Future Fabulators
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| future_fabulators:food_horizons [2014-04-02 08:56] – nik | future_fabulators:food_horizons [2014-10-25 16:02] (current) – [misc/notes/sort] maja | ||
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| ==== Food Horizons ==== | ==== Food Horizons ==== | ||
| - | a page to collect drivers of change and [[horizon scanning]] notes related to food, health and wellness, to design scenarios | + | On this page we collect drivers of change and [[horizon scanning]] notes, related to food, health and wellness. This is a preliminary step in the design |
| - | eg. | + | See the whole design process on the [[food futures]] page. |
| - | https:// | + | |
| - | http:// | + | |
| + | ==== Current situation ==== | ||
| - | ====Trends per Type==== | + | (looking back from 50-100 years to today, focusing on problems and possibilities) |
| - | Horizon: | + | * hygiene, pasteurisation and the (anti)bacterial movement (better understanding of pathogens, pesticides, antibiotics and the rising dangers of antibiotic resistance) |
| + | * industrialisation of food production, focus on efficiency and feeding more people; | ||
| + | * increased use of sugar, fat and meat (1995 the first deep-fried mars bar in Scotland) | ||
| + | * proliferation of cold chain transport - larger volume and longer distances (allowing for delocalisation and specialisation of production), | ||
| + | * consumption patterns are changing: USA influence, food from around the world, seasonal flattening; food consumption moves from social to functional | ||
| + | * disposal: city scale, burned rather than composted | ||
| + | * wide spread of (bio-accumulative) toxins (packaging, hormones, slow-acting poisons, also in organic farming) | ||
| + | * the battle between bacteria and chemicals (and people who prefer one or the other) | ||
| + | * complex food distribution and production (present: focus on reduction of complexity and shortening of supply-chains) | ||
| + | * growing awareness of health risks | ||
| + | * present: refocusing on the local, respecialisation, | ||
| + | * vicious circle of more people - more food: focus on cheap and voluminous rather | ||
| + | * dangerous footprint of meat production (concentration of animal manure) and other industrial byproducts | ||
| + | * internet is changing distribution and consumption patterns, as well as non-industrial food production; information spreads faster and supply-chains are becoming more convoluted and personalised | ||
| + | * proliferation of foodies movements focused on healthy, tasty, virtuoso food preparation and consumption; | ||
| + | * open source food movements | ||
| + | * diet cults (and disconnection from food production and waste) | ||
| - | ">" | ||
| - | [in square brackets are the references] | ||
| - | ===Social=== | + | ====drivers==== |
| + | |||
| + | Social | ||
| + | |||
| + | * Health | ||
| + | * Diet | ||
| + | * Aging | ||
| + | * Urbanisation | ||
| + | * Food Culture | ||
| + | |||
| + | Technological | ||
| + | |||
| + | * Agricultural Technology | ||
| + | * GMO / Synthetic biology | ||
| + | * Internet of Things | ||
| + | * Customisation | ||
| + | * Antibiotic availability | ||
| + | * Food science | ||
| + | |||
| + | Economic | ||
| + | |||
| + | * Energy | ||
| + | * Financing | ||
| + | * Equality | ||
| + | * Dominant crops | ||
| + | * Scale | ||
| + | * Patenting | ||
| + | |||
| + | Environment | ||
| + | |||
| + | * Pollution | ||
| + | * Unpredictability | ||
| + | * Degradation | ||
| + | * Availability of raw materials (water, seeds, soil...) | ||
| + | |||
| + | Political | ||
| + | |||
| + | * Conservatism | ||
| + | * Nationalism | ||
| + | * Unconditional Basic Income | ||
| + | * Food Security | ||
| + | * Transnational Agreements | ||
| + | * Laws and Regulations | ||
| + | |||
| + | Thematically clustered drivers: | ||
| + | |||
| + | {{> | ||
| + | |||
| + | {{> | ||
| + | |||
| + | {{> | ||
| + | |||
| + | |||
| + | |||
| + | ====causal layered analysis==== | ||
| + | |||
| + | Analysis of thematically clustered drivers looking at their social causes, underlying worldviews and cultural myths: | ||
| + | |||
| + | {{> | ||
| + | |||
| + | {{> | ||
| + | |||
| + | {{> | ||
| + | |||
| + | |||
| + | |||
| + | ====Drivers in detail ==== | ||
| + | |||
| + | Horizon: less than 50 years. | ||
| ===Technological=== | ===Technological=== | ||
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| * > unknown health effects | * > unknown health effects | ||
| - | * Existing minority, stable or decreasing, of small-scale sustainable farmers > preserving bio- and techno-diversity > increasing resilience to environmental crisis negative effects. | + | * Existing minority, stable or decreasing, of small-scale sustainable farmers |
| * Appearance of luxury technofood (like [[http:// | * Appearance of luxury technofood (like [[http:// | ||
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| ===Environmental=== | ===Environmental=== | ||
| - | | + | |
| * > increasing systemic diseases such as cancer & neurodegenerative medicines | * > increasing systemic diseases such as cancer & neurodegenerative medicines | ||
| * > potentially contributing to a loss in biodiversity. | * > potentially contributing to a loss in biodiversity. | ||
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| * Decrease of soil fertility > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability. | * Decrease of soil fertility > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability. | ||
| - | | + | |
| * Climate change | * Climate change | ||
| - | * Increase of Extreme Climatic Events, | + | * Increase of Extreme Climatic Events, |
| - | * > localized | + | * > localized food scarcity; |
| - | * > when combined with hyper-specialization of food crops per location (see Economical | + | * > when combined with hyper-specialization of food crops per location (see Economic |
| * Change in seasonal patterns and average climatic conditions > change of food crops production balance worldwide. | * Change in seasonal patterns and average climatic conditions > change of food crops production balance worldwide. | ||
