future_fabulators:food_horizons [the libarynth]

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Food Horizons

a page to collect drivers of change and horizon scanning notes related to food, health and wellness, to design scenarios and a menu for http://fo.am/late-lab-open-sauces/

eg. https://delicious.com/zzkt/food
http://agalmic.org/tagged/food

Trends per Type

Horizon: less than 50 years.

“>” means “inducing”

[in square brackets are the references] NO`tE: you can also add footnotes like so¹⁾

Technological

Development of “resource-efficient” large-scale agriculture techniques (agro-ecological systems using bio-sourced fertilizers, methanisation…) (in french), article on Reporterre on French government's strategy towards "industrial agro-ecology"
- > adverse environmental impacts such as pollution & reduction in biodiversity (in French), article on Reporterre on adverse environmental effects of large-scale methanisation

Development of GMO technology > combined with increased globalization of economy (see Economical trends), increase of GMO-food & GMO-seeds market share (in French), article on how the US-EU free-trade zone will bring GMO food to Europe
- > unknown health effects

Existing minority, stable or decreasing, of small-scale sustainable farmers (promoted by Right-to-Food special rapporteur Olivier de Schutter) > preserving bio- and techno-diversity > increasing resilience to environmental crisis negative effects and mitigating the risk of such effects.

Appearance of luxury technofood (like the lab-grown hamburger)
- > only for very rich people, with unknown impact on health.

Environmental

increasing pollution of water, soil and atmosphere
- > increasing systemic diseases such as cancer & neurodegenerative medicines
- > potentially contributing to a loss in biodiversity.

Decrease of soil fertility > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability.

Changes in desertification and rainfall patterns > decrease of available arable soil surface > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food > starvation for specific locations & poor people, adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability.

Climate change
- Increase of Extreme Climatic Events, e.g. Floods & Droughts
  - > localized food scarcity;
  - > when combined with hyper-specialization of food crops per location (see Economic trends), world-wide scarcity of specific ingredients.
- Change in seasonal patterns and average climatic conditions > change of food crops production balance worldwide.
  - See detailed results from IPCC report below.

Decrease of Biodiversity > decrease of edible animal & plant species > reduced resilience to change in seasonal patterns & climatic conditions > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food
- > starvation for specific locations & poor people
- > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population
- > geopolitical instability.

Decrease of available energetic resources > Increase on “traveling food” prices > when combined with increased inequities in personal wealth (see Economical Ttrends), reduce of food ingredients availability for most of the population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food
- > starvation for specific locations & poor people
- > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population
- > geopolitical instability.

reference: IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 7 “Food Security and Food Production Systems” http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/images/uploads/WGIIAR5-Chap7_FGDall.pdf

IPCC AR5 WG2 Figure SPM.2a

Change in plant & livestock production

=Plant Crops=

India: global loss in cereal production.
Brazil: loss in cereal, drastic increase in beans.
US: no big change in cerelas, slight increase in Soy
Europe:
- Increase in plant crops in Boreal, Alpine, North & Central Atlantic & South Continental climates.
- Moderate change in Continental North.
- Decrease in Atlantic South & Mediterranean climates.
Australia: global decrease.

=Livestock=

Africa: less Livestock & Dairy
Europe:
- France: no impact on dairy yield, but impact both positive and negative + instability on forage fields.
- Italy & Netherlands: bad for mozzarella & gouda
- Disease increase: Bluetongue virus
Oceania: decrease everywhere but South Australia.
South America:

Andean mountains: decrease of every livestock but sheep, which increase.

Argentina & Chile: more beef cattle.
Columbia, Venezuela & Ecuador: less beef cattle.
 * North America: strong decrease of Dairy yields.

Economic

Increased globalization of economy
- Prevalence of large-scale over small-scale food production > environmental impacts such as pollution & reduction of soil fertility > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted
  - > starvation for specific locations & poor people;
  - > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population;
  - > geopolitical instability.
- Hyper-specialisation of food crops grown on a given territory > reduced resilience to extreme climatic events (see Environmental trends) > potentially massive scarcity of a essential food crops > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted
  - > starvation for specific locations & poor people;
  - > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population;
  - > geopolitical instability.

