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future_fabulators:food_horizons [2014-04-01 16:35] – michka | future_fabulators:food_horizons [2014-04-02 11:44] – michka | ||
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http:// | http:// | ||
- | ====misc/ | ||
- | |||
- | * e.g. http:// | ||
- | * e.g. https:// | ||
- | * infographics from foodnetwork http:// | ||
- | * historical changes in ingredients http:// | ||
- | * "The Honeywell Kitchen Computer or H316 [...] represented the first time a computer was offered as a consumer product." | ||
- | * " | ||
- | * "A Work in Progress: Notes on Food, Cooking and Creativity" | ||
- | * " | ||
- | * network analysis " | ||
- | * general principles of cooking with coconut milk. http:// | ||
- | * An app for flavour profiling. https:// | ||
====Trends per Type==== | ====Trends per Type==== | ||
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">" | ">" | ||
- | [in square brackets are the references] | + | [in square brackets are the references] |
===Social=== | ===Social=== | ||
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* > unknown health effects | * > unknown health effects | ||
- | * Existing minority, stable or decreasing, of small-scale sustainable farmers > preserving bio- and techno-diversity > increasing resilience to environmental crisis negative effects. | + | * Existing minority, stable or decreasing, of small-scale sustainable farmers |
* Appearance of luxury technofood (like [[http:// | * Appearance of luxury technofood (like [[http:// | ||
Line 46: | Line 33: | ||
===Environmental=== | ===Environmental=== | ||
- | | + | |
+ | | ||
+ | * > potentially contributing to a loss in biodiversity. | ||
* Decrease of soil fertility > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability. | * Decrease of soil fertility > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability. | ||
- | * Increase of desertification > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food > starvation for specific locations & poor people, adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability. | + | |
+ | * Changes in desertification | ||
* Climate change | * Climate change | ||
- | * Increase of Extreme Climatic Events, | + | * Increase of Extreme Climatic Events, |
+ | | ||
+ | * > when combined with hyper-specialization of food crops per location (see Economic | ||
* Change in seasonal patterns and average climatic conditions > change of food crops production balance worldwide. | * Change in seasonal patterns and average climatic conditions > change of food crops production balance worldwide. | ||
- | * Decrease of Biodiversity > decrease of available food crops; reduced resilience to change in seasinal patterns & climatic conditions > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability. | + | * See detailed results from IPCC report below. |
- | * Decrease of available energetic resources > Increase on " | + | |
- | ===Economical=== | + | * Decrease of Biodiversity > decrease of edible animal & plant species > reduced resilience to change in seasonal patterns & climatic conditions > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food |
+ | * > starvation for specific locations & poor people | ||
+ | * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population | ||
+ | * > geopolitical instability. | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Decrease of available energetic resources > Increase on " | ||
+ | * > starvation for specific locations & poor people | ||
+ | * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population | ||
+ | * > geopolitical instability. | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | reference: IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 7 "Food Security and Food Production Systems" | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{ar5_fig_spm_2a.png}} | ||
+ | |||
+ | IPCC AR5 WG2 Figure SPM.2a | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==Change in Plant Crops Production== | ||
+ | |||
+ | * India: global loss in cereal production. | ||
+ | * Brazil: loss in cereal, drastic increase in beans. | ||
+ | * US: no big change in cerelas, slight increase in Soy | ||
+ | * Europe: | ||
+ | * Increase in plant crops in Boreal, Alpine, North & Central Atlantic & South Continental climates. | ||
+ | * Moderate change in Continental North. | ||
+ | * Decrease in Atlantic South & Mediterranean climates. | ||
+ | * Australia: global decrease. | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==Change in Livestock Production== | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Africa: less Livestock & Dairy | ||
+ | * Europe: | ||
+ | * France: no impact on dairy yield, but impact both positive and negative + instability on forage fields. | ||
+ | * Italy & Netherlands: | ||
+ | * Disease increase: Bluetongue virus | ||
+ | * Oceania: decrease everywhere but South Australia. | ||
+ | * South America: | ||
+ | * Andean mountains: decrease of every livestock but sheep, which increase. | ||
+ | * Argentina & Chile: more beef cattle. | ||
+ | * Columbia, Venezuela & Ecuador: less beef cattle. | ||
+ | * North America: strong decrease of Dairy yields. | ||
+ | |||
+ | ===Economic=== | ||
* Increased globalization of economy | * Increased globalization of economy | ||
- | * Prevalence of large-scale over small-scale food production > environmental impacts such as pollution & reduction of soil fertility > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability. | + | * Prevalence of large-scale over small-scale food production > environmental impacts such as pollution & reduction of soil fertility > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted |
- | * Hyper-specialisation of food crops grown on a given territory > reduced resilience to extreme climatic events (see Environmental trends) > potentially massive scarcity of a essential food crops > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability. | + | |
+ | * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; | ||
+ | * > geopolitical instability. | ||
