Italy & Netherlands: | ||
+ | * Disease increase: Bluetongue virus | ||
+ | * Oceania: decrease everywhere but South Australia. | ||
+ | * South America: | ||
+ | * Andean mountains: decrease of every livestock but sheep, which increase. | ||
+ | * Argentina & Chile: more beef cattle. | ||
+ | * Columbia, Venezuela & Ecuador: less beef cattle. | ||
+ | * North America: strong decrease of Dairy yields. | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{ : | ||
+ | |||
+ | ===Economic=== | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Increased globalization of economy | ||
+ | * Prevalence of large-scale over small-scale food production > environmental impacts such as pollution & reduction of soil fertility > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted | ||
+ | * > starvation for specific locations & poor people; | ||
+ | * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; | ||
+ | * > geopolitical instability. | ||
+ | * Hyper-[[http:// | ||
+ | * > starvation for specific locations & poor people; | ||
+ | * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; | ||
+ | * > geopolitical instability. | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Increased financiarisation of economy | ||
+ | * [[http:// | ||
+ | * > starvation for specific locations & poor people; | ||
+ | * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; | ||
+ | * > geopolitical instability. | ||
+ | |||
+ | * [[http:// | ||
+ | * > starvation for specific locations & poor people | ||
+ | * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population | ||
+ | * > geopolitical instability. | ||
+ | |||
+ | * To a minor extent, localized alternative economies, such as [[http:// | ||
+ | * > reduces inequities within economic players at local scale | ||
+ | * > better global health at local population scale. | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Global game changer: if a major demographic group, global economic player & industrial producer installs basic income. It is about to be [[http:// | ||
+ | * > [[http:// | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | ===Social & Cultural === | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Increase of global population > more food needed > combined with reduction of soil availability & fertility, reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + food heavily polluted or low in nutrients > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability. | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Increase of urban population | ||
+ | * Massive amount of energy used to bring food to urban citizens | ||
+ | * > increase energetic resource depletion rate (also needed for industrial food production) > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food | ||
+ | * > starvation for specific locations & poor people | ||
+ | * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population | ||
+ | * > geopolitical instability. | ||
+ | * > increase of atmospheric, | ||
+ | * > adverse health effects. | ||
+ | * Increased urban pressure on neighboring fertile soils > Reducing availability of fertile soils > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food | ||
+ | * > starvation for specific locations & poor people | ||
+ | * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population | ||
+ | * > geopolitical instability. | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Prevalent cultural preference to industrially-produced food (Nestlé, McDonalds, Pizza Hut, Exki...) | ||
+ | * > existing demand stimulates production & thus industrial agriculture | ||
+ | * > pollution | ||
+ | * > adverse health effects | ||
+ | * > low food diversity | ||
+ | * > adverse health effects | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Most prevalent religions & related food regimes (Pork-free Islam & Bee-free hinduism ?) | ||
+ | * > changing the demand thus the production balance of food crops at world scale ? | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Minority, stable or increasing, adhering to the GASAPs, Slow Food & Organic Food movements > combined with participation to alternative economic systems (see Economical trends), localized positive impacts on available food diversity & global health. | ||
+ | |||
+ | ===Political=== | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Increase of patenting & decrease of authorized crop varieties [[http:// | ||
+ | * > reduction of animal & plant species available for cooking > global impoverishment of food culture. | ||
+ | * > decreased resilience to change in seasonal patterns & average climatic conditions > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food | ||
+ | * > starvation for specific locations & poor people | ||
+ | * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population | ||
+ | * > geopolitical instability. | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Increase of far-right, nationalist and identity-focused movements [[http:// | ||
- | eg. | ||
- | https:// | ||
- | http:// | ||
====misc/ | ====misc/ | ||
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* e.g. http:// | * e.g. http:// | ||
* e.g. https:// | * e.g. https:// | ||
- | infographics from foodnetwork http:// | + | * https:// |
+ | * http:// | ||
+ | * infographics from foodnetwork http:// | ||
* historical changes in ingredients http:// | * historical changes in ingredients http:// | ||
* "The Honeywell Kitchen Computer or H316 [...] represented the first time a computer was offered as a consumer product." | * "The Honeywell Kitchen Computer or H316 [...] represented the first time a computer was offered as a consumer product." |