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future_fabulators:food_horizons [2014-04-01 15:02] – michka | future_fabulators:food_horizons [2014-04-01 16:02] – michka | ||
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====Trends per Type==== | ====Trends per Type==== | ||
- | For < 50 years. | + | Horizon: less than 50 years. |
+ | |||
+ | ">" | ||
+ | |||
+ | [in square brackets are the references] | ||
===Social=== | ===Social=== | ||
Line 29: | Line 33: | ||
===Technological=== | ===Technological=== | ||
- | * Appearance of luxury technofood (like the lab-grown hamburger). | + | * Development of "resource-efficient" large-scale |
- | * Development of resource-efficient agriculture techniques (agro-ecological systems) both large-sacle (bio-sourced fertilizers, | + | * > adverse environmental impacts such as pollution & reduction in biodiversity [[http:// |
- | | + | |
+ | | ||
+ | * > unknown health effects | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Existing minority, stable or decreasing, of small-scale sustainable farmers > preserving bio- and techno-diversity > increasing resilience to environmental crisis negative effects. | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Appearance of luxury technofood (like [[http:// | ||
+ | * > only for very rich people, with [[http:// | ||
===Environmental=== | ===Environmental=== | ||
- | * Massive pollution of water, soil and atmosphere. | + | * Massive pollution of water, soil and atmosphere |
- | * Decrease of soil fertility | + | * Decrease of soil fertility |
- | * Increase of desertification | + | * Increase of desertification |
* Climate change | * Climate change | ||
- | * Increase of Extreme Climatic Events, f. i. Floods & Droughts > localized high food scarcity. | + | * Increase of Extreme Climatic Events, f. i. Floods & Droughts > localized high food scarcity; when combined with hyper-specialization |
- | * Change in seasonal patterns and average climatic conditions > change | + | * Change in seasonal patterns and average climatic conditions > change |
- | * Decrease of Biodiversity > Decrease | + | * Decrease of Biodiversity > decrease |
+ | * Decrease of available energetic resources > Increase on " | ||
- | ===Economic=== | + | ===Economical=== |
* Increased globalization of economy | * Increased globalization of economy | ||
- | * Hyper-specialisation of food crops grown on a given territory > what happens when transport becomes more expensive ? | + | * Prevalence of large-scale over small-scale food production > environmental impacts such as pollution & reduction of soil fertility > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability. |
+ | * Hyper-specialisation of food crops grown on a given territory > reduced resilience to extreme climatic events (see Environmental trends) > potentially massive scarcity of a essential food crops > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability. | ||
* Increased financiarisation of economy | * Increased financiarisation of economy | ||
- | * Adverse effects of speculation on food prices > Reduction | + | * Adverse effects of speculation on food prices > combined with increasing inequities in personal wealth, reduction |
- | * Increasing inequities in personal wealth > Reduction | + | * Increasing inequities in personal wealth > reduction |
+ | * To a minor extent, localized alternative economies, | ||
+ | * Global game changer: if a major demographic population, global economic player & industrial producer installs basic income... > may reverse the large-scale industrial dynamics > may induced better global health & wellness results. | ||
===Demographic=== | ===Demographic=== | ||
- | * Increase of global population > More food needed | + | * Increase of global population > more food needed |
* Increase of urban population | * Increase of urban population | ||
- | * Massive amount of energy needed to bring food to urban citizens > Increase | + | * Massive amount of energy needed to bring food to urban citizens |
- | * Increased urban pressure on neighboring fertile soils > Reducing availability of fertile soils | + | |
+ | * > increase of atmospheric, | ||
+ | * Increased urban pressure on neighboring fertile soils > Reducing availability of fertile soils > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability. | ||
===Cultural=== | ===Cultural=== | ||
- | * Most prevalent religions & related food regimes (Pork-free Islam & Bee-free hinduism ?) | + | * Most prevalent religions & related food regimes (Pork-free Islam & Bee-free hinduism ?) > changing the demand thus the production balance of food crops at world scale ? |
- | | + | |
- | | + | |
===Political=== | ===Political=== | ||
+ | * Increase of patenting & decrease of authorized crop varieties | ||
+ | * > reduction of animal & plant species available for cooking > global impoverishment of food culture. | ||
+ | * > decreased resilience to change in seasonal patterns & average climatic conditions > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability. | ||
+ | * Increase of far-right, nationalist and identity-focused movements > (violent) incentive back to traditional cooking > reduction of food ingredients diversity at local scale ? | ||
+ | |||
- | * Increase of far-right, nationalist and identity-focused movements > back to traditional cooking & reduced diversity of cooking | + | ===Boiling it down=== |
- | * Increase of patenting & reduction of authorized varieties > reduction of animal & plant species available for cooking. | + |