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--- future_fabulators:food_horizons [2014-04-01 07:53] – [misc/sort] nik
+++ future_fabulators:food_horizons [2014-10-25 16:02] (current) – [misc/notes/sort] maja
@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
 ==== Food Horizons ====
-a page to collect drivers of change related to food, health and wellness, to design scenarios and a menu for http://fo.am/late-lab-open-sauces/
+On this page we collect drivers of change and [[horizon scanning]] notes, related to food, health and wellness. This is a preliminary step in the design of [[food scenarios]], that we then translated into a [[latelab_menu|tasting menu]] for [[http://fo.am/late-lab-open-sauces/|Latelab Open Sauces]] at the Edinburgh Science Festival.
-eg.
+See the whole design process on the [[food futures]] page.
-https://delicious.com/zzkt/food \\
-http://agalmic.org/tagged/food
-====misc/sort====
+==== Current situation ====
+(looking back from 50-100 years to today, focusing on problems and possibilities)
+  * hygiene, pasteurisation and the (anti)bacterial movement (better understanding of pathogens, pesticides, antibiotics and the rising dangers of antibiotic resistance)
+  * industrialisation of food production, focus on efficiency and feeding more people; less focus on taste, more on nutrition
+  * increased use of sugar, fat and meat (1995 the first deep-fried mars bar in Scotland)
+  * proliferation of cold chain transport - larger volume and longer distances (allowing for delocalisation and specialisation of production), availability of a wide range of products
+  * consumption patterns are changing: USA influence, food from around the world, seasonal flattening; food consumption moves from social to functional
+  * disposal: city scale, burned rather than composted
+  * wide spread of (bio-accumulative) toxins (packaging, hormones, slow-acting poisons, also in organic farming)
+  * the battle between bacteria and chemicals (and people who prefer one or the other)
+  * complex food distribution and production (present: focus on reduction of complexity and shortening of supply-chains)
+  * growing awareness of health risks
+  * present: refocusing on the local, respecialisation, relocalisation, bringing back forgotten varieties and species, focus on (hyper)seasonal products
+  * vicious circle of more people - more food: focus on cheap and voluminous rather than nutritious; lowering of household's food budgets - health risks due to consumption of junk food
+  * dangerous footprint of meat production (concentration of animal manure) and other industrial byproducts
+  * internet is changing distribution and consumption patterns, as well as non-industrial food production; information spreads faster and supply-chains are becoming more convoluted and personalised
+  * proliferation of foodies movements focused on healthy, tasty, virtuoso food preparation and consumption;
+  * open source food movements
+  * diet cults (and disconnection from food production and waste)
+====drivers====
+Social
+  * Health
+  * Diet
+  * Aging
+  * Urbanisation
+  * Food Culture
+Technological
+  * Agricultural Technology
+  * GMO / Synthetic biology
+  * Internet of Things
+  * Customisation
+  * Antibiotic availability
+  * Food science
+Economic
+  * Energy
+  * Financing
+  * Equality
+  * Dominant crops
+  * Scale
+  * Patenting
+Environment
+  * Pollution
+  * Unpredictability
+  * Degradation
+  * Availability of raw materials (water, seeds, soil...)
+Political
+  * Conservatism
+  * Nationalism
+  * Unconditional Basic Income
+  * Food Security
+  * Transnational Agreements
+  * Laws and Regulations
+Thematically clustered drivers:
+{{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/13585393644/}} \\
+{{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/13585072463/}} \\
+{{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/13585034475/}} \\
+====causal layered analysis====
+Analysis of thematically clustered drivers looking at their social causes, underlying worldviews and cultural myths:
+{{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/13604606344/}} \\
+{{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/13604224645/}} \\
+{{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/13604554614/}} \\
+====Drivers in detail ====
+Horizon: less than 50 years.
