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future_fabulators:food_horizons [2014-04-02 11:41] – michkafuture_fabulators:food_horizons [2014-10-25 16:02] (current) – [misc/notes/sort] maja
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 ==== Food Horizons ==== ==== Food Horizons ====
  
-a page to collect drivers of change and [[horizon scanning]] notes related to food, health and wellness, to design scenarios and a menu for http://fo.am/late-lab-open-sauces/ +On this page we collect drivers of change and [[horizon scanning]] notes, related to food, health and wellness. This is a preliminary step in the design of [[food scenarios]], that we then translated into a [[latelab_menu|tasting menu]] for [[http://fo.am/late-lab-open-sauces/|Latelab Open Sauces]] at the Edinburgh Science Festival. 
  
-eg. +See the whole design process on the [[food futures]] page.
-https://delicious.com/zzkt/food \\ +
-http://agalmic.org/tagged/food+
  
 +==== Current situation ====
  
-====Trends per Type====+(looking back from 50-100 years to today, focusing on problems and possibilities)
  
-Horizon: less than 50 years.+  * hygiene, pasteurisation and the (anti)bacterial movement (better understanding of pathogens, pesticides, antibiotics and the rising dangers of antibiotic resistance) 
 +  * industrialisation of food production, focus on efficiency and feeding more people; less focus on taste, more on nutrition 
 +  * increased use of sugar, fat and meat (1995 the first deep-fried mars bar in Scotland) 
 +  * proliferation of cold chain transport - larger volume and longer distances (allowing for delocalisation and specialisation of production), availability of a wide range of products 
 +  * consumption patterns are changing: USA influence, food from around the world, seasonal flattening; food consumption moves from social to functional 
 +  * disposal: city scale, burned rather than composted 
 +  * wide spread of (bio-accumulative) toxins (packaging, hormones, slow-acting poisons, also in organic farming) 
 +  * the battle between bacteria and chemicals (and people who prefer one or the other) 
 +  * complex food distribution and production (present: focus on reduction of complexity and shortening of supply-chains) 
 +  * growing awareness of health risks 
 +  * present: refocusing on the local, respecialisation, relocalisation, bringing back forgotten varieties and species, focus on (hyper)seasonal products 
 +  * vicious circle of more people - more food: focus on cheap and voluminous rather than nutritious; lowering of household's food budgets - health risks due to consumption of junk food 
 +  * dangerous footprint of meat production (concentration of animal manure) and other industrial byproducts 
 +  * internet is changing distribution and consumption patterns, as well as non-industrial food production; information spreads faster and supply-chains are becoming more convoluted and personalised 
 +  * proliferation of foodies movements focused on healthy, tasty, virtuoso food preparation and consumption;  
 +  * open source food movements 
 +  * diet cults (and disconnection from food production and waste)
  
-">" means "inducing" 
  
-[in square brackets are the references] **NO`tE:** you can also add footnotes like so((well researched and referenced)) 
  
-===Social===+====drivers==== 
 + 
 +Social 
 + 
 +  * Health 
 +  * Diet 
 +  * Aging 
 +  * Urbanisation 
 +  * Food Culture 
 + 
 +Technological 
 + 
 +  * Agricultural Technology 
 +  * GMO / Synthetic biology 
 +  * Internet of Things 
 +  * Customisation 
 +  * Antibiotic availability 
 +  * Food science 
 + 
 +Economic 
 + 
 +  * Energy 
 +  * Financing 
 +  * Equality 
 +  * Dominant crops 
 +  * Scale 
 +  * Patenting 
 + 
 +Environment 
 + 
 +  * Pollution 
 +  * Unpredictability 
 +  * Degradation 
 +  * Availability of raw materials (water, seeds, soil...) 
 + 
 +Political 
 + 
 +  * Conservatism 
 +  * Nationalism 
 +  * Unconditional Basic Income 
 +  * Food Security 
 +  * Transnational Agreements 
 +  * Laws and Regulations 
 + 
 +Thematically clustered drivers: 
 + 
 +{{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/13585393644/}} \\ 
 + 
 +{{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/13585072463/}} \\ 
 + 
 +{{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/13585034475/}} \\ 
 + 
 + 
 + 
 +====causal layered analysis==== 
 + 
 +Analysis of thematically clustered drivers looking at their social causes, underlying worldviews and cultural myths: 
 + 
 +{{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/13604606344/}} \\ 
 + 
 +{{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/13604224645/}} \\ 
 + 
 +{{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/13604554614/}} \\ 
 + 
 + 
 + 
 +====Drivers in detail ==== 
 + 
 +Horizon: less than 50 years. 
  