| + | * See detailed results from IPCC report below. | ||
| * Decrease of Biodiversity > decrease of edible animal & plant species > reduced resilience to change in seasonal patterns & climatic conditions > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food | * Decrease of Biodiversity > decrease of edible animal & plant species > reduced resilience to change in seasonal patterns & climatic conditions > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food | ||
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| * > geopolitical instability. | * > geopolitical instability. | ||
| - | ===Economical=== | + | |
| + | reference: IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 7 "Food Security and Food Production Systems" | ||
| + | |||
| + | {{ar5_fig_spm_2a.png}} | ||
| + | |||
| + | IPCC AR5 WG2 Figure SPM.2a | ||
| + | |||
| + | ==Change in Plant Crops Production== | ||
| + | |||
| + | * India: global loss in cereal production. | ||
| + | * Brazil: loss in cereal, drastic increase in beans. | ||
| + | * US: no big change in cerelas, slight increase in Soy | ||
| + | * Europe: | ||
| + | * Increase in plant crops in Boreal, Alpine, North & Central Atlantic & South Continental climates. | ||
| + | * Moderate change in Continental North. | ||
| + | * Decrease in Atlantic South & Mediterranean climates. | ||
| + | * Australia: global decrease. | ||
| + | |||
| + | ==Change in Livestock Production== | ||
| + | |||
| + | * Africa: less Livestock & Dairy | ||
| + | * Europe: | ||
| + | * France: no impact on dairy yield, but impact both positive and negative + instability on forage fields. | ||
| + | * Italy & Netherlands: | ||
| + | * Disease increase: Bluetongue virus | ||
| + | * Oceania: decrease everywhere but South Australia. | ||
| + | * South America: | ||
| + | * Andean mountains: decrease of every livestock but sheep, which increase. | ||
| + | * Argentina & Chile: more beef cattle. | ||
| + | * Columbia, Venezuela & Ecuador: less beef cattle. | ||
| + | * North America: strong decrease of Dairy yields. | ||
| + | |||
| + | {{ : | ||
| + | |||
| + | ===Economic=== | ||
| * Increased globalization of economy | * Increased globalization of economy | ||
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| * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; | * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; | ||
| * > geopolitical instability. | * > geopolitical instability. | ||
| - | * Hyper-specialisation of food crops grown on a given territory > reduced resilience to extreme climatic events (see Environmental trends) > potentially massive scarcity of a essential food crops > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted | + | * Hyper-[[http:// |
| * > starvation for specific locations & poor people; | * > starvation for specific locations & poor people; | ||
| * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; | * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; | ||
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| * Increased financiarisation of economy | * Increased financiarisation of economy | ||
| - | * Adverse effects of speculation on food prices > combined with increasing inequities in personal wealth, reduction of food availability and diversity for most of the world population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food | + | |
| * > starvation for specific locations & poor people; | * > starvation for specific locations & poor people; | ||
| * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; | * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; | ||
| * > geopolitical instability. | * > geopolitical instability. | ||
| - | * Increasing inequities in personal wealth > reduction of food availability and diversity for most of the world population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food | + | |
| * > starvation for specific locations & poor people | * > starvation for specific locations & poor people | ||
| * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population | * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population | ||
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| * > [[http:// | * > [[http:// | ||
| - | ===Demographic=== | ||
| - | * Increase of global population > more food needed > combined with reduction of soil availability & fertility, reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability. | + | ===Social & Cultural === |
| + | |||
| + | * Increase of global population > more food needed > combined with reduction of soil availability & fertility, reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + food heavily polluted | ||
| * Increase of urban population | * Increase of urban population | ||
| - | * Massive amount of energy | + | * Massive amount of energy |
| * > increase energetic resource depletion rate (also needed for industrial food production) > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food | * > increase energetic resource depletion rate (also needed for industrial food production) > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food | ||
| * > starvation for specific locations & poor people | * > starvation for specific locations & poor people | ||
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| * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population | * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population | ||
| * > geopolitical instability. | * > geopolitical instability. | ||
| - | |||
| - | ===Cultural=== | ||
| * Prevalent cultural preference to industrially-produced food (Nestlé, McDonalds, Pizza Hut, Exki...) | * Prevalent cultural preference to industrially-produced food (Nestlé, McDonalds, Pizza Hut, Exki...) | ||
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| - | {{ar5_fig_spm_2a.png}} | ||
| - | IPCC AR5 WG2 Figure SPM.2a | + | ====misc/ |
| - | ====misc/sort==== | + | " |
| + | * Several food experts on food futures: http:// | ||
| * e.g. http:// | * e.g. http:// | ||
| * e.g. https:// | * e.g. https:// | ||
| + | * https:// | ||
| + | * http:// | ||
| * infographics from foodnetwork http:// | * infographics from foodnetwork http:// | ||
| * historical changes in ingredients http:// | * historical changes in ingredients http:// | ||