+===Technological===
+   * Development of "resource-efficient" large-scale agriculture techniques (agro-ecological systems using bio-sourced fertilizers, methanisation...) [[http://www.reporterre.net/spip.php?|(in french), article on Reporterre on French government's strategy towards "industrial agro-ecology"]]
+     * > adverse environmental impacts such as pollution & reduction in biodiversity [[http://www.reporterre.net/spip.php?article4054|(in French), article on Reporterre on adverse environmental effects of large-scale methanisation]]
+   * Development of GMO technology > combined with increased globalization of economy (see Economical trends), increase of GMO-food & GMO-seeds market share [[http://rue89.nouvelobs.com/2014/03/29/mobilisation-generale-contre-grand-mechant-marche-transatlantique-251038|(in French), article on how the US-EU free-trade zone will bring GMO food to Europe]]
+     * > unknown health effects
+   * Existing minority, stable or decreasing, of small-scale sustainable farmers ([[http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-12267561|promoted by Right-to-Food special rapporteur Olivier de Schutter]]) > preserving bio- and techno-diversity > increasing resilience to environmental crisis negative effects and mitigating the risk of such effects.
+   * Appearance of luxury technofood (like [[http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-23576143|the lab-grown hamburger]])
+     * > only for very rich people, with [[http://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2013/08/is-lab-grown-meat-good-for-us/278778/|unknown impact on health]].
+===Environmental===
+   * Increasing pollution of water, soil and atmosphere
+     * > increasing systemic diseases such as cancer & neurodegenerative medicines
+     * > potentially contributing to a loss in biodiversity.
+   * Decrease of soil fertility > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability.
+   * Changes in desertification and rainfall patterns > decrease of available arable soil surface > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food > starvation for specific locations & poor people, adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability.
+   * Climate change
+     * Increase of Extreme Climatic Events, e.g. Floods & Droughts
+       * > localized food scarcity;
+       * > when combined with hyper-specialization of food crops per location (see Economic trends), world-wide scarcity of specific ingredients.
+     * Change in seasonal patterns and average climatic conditions > change of food crops production balance worldwide.
+       * See detailed results from IPCC report below.
+   * Decrease of Biodiversity > decrease of edible animal & plant species > reduced resilience to change in seasonal patterns & climatic conditions > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food
+     * > starvation for specific locations & poor people
+     * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population
+     * > geopolitical instability.
+   * Decrease of available energetic resources > Increase on "traveling food" prices > when combined with increased inequities in personal wealth (see Economical Ttrends), reduce of food ingredients availability for most of the population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food
+     * > starvation for specific locations & poor people
+     * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population
+     * > geopolitical instability.
+reference: IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 7 "Food Security and Food Production Systems" http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/images/uploads/WGIIAR5-Chap7_FGDall.pdf
+{{ar5_fig_spm_2a.png}}
+IPCC AR5 WG2 Figure SPM.2a
+==Change in Plant Crops Production==
+   * India: global loss in cereal production.
+   * Brazil: loss in cereal, drastic increase in beans.
+   * US: no big change in cerelas, slight increase in Soy
+   * Europe:
+     * Increase in plant crops in Boreal, Alpine, North & Central Atlantic & South Continental climates.
+     * Moderate change in Continental North.
+     * Decrease in Atlantic South & Mediterranean climates.
+   * Australia: global decrease.
+==Change in Livestock Production==
+   * Africa: less Livestock & Dairy
+   * Europe:
+     * France: no impact on dairy yield, but impact both positive and negative + instability on forage fields.
+     * Italy & Netherlands: bad for mozzarella & gouda
+     * Disease increase: Bluetongue virus
+   * Oceania: decrease everywhere but South Australia.
+   * South America:
+     * Andean mountains: decrease of every livestock but sheep, which increase.
+     * Argentina & Chile: more beef cattle.
+     * Columbia, Venezuela & Ecuador: less beef cattle.
+   * North America: strong decrease of Dairy yields.
+{{ :future_fabulators:giec_figure_ge_ne_rale_-_copie.jpg?800 |}}
+===Economic===
+   * Increased globalization of economy
+     * Prevalence of large-scale over small-scale food production > environmental impacts such as pollution & reduction of soil fertility > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted
+       * > starvation for specific locations & poor people;
+       * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population;
+       * > geopolitical instability.
+     * Hyper-[[http://www.postcarbon.org/article/305585-specialization-and-globalization-genies-at-our|specialisation]] of food crops grown on a given territory > reduced resilience to extreme climatic events (see Environmental trends) > potentially massive scarcity of a essential food crops > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted
+       * > starvation for specific locations & poor people;
+       * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population;
+       * > geopolitical instability.
+   * Increased financiarisation of economy
+     * [[http://necsi.edu/research/social/foodprices.html|Adverse effects of speculation on food prices]] > combined with increasing inequities in personal wealth, reduction of food availability and diversity for most of the world population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food
+       * > starvation for specific locations & poor people;
+       * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population;
+       * > geopolitical instability.