 ===Technological=== ===Technological===
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 ===Environmental=== ===Environmental===
  
-   * increasing pollution of water, soil and atmosphere +   * Increasing pollution of water, soil and atmosphere 
      * > increasing systemic diseases such as cancer & neurodegenerative medicines      * > increasing systemic diseases such as cancer & neurodegenerative medicines
      * > potentially contributing to a loss in biodiversity.      * > potentially contributing to a loss in biodiversity.
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 IPCC AR5 WG2 Figure SPM.2a IPCC AR5 WG2 Figure SPM.2a
- 
-==Change in plant & livestock production== 
  
 ==Change in Plant Crops Production== ==Change in Plant Crops Production==
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    * Oceania: decrease everywhere but South Australia.    * Oceania: decrease everywhere but South Australia.
    * South America:    * South America:
- Andean mountains: decrease of every livestock but sheep, which increase. +     * Andean mountains: decrease of every livestock but sheep, which increase. 
- Argentina & Chile: more beef cattle. +     * Argentina & Chile: more beef cattle. 
- Columbia, Venezuela & Ecuador: less beef cattle.+     * Columbia, Venezuela & Ecuador: less beef cattle.
    * North America: strong decrease of Dairy yields.    * North America: strong decrease of Dairy yields.
 +
 +{{ :future_fabulators:giec_figure_ge_ne_rale_-_copie.jpg?800 |}}
  
 ===Economic=== ===Economic===
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    * Increased financiarisation of economy    * Increased financiarisation of economy
-     * Adverse effects of speculation on food prices > combined with increasing inequities in personal wealth, reduction of food availability and diversity for most of the world population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food+     * [[http://necsi.edu/research/social/foodprices.html|Adverse effects of speculation on food prices]] > combined with increasing inequities in personal wealth, reduction of food availability and diversity for most of the world population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food
        * > starvation for specific locations & poor people;         * > starvation for specific locations & poor people; 
        * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population;         * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; 
        * > geopolitical instability.        * > geopolitical instability.
  
-   * Increasing inequities in personal wealth > reduction of food availability and diversity for most of the world population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food +   * [[http://www.inegalites.fr/spip.php?page=analyse&id_article=1911&id_groupe=20&id_rubrique=28&id_mot=15|Increasing inequities in personal wealth]] > reduction of food availability and diversity for most of the world population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food 
      * > starvation for specific locations & poor people      * > starvation for specific locations & poor people
      * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population      * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population
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      * > [[http://www.projet-decroissance.net/?p=1640|depending on how it would be defined]], it may reverse the large-scale industrial dynamics and may induced better global health & wellness results.      * > [[http://www.projet-decroissance.net/?p=1640|depending on how it would be defined]], it may reverse the large-scale industrial dynamics and may induced better global health & wellness results.
  
-===Demographic===+ 
 +===Social & Cultural ===
  
    * Increase of global population > more food needed > combined with reduction of soil availability & fertility, reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + food heavily polluted or low in nutrients > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability.    * Increase of global population > more food needed > combined with reduction of soil availability & fertility, reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + food heavily polluted or low in nutrients > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability.
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        * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population        * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population
        * > geopolitical instability.        * > geopolitical instability.
- 
-===Cultural=== 
  
    * Prevalent cultural preference to industrially-produced food (Nestlé, McDonalds, Pizza Hut, Exki...)     * Prevalent cultural preference to industrially-produced food (Nestlé, McDonalds, Pizza Hut, Exki...) 
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 +====misc/notes/sort====
  
-====misc/sort====+"People tend to find the taste of Soylent to be familiar: the predominant sensation is one of doughiness. The liquid is smooth but grainy in your mouth, and it has a yeasty, comforting blandness about it." [[http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2014/05/12/140512fa_fact_widdicombe?currentPage=all&mobify=0|Could Soylent Replace Food?]]
  
 +  * Several food experts on food futures: http://time.com/3482452/future-of-food/
   * e.g. http://www.cookingforengineers.com/recipe/34/Garlic-Roasted-Potatoes/trn   * e.g. http://www.cookingforengineers.com/recipe/34/Garlic-Roasted-Potatoes/trn
   * e.g. https://www.quora.com/Cooking/What-are-some-technique-to-chopping-vegetables   * e.g. https://www.quora.com/Cooking/What-are-some-technique-to-chopping-vegetables
 +  * https://delicious.com/zzkt/food 
 +  * http://agalmic.org/tagged/food
   * infographics from foodnetwork http://www.wired.com/design/2013/10/26-amazing-food-infographics/   * infographics from foodnetwork http://www.wired.com/design/2013/10/26-amazing-food-infographics/
   * historical changes in ingredients http://cryptoforest.blogspot.be/2013/11/charting-geographical-origins-of.html   * historical changes in ingredients http://cryptoforest.blogspot.be/2013/11/charting-geographical-origins-of.html

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