a page to collect drivers of change and horizon scanning notes related to food, health and wellness, to design scenarios and a menu for http://fo.am/late-lab-open-sauces/ as developed in food futures

(looking back from 50-100 years to today, focusing on problems and possibilities)

• hygiene, pasteurisation and the (anti)bacterial movement (better understanding of pathogens, pesticides, antibiotics and the rising dangers of antibiotic resistance)
• industrialisation of food production, focus on efficiency and feeding more people; less focus on taste, more on nutrition
• increased use of sugar, fat and meat (1995 the first deep-fried mars bar in Scotland)
• proliferation of cold chain transport - larger volume and longer distances (allowing for delocalisation and specialisation of production), availability of a wide range of products
• consumption patterns are changing: USA influence, food from around the world, seasonal flattening; food consumption moves from social to functional
• disposal: city scale, burned rather than composted
• wide spread of (bio-accumulative) toxins (packaging, hormones, slow-acting poisons, also in organic farming)
• the battle between bacteria and chemicals (and people who prefer one or the other)
• complex food distribution and production (present: focus on reduction of complexity and shortening of supply-chains)
• growing awareness of health risks
• present: refocusing on the local, respecialisation, relocalisation, bringing back forgotten varieties and species, focus on (hyper)seasonal products
• vicious circle of more people - more food: focus on cheap and voluminous rather than nutritious; lowering of household's food budgets - health risks due to consumption of junk food
• dangerous footprint of meat production (concentration of animal manure) and other industrial byproducts
• internet is changing distribution and consumption patterns, as well as non-industrial food production; information spreads faster and supply-chains are becoming more convoluted and personalised
• proliferation of foodies movements focused on healthy, tasty, virtuoso food preparation and consumption;
• open source food movements
• diet cults (and disconnection from food production and waste)

Social

• Health
• Diet
• Aging
• Urbanisation
• Food Culture

Technological

• Agricultural Technology
• GMO / Synthetic biology
• Internet of Things
• Customisation
• Antibiotic availability
• Food science

Economic

• Energy
• Financing
• Equality
• Dominant crops
• Scale
• Patenting

Environment

• Pollution
• Unpredictability
• Degradation
• Availability of raw materials (water, seeds, soil…)

Political

• Conservatism
• Nationalism
• Unconditional Basic Income
• Food Security
• Transnational Agreements
• Laws and Regulations

Thematically clustered drivers:

Analysis of thematically clustered drivers looking at their social causes, underlying worldviews and cultural myths:

Horizon: less than 50 years.

• Development of “resource-efficient” large-scale agriculture techniques (agro-ecological systems using bio-sourced fertilizers, methanisation…) (in french), article on Reporterre on French government's strategy towards "industrial agro-ecology"
  • > adverse environmental impacts such as pollution & reduction in biodiversity (in French), article on Reporterre on adverse environmental effects of large-scale methanisation

• Development of GMO technology > combined with increased globalization of economy (see Economical trends), increase of GMO-food & GMO-seeds market share (in French), article on how the US-EU free-trade zone will bring GMO food to Europe
  • > unknown health effects

• Existing minority, stable or decreasing, of small-scale sustainable farmers (promoted by Right-to-Food special rapporteur Olivier de Schutter) > preserving bio- and techno-diversity > increasing resilience to environmental crisis negative effects and mitigating the risk of such effects.

• Appearance of luxury technofood (like the lab-grown hamburger)
  • > only for very rich people, with unknown impact on health.

• Increasing pollution of water, soil and atmosphere
  • > increasing systemic diseases such as cancer & neurodegenerative medicines
  • > potentially contributing to a loss in biodiversity.

• Decrease of soil fertility > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability.

• Changes in desertification and rainfall patterns > decrease of available arable soil surface > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food > starvation for specific locations & poor people, adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability.

• Climate change
  • Increase of Extreme Climatic Events, e.g. Floods & Droughts
    • > localized food scarcity;
    • > when combined with hyper-specialization of food crops per location (see Economic trends), world-wide scarcity of specific ingredients.
  • Change in seasonal patterns and average climatic conditions > change of food crops production balance worldwide.
    • See detailed results from IPCC report below.

• Decrease of Biodiversity > decrease of edible animal & plant species > reduced resilience to change in seasonal patterns & climatic conditions > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food
  • > starvation for specific locations & poor people
  • > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population
  • > geopolitical instability.

• Decrease of available energetic resources > Increase on “traveling food” prices > when combined with increased inequities in personal wealth (see Economical Ttrends), reduce of food ingredients availability for most of the population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food
  • > starvation for specific locations & poor people
  • > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population
  • > geopolitical instability.

reference: IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 7 “Food Security and Food Production Systems” http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/images/uploads/WGIIAR5-Chap7_FGDall.pdf

IPCC AR5 WG2 Figure SPM.2a

• India: global loss in cereal production.
• Brazil: loss in cereal, drastic increase in beans.
• US: no big change in cerelas, slight increase in Soy
• Europe:
  • Increase in plant crops in Boreal, Alpine, North & Central Atlantic & South Continental climates.
  • Moderate change in Continental North.
  • Decrease in Atlantic South & Mediterranean climates.
• Australia: global decrease.