+   * [[http://www.inegalites.fr/spip.php?page=analyse&id_article=1911&id_groupe=20&id_rubrique=28&id_mot=15|Increasing inequities in personal wealth]] > reduction of food availability and diversity for most of the world population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food
+     * > starvation for specific locations & poor people
+     * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population
+     * > geopolitical instability.
+   * To a minor extent, localized alternative economies, such as [[http://www.reporterre.net/spip.php?article4806|(in French) integral cooperatives]], local currencies, barter networks & gift economy initiatives
+     * > reduces inequities within economic players at local scale
+       * > better global health at local population scale.
+   * Global game changer: if a major demographic group, global economic player & industrial producer installs basic income. It is about to be [[http://bien.ch/fr/node/417|voted by the population in Switzerland]] and has been proposed as a [[http://basicincome2013.eu/|popular initiative in Europe]]
+     * > [[http://www.projet-decroissance.net/?p=1640|depending on how it would be defined]], it may reverse the large-scale industrial dynamics and may induced better global health & wellness results.
+===Social & Cultural ===
+   * Increase of global population > more food needed > combined with reduction of soil availability & fertility, reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + food heavily polluted or low in nutrients > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability.
+   * Increase of urban population
+     * Massive amount of energy used to bring food to urban citizens
+       * > increase energetic resource depletion rate (also needed for industrial food production) > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food
+         * > starvation for specific locations & poor people
+         * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population
+         * > geopolitical instability.
+       * > increase of atmospheric, water and soil pollution due to massive transport
+         * > adverse health effects.
+     * Increased urban pressure on neighboring fertile soils > Reducing availability of fertile soils > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food
+       * > starvation for specific locations & poor people
+       * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population
+       * > geopolitical instability.
+   * Prevalent cultural preference to industrially-produced food (Nestlé, McDonalds, Pizza Hut, Exki...)
+     * > existing demand stimulates production & thus industrial agriculture
+       * > pollution
+         * > adverse health effects
+     * > low food diversity
+       * > adverse health effects
+   * Most prevalent religions & related food regimes (Pork-free Islam & Bee-free hinduism ?)
+     * > changing the demand thus the production balance of food crops at world scale ?
+   * Minority, stable or increasing, adhering to the GASAPs, Slow Food & Organic Food movements > combined with participation to alternative economic systems (see Economical trends), localized positive impacts on available food diversity & global health.
+===Political===
+   * Increase of patenting & decrease of authorized crop varieties [[http://blogs.mediapart.fr/blog/malto-cortese/221113/agriculteurs-et-jardiniers-seront-ils-bientot-obliges-de-cultiver-dans-la-clandestinite|(in French), an article from Mediapart on seeds patenting]]
+     * > reduction of animal & plant species available for cooking > global impoverishment of food culture.
+     * > decreased resilience to change in seasonal patterns & average climatic conditions > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food
+       * > starvation for specific locations & poor people
+       * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population
+       * > geopolitical instability.
+   * Increase of far-right, nationalist and identity-focused movements [[http://www.lesinrocks.com/2012/05/29/actualite/le-fantasme-dune-arme-de-nonazis-11262225/|(in French), an article from les Inrocks analysing the situation of far-right parties in Europe]] > (violent) incentive back to traditional culture, and therefore cooking > reduction of food ingredients diversity at local scale ?
+====misc/notes/sort====
+"People tend to find the taste of Soylent to be familiar: the predominant sensation is one of doughiness. The liquid is smooth but grainy in your mouth, and it has a yeasty, comforting blandness about it." [[http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2014/05/12/140512fa_fact_widdicombe?currentPage=all&mobify=0|Could Soylent Replace Food?]]
+  * Several food experts on food futures: http://time.com/3482452/future-of-food/
   * e.g. http://www.cookingforengineers.com/recipe/34/Garlic-Roasted-Potatoes/trn
   * e.g. https://www.quora.com/Cooking/What-are-some-technique-to-chopping-vegetables
+  * https://delicious.com/zzkt/food
+  * http://agalmic.org/tagged/food
   * infographics from foodnetwork http://www.wired.com/design/2013/10/26-amazing-food-infographics/
   * historical changes in ingredients http://cryptoforest.blogspot.be/2013/11/charting-geographical-origins-of.html