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future_fabulators:food_horizons [2014-04-01 15:23] – michka | future_fabulators:food_horizons [2014-04-04 13:33] – [drivers] maja | ||
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==== Food Horizons ==== | ==== Food Horizons ==== | ||
- | a page to collect drivers of change and [[horizon scanning]] notes related to food, health and wellness, to design scenarios and a menu for http:// | + | a page to collect drivers of change and [[horizon scanning]] notes related to food, health and wellness, to design scenarios and a menu for http:// |
eg. | eg. | ||
Line 7: | Line 7: | ||
http:// | http:// | ||
- | ====misc/ | ||
- | |||
- | * e.g. http:// | ||
- | * e.g. https:// | ||
- | * infographics from foodnetwork http:// | ||
- | * historical changes in ingredients http:// | ||
- | * "The Honeywell Kitchen Computer or H316 [...] represented the first time a computer was offered as a consumer product." | ||
- | * " | ||
- | * "A Work in Progress: Notes on Food, Cooking and Creativity" | ||
- | * " | ||
- | * network analysis " | ||
- | * general principles of cooking with coconut milk. http:// | ||
- | * An app for flavour profiling. https:// | ||
====Trends per Type==== | ====Trends per Type==== | ||
- | For < 50 years. | + | Horizon: less than 50 years. |
+ | |||
+ | ">" | ||
+ | |||
+ | [in square brackets are the references] **NO`tE:** you can also add footnotes like so((well researched and referenced)) | ||
===Social=== | ===Social=== | ||
Line 29: | Line 20: | ||
===Technological=== | ===Technological=== | ||
- | * Development of " | + | * Development of " |
- | * Appearance of luxury technofood | + | |
- | | + | |
- | * Existing minority, stable or decreasing, of small-scale sustainable farmers, holding | + | |
+ | | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Existing minority, stable or decreasing, of small-scale sustainable farmers | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Appearance of luxury technofood (like [[http:// | ||
+ | * > only for very rich people, with [[http:// | ||
===Environmental=== | ===Environmental=== | ||
- | | + | |
+ | | ||
+ | * > potentially contributing to a loss in biodiversity. | ||
* Decrease of soil fertility > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability. | * Decrease of soil fertility > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability. | ||
- | * Increase of desertification > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food > starvation for specific locations & poor people, adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability. | + | |
+ | * Changes in desertification | ||
* Climate change | * Climate change | ||
- | * Increase of Extreme Climatic Events, | + | * Increase of Extreme Climatic Events, |
+ | | ||
+ | * > when combined with hyper-specialization of food crops per location (see Economic | ||
* Change in seasonal patterns and average climatic conditions > change of food crops production balance worldwide. | * Change in seasonal patterns and average climatic conditions > change of food crops production balance worldwide. | ||
- | * Decrease of Biodiversity > decrease of available food crops; reduced resilience to change in seasinal patterns & climatic conditions > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability. | + | * See detailed results from IPCC report below. |
- | * Decrease of available energetic resources > Increase on " | + | |
- | ===Economical=== | + | * Decrease of Biodiversity > decrease of edible animal & plant species > reduced resilience to change in seasonal patterns & climatic conditions > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food |
+ | * > starvation for specific locations & poor people | ||
+ | * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population | ||
+ | * > geopolitical instability. | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Decrease of available energetic resources > Increase on " | ||
+ | * > starvation for specific locations & poor people | ||
+ | * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population | ||
+ | * > geopolitical instability. | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | reference: IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 7 "Food Security and Food Production Systems" | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{ar5_fig_spm_2a.png}} | ||
+ | |||
+ | IPCC AR5 WG2 Figure SPM.2a | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==Change in Plant Crops Production== | ||
+ | |||
+ | * India: global loss in cereal production. | ||
+ | * Brazil: loss in cereal, drastic increase in beans. | ||
+ | * US: no big change in cerelas, slight increase in Soy | ||
+ | * Europe: | ||
+ | * Increase in plant crops in Boreal, Alpine, North & Central Atlantic & South Continental climates. | ||
+ | * Moderate change in Continental North. | ||
+ | * Decrease in Atlantic South & Mediterranean climates. | ||
+ | * Australia: global decrease. | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==Change in Livestock Production== | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Africa: less Livestock & Dairy | ||
+ | * Europe: | ||
+ | * France: no impact on dairy yield, but impact both positive and negative + instability on forage fields. | ||
+ | * Italy & Netherlands: | ||
+ | * Disease increase: Bluetongue virus | ||
+ | * Oceania: decrease everywhere but South Australia. | ||
+ | * South America: | ||
+ | * Andean mountains: decrease of every livestock but sheep, which increase. | ||