Increased financiarisation of economy
- Adverse effects of speculation on food prices > combined with increasing inequities in personal wealth, reduction of food availability and diversity for most of the world population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food
  - > starvation for specific locations & poor people;
  - > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population;
  - > geopolitical instability.

Increasing inequities in personal wealth > reduction of food availability and diversity for most of the world population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food
- > starvation for specific locations & poor people
- > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population
- > geopolitical instability.

To a minor extent, localized alternative economies, such as (in French) integral cooperatives, local currencies, barter networks & gift economy initiatives
> reduces inequities within economic players at local scale
- > better global health at local population scale.

Global game changer: if a major demographic group, global economic player & industrial producer installs basic income. It is about to be voted by the population in Switzerland and has been proposed as a popular initiative in Europe
> depending on how it would be defined, it may reverse the large-scale industrial dynamics and may induced better global health & wellness results.

Demographic

Increase of global population > more food needed > combined with reduction of soil availability & fertility, reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + food heavily polluted or low in nutrients > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability.

Increase of urban population
- Massive amount of energy used to bring food to urban citizens
  - > increase energetic resource depletion rate (also needed for industrial food production) > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food
    - > starvation for specific locations & poor people
    - > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population
    - > geopolitical instability.
  - > increase of atmospheric, water and soil pollution due to massive transport
    - > adverse health effects.
- Increased urban pressure on neighboring fertile soils > Reducing availability of fertile soils > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food
  - > starvation for specific locations & poor people
  - > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population
  - > geopolitical instability.

Cultural

Prevalent cultural preference to industrially-produced food (Nestlé, McDonalds, Pizza Hut, Exki…)
- > existing demand stimulates production & thus industrial agriculture
  - > pollution
    - > adverse health effects
- > low food diversity
  - > adverse health effects

Most prevalent religions & related food regimes (Pork-free Islam & Bee-free hinduism ?)
- > changing the demand thus the production balance of food crops at world scale ?

Minority, stable or increasing, adhering to the GASAPs, Slow Food & Organic Food movements > combined with participation to alternative economic systems (see Economical trends), localized positive impacts on available food diversity & global health.

Political

Increase of patenting & decrease of authorized crop varieties (in French), an article from Mediapart on seeds patenting
- > reduction of animal & plant species available for cooking > global impoverishment of food culture.
- > decreased resilience to change in seasonal patterns & average climatic conditions > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food
  - > starvation for specific locations & poor people
  - > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population
  - > geopolitical instability.

Increase of far-right, nationalist and identity-focused movements (in French), an article from les Inrocks analysing the situation of far-right parties in Europe > (violent) incentive back to traditional culture, and therefore cooking > reduction of food ingredients diversity at local scale ?

misc/sort

e.g. http://www.cookingforengineers.com/recipe/34/Garlic-Roasted-Potatoes/trn
e.g. https://www.quora.com/Cooking/What-are-some-technique-to-chopping-vegetables
infographics from foodnetwork http://www.wired.com/design/2013/10/26-amazing-food-infographics/
historical changes in ingredients http://cryptoforest.blogspot.be/2013/11/charting-geographical-origins-of.html
“The Honeywell Kitchen Computer or H316 […] represented the first time a computer was offered as a consumer product.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honeywell_316#Kitchen_Computer
“Bullipedia is a professional tool based on the codification of a creative discipline.” from elBulli Foundation. http://hackingbullipedia.org/bullipedia3-2
“A Work in Progress: Notes on Food, Cooking and Creativity” by René Redzepi. http://nyjournalofbooks.com/review/work-progress-notes-food-cooking-and-creativity
“TASTED is a project that investigates the way we taste food and its flavor.” http://www.simona-derosa.com/works/#/tasted/
network analysis “Flavor network and the principles of food pairing”. http://www.nature.com/srep/2011/111215/srep00196/full/srep00196.html
general principles of cooking with coconut milk. http://ask.metafilter.com/257507/What-are-the-general-principles-for-cooking-with-coconut-milk
An app for flavour profiling. https://www.gastrograph.com/

¹⁾

well researched and referenced