• Africa: less Livestock & Dairy
• Europe:
  • France: no impact on dairy yield, but impact both positive and negative + instability on forage fields.
  • Italy & Netherlands: bad for mozzarella & gouda
  • Disease increase: Bluetongue virus
• Oceania: decrease everywhere but South Australia.
• South America:
  • Andean mountains: decrease of every livestock but sheep, which increase.
  • Argentina & Chile: more beef cattle.
  • Columbia, Venezuela & Ecuador: less beef cattle.
• North America: strong decrease of Dairy yields.

• Increased globalization of economy
  • Prevalence of large-scale over small-scale food production > environmental impacts such as pollution & reduction of soil fertility > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted
    • > starvation for specific locations & poor people;
    • > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population;
    • > geopolitical instability.
  • Hyper-specialisation of food crops grown on a given territory > reduced resilience to extreme climatic events (see Environmental trends) > potentially massive scarcity of a essential food crops > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted
    • > starvation for specific locations & poor people;
    • > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population;
    • > geopolitical instability.

• Increased financiarisation of economy
  • Adverse effects of speculation on food prices > combined with increasing inequities in personal wealth, reduction of food availability and diversity for most of the world population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food
    • > starvation for specific locations & poor people;
    • > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population;
    • > geopolitical instability.

• Increasing inequities in personal wealth > reduction of food availability and diversity for most of the world population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food
  • > starvation for specific locations & poor people
  • > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population
  • > geopolitical instability.

• To a minor extent, localized alternative economies, such as (in French) integral cooperatives, local currencies, barter networks & gift economy initiatives
• > reduces inequities within economic players at local scale
  • > better global health at local population scale.

• Global game changer: if a major demographic group, global economic player & industrial producer installs basic income. It is about to be voted by the population in Switzerland and has been proposed as a popular initiative in Europe
• > depending on how it would be defined, it may reverse the large-scale industrial dynamics and may induced better global health & wellness results.

• Increase of global population > more food needed > combined with reduction of soil availability & fertility, reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + food heavily polluted or low in nutrients > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability.

• Increase of urban population
  • Massive amount of energy used to bring food to urban citizens
    • > increase energetic resource depletion rate (also needed for industrial food production) > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food
      • > starvation for specific locations & poor people
      • > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population
      • > geopolitical instability.
    • > increase of atmospheric, water and soil pollution due to massive transport
      • > adverse health effects.
  • Increased urban pressure on neighboring fertile soils > Reducing availability of fertile soils > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food
    • > starvation for specific locations & poor people
    • > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population
    • > geopolitical instability.

• Prevalent cultural preference to industrially-produced food (Nestlé, McDonalds, Pizza Hut, Exki…)
  • > existing demand stimulates production & thus industrial agriculture
    • > pollution
      • > adverse health effects
  • > low food diversity
    • > adverse health effects

• Most prevalent religions & related food regimes (Pork-free Islam & Bee-free hinduism ?)
  • > changing the demand thus the production balance of food crops at world scale ?

• Minority, stable or increasing, adhering to the GASAPs, Slow Food & Organic Food movements > combined with participation to alternative economic systems (see Economical trends), localized positive impacts on available food diversity & global health.

• Increase of patenting & decrease of authorized crop varieties (in French), an article from Mediapart on seeds patenting
  • > reduction of animal & plant species available for cooking > global impoverishment of food culture.
  • > decreased resilience to change in seasonal patterns & average climatic conditions > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food
    • > starvation for specific locations & poor people
    • > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population
    • > geopolitical instability.

• Increase of far-right, nationalist and identity-focused movements (in French), an article from les Inrocks analysing the situation of far-right parties in Europe > (violent) incentive back to traditional culture, and therefore cooking > reduction of food ingredients diversity at local scale ?

• e.g. http://www.cookingforengineers.com/recipe/34/Garlic-Roasted-Potatoes/trn
• e.g. https://www.quora.com/Cooking/What-are-some-technique-to-chopping-vegetables
• https://delicious.com/zzkt/food
• http://agalmic.org/tagged/food
• infographics from foodnetwork http://www.wired.com/design/2013/10/26-amazing-food-infographics/
• historical changes in ingredients http://cryptoforest.blogspot.be/2013/11/charting-geographical-origins-of.html
• “The Honeywell Kitchen Computer or H316 […] represented the first time a computer was offered as a consumer product.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honeywell_316#Kitchen_Computer
• “Bul­li­pedia is a pro­fes­sional tool based on the cod­i­fi­ca­tion of a cre­ative discipline.” from elBulli Foundation. http://hackingbullipedia.org/bullipedia3-2
• “A Work in Progress: Notes on Food, Cooking and Creativity” by René Redzepi. http://nyjournalofbooks.com/review/work-progress-notes-food-cooking-and-creativity
• “TASTED is a project that investigates the way we taste food and its flavor.” http://www.simona-derosa.com/works/#/tasted/
• network analysis “Flavor network and the principles of food pairing”. http://www.nature.com/srep/2011/111215/srep00196/full/srep00196.html
• general principles of cooking with coconut milk. http://ask.metafilter.com/257507/What-are-the-general-principles-for-cooking-with-coconut-milk
• An app for flavour profiling. https://www.gastrograph.com/