+ | * Argentina & Chile: more beef cattle. | ||
+ | * Columbia, Venezuela & Ecuador: less beef cattle. | ||
+ | * North America: strong decrease of Dairy yields. | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{ : | ||
+ | |||
+ | ===Economic=== | ||
* Increased globalization of economy | * Increased globalization of economy | ||
- | * Prevalence of large-scale over small-scale food production > environmental impacts such as pollution & reduction of soil fertility | + | * Prevalence of large-scale over small-scale food production > environmental impacts such as pollution & reduction of soil fertility |
- | * Hyper-specialisation of food crops grown on a given territory > reduced resilience to extreme climatic events (see Environmental trends); | + | * > starvation for specific locations & poor people; |
+ | * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; | ||
+ | * > geopolitical instability. | ||
+ | * Hyper-[[http:// | ||
+ | * > starvation for specific locations & poor people; | ||
+ | * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; | ||
+ | * > geopolitical instability. | ||
* Increased financiarisation of economy | * Increased financiarisation of economy | ||
- | * Adverse effects of speculation on food prices > Reduction | + | |
- | * Increasing inequities in personal wealth > Reduction | + | * > starvation for specific locations & poor people; |
+ | * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; | ||
+ | * > geopolitical instability. | ||
+ | |||
+ | | ||
+ | * > starvation for specific locations & poor people | ||
+ | * > adverse | ||
+ | * > geopolitical instability. | ||
+ | |||
+ | * To a minor extent, localized alternative economies, | ||
+ | * > reduces inequities within economic players at local scale | ||
+ | * > better global health at local population scale. | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Global game changer: if a major demographic group, global economic player & industrial producer installs basic income. It is about to be [[http:// | ||
+ | * > [[http:// | ||
===Demographic=== | ===Demographic=== | ||
- | * Increase of global population > More food needed | + | * Increase of global population > more food needed |
* Increase of urban population | * Increase of urban population | ||
- | * Massive amount of energy | + | * Massive amount of energy |
- | * Increased urban pressure on neighboring fertile soils > Reducing availability of fertile soils | + | |
+ | * > starvation for specific locations & poor people | ||
+ | * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population | ||
+ | * > geopolitical instability. | ||
+ | * > increase of atmospheric, | ||
+ | * > adverse health effects. | ||
+ | * Increased urban pressure on neighboring fertile soils > Reducing availability of fertile soils > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food | ||
+ | * > starvation for specific locations & poor people | ||
+ | * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population | ||
+ | * > geopolitical instability. | ||
===Cultural=== | ===Cultural=== | ||
- | * Most prevalent religions & related food regimes (Pork-free Islam & Bee-free hinduism ?) | + | * Prevalent cultural preference to industrially-produced food (Nestlé, McDonalds, Pizza Hut, Exki...) |
- | | + | * > existing demand stimulates production & thus industrial agriculture |
- | | + | * > pollution |
+ | * > adverse health effects | ||
+ | * > low food diversity | ||
+ | * > adverse health effects | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Most prevalent religions & related food regimes (Pork-free Islam & Bee-free hinduism ?) | ||
+ | | ||
+ | |||
+ | | ||
===Political=== | ===Political=== | ||
- | * Increase of far-right, nationalist and identity-focused movements > back to traditional cooking | + | * Increase of patenting & decrease of authorized crop varieties [[http:// |
- | | + | * > reduction of animal & plant species available for cooking > global impoverishment of food culture. |
+ | * > decreased resilience to change in seasonal patterns & average climatic conditions > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food | ||
+ | * > starvation for specific locations & poor people | ||
+ | * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population | ||
+ | * > geopolitical instability. | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Increase of far-right, nationalist and identity-focused movements | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | ====drivers==== | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{> | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{> | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{> | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | ====causal layered analysis==== | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{> | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{> | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{> | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | ====misc/ | ||
+ | |||
+ | * e.g. http:// | ||
+ | * e.g. https:// | ||
+ | * infographics from foodnetwork http:// | ||
+ | * historical changes in ingredients http:// | ||
+ | * "The Honeywell Kitchen Computer or H316 [...] represented the first time a computer was offered as a consumer product." | ||
+ | * " | ||
+ | * "A Work in Progress: Notes on Food, Cooking and Creativity" | ||
+ | * " | ||
+ | * network analysis " | ||
+ | * general principles | ||
+ | * An app for flavour profiling. https:// | ||
- | ===Boiling it down=== |