+ | * Hyper-[[http:// | ||
+ | | ||
+ | * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; | ||
+ | * > geopolitical instability. | ||
* Increased financiarisation of economy | * Increased financiarisation of economy | ||
- | * Adverse effects of speculation on food prices > combined with increasing inequities in personal wealth, reduction of food availability and diversity for most of the world population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted | + | * Adverse effects of speculation on food prices > combined with increasing inequities in personal wealth, reduction of food availability and diversity for most of the world population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food |
- | * Increasing inequities in personal wealth > reduction of food availability and diversity for most of the world population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted | + | |
+ | * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; | ||
+ | * > geopolitical instability. | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Increasing inequities in personal wealth > reduction of food availability and diversity for most of the world population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food | ||
+ | | ||
+ | * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population | ||
+ | * > geopolitical instability. | ||
- | * To a minor extent, localized alternative economies, such as integral cooperatives | + | * To a minor extent, localized alternative economies, such as [[http:// |
+ | | ||
+ | | ||
- | * Global game changer: if a major demographic | + | * Global game changer: if a major demographic |
+ | | ||
===Demographic=== | ===Demographic=== | ||
- | * Increase of global population > more food needed > combined with reduction of soil availability & fertility, reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability. | + | * Increase of global population > more food needed > combined with reduction of soil availability & fertility, reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + food heavily polluted |
* Increase of urban population | * Increase of urban population | ||
- | * Massive amount of energy | + | * Massive amount of energy |
- | * > increase energetic resource depletion rate (also needed for industrial food production) > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted | + | * > increase energetic resource depletion rate (also needed for industrial food production) > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food |
- | * > increase of atmospheric, | + | |
- | * Increased urban pressure on neighboring fertile soils > Reducing availability of fertile soils > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted | + | * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population |
+ | * > geopolitical instability. | ||
+ | * > increase of atmospheric, | ||
+ | | ||
+ | * Increased urban pressure on neighboring fertile soils > Reducing availability of fertile soils > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food | ||
+ | | ||
+ | * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population | ||
+ | * > geopolitical instability. | ||
===Cultural=== | ===Cultural=== | ||
- | * Most prevalent religions & related food regimes (Pork-free Islam & Bee-free hinduism ?) > changing the demand thus the production balance of food crops at world scale ? | + | * Prevalent cultural preference to industrially-produced food (Nestlé, McDonalds, Pizza Hut, Exki...) |
- | * Prevalent cultural preference to industrially-produced food (Nestlé, McDonalds, Pizza Hut, Exki...) | + | * > existing demand stimulates production & thus industrial agriculture |
- | * Minority, stable or increasing, adhering to the GASAPs, Slow Food & Organic Food movements > combined with participation to alternative economic systems (see Economical trends), | + | * > pollution |
+ | * > adverse health effects | ||
+ | * > low food diversity | ||
+ | * > adverse health effects | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Most prevalent religions & related food regimes (Pork-free Islam & Bee-free hinduism ?) | ||
+ | | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Minority, stable or increasing, adhering to the GASAPs, Slow Food & Organic Food movements > combined with participation to alternative economic systems (see Economical trends), localized positive impacts on available food diversity & global health. | ||
===Political=== | ===Political=== | ||
+ | |||
* Increase of patenting & decrease of authorized crop varieties [[http:// | * Increase of patenting & decrease of authorized crop varieties [[http:// | ||
* > reduction of animal & plant species available for cooking > global impoverishment of food culture. | * > reduction of animal & plant species available for cooking > global impoverishment of food culture. | ||
- | * > decreased resilience to change in seasonal patterns & average climatic conditions > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted | + | * > decreased resilience to change in seasonal patterns & average climatic conditions > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food |
+ | | ||
+ | * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population | ||
+ | * > geopolitical instability. | ||
* Increase of far-right, nationalist and identity-focused movements [[http:// | * Increase of far-right, nationalist and identity-focused movements [[http:// | ||
- | ===Boiling it down=== | + | |
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | ====misc/sort==== | ||
+ | |||
+ | * e.g. http:// | ||
+ | * e.g. https:// | ||
+ | * infographics from foodnetwork http:// | ||
+ | * historical changes in ingredients http:// | ||
+ | * "The Honeywell Kitchen Computer or H316 [...] represented the first time a computer was offered as a consumer product." | ||
+ | * " | ||
+ | * "A Work in Progress: Notes on Food, Cooking and Creativity" | ||
+ | * " | ||
+ | * network analysis " | ||
+ | * general principles of cooking with coconut milk. http:// | ||
+ | * An app for flavour profiling. https:// |