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future_fabulators:integral_scenario_development [2014-03-03 06:47] – created majafuture_fabulators:integral_scenario_development [2014-03-04 07:23] (current) – maja
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 ==== Integral Scenario Development ==== ==== Integral Scenario Development ====
  
- +How to develop scenarios inspired by [[integral futures]] methods and principles? C.C. Stewart offers some interesting ideas in [[http://www.integralworld.net/pdf/stewart2.pdf|INTEGRAL SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT: Introducing an AQAL Root Questions Method]]
-Notes from [[http://www.integralworld.net/pdf/stewart2.pdf|INTEGRAL SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT: Introducing an AQAL Root Questions Method]] by Chris C. Stewart+
  
 <blockquote> <blockquote>
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 Lining up as many types of holons and their associated holarchies as he could find in different disciplines, Wilber employs his second core concept: quadrants. Lining up as many types of holons and their associated holarchies as he could find in different disciplines, Wilber employs his second core concept: quadrants.
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 +<html><a href="http://thinkingfutures.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/4Q.jpg.gif"><img src="http://thinkingfutures.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/4Q.jpg.gif" width="600"></a></html>
  
 The core value of the quadrants is they allowed Wilber to align the different types of truth statements, or orientating generalisations, that the many different disciplines had disclosed: generating a four dimensional holarchy of human reality. The core value of the quadrants is they allowed Wilber to align the different types of truth statements, or orientating generalisations, that the many different disciplines had disclosed: generating a four dimensional holarchy of human reality.
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 In each quadrant different lines, or different holarchies are unfolding. In each quadrant different lines, or different holarchies are unfolding.
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 +<html><a href"http://integralleadershipreview.com/wp-content/uploads/Untitled4.png"><img src="http://integralleadershipreview.com/wp-content/uploads/Untitled4.png"></a></html>
  
 Taken together these elements provide the foundations of the IS approach known as AQAL meta- theory. Holons, their holarchies, the quadrants they exist in, their levels and differentiating lines form the main elements we will consider within this essay, and refer to as AQAL. Taken together these elements provide the foundations of the IS approach known as AQAL meta- theory. Holons, their holarchies, the quadrants they exist in, their levels and differentiating lines form the main elements we will consider within this essay, and refer to as AQAL.
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 It is common that each subject-holon of focus for the scenario process will be phrased as a question containing an actor ('who') and factor ('what'). To this question, set within a time horizon ('when'), the quadratic questions are addressed, identifying related actors and factors. It is common that each subject-holon of focus for the scenario process will be phrased as a question containing an actor ('who') and factor ('what'). To this question, set within a time horizon ('when'), the quadratic questions are addressed, identifying related actors and factors.
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 +{{:future_fabulators:screen_shot_2014-03-03_at_17.20.22.png?direct|}}
  
 Here the concepts of levels of a holarchy, and lines of holarchies within, or relevant to, the holon- subject of focus, can be employed. The developmental sequence nature implied by the definition of a holon in constructing a holarchy leads to the next root questions. Because a holon is a whole part, once a subject-holon is identified as a whole, it begs the question of what is it a part? And similarly, what wholes are a part of it? The answers to these questions facilitate organisation of the responses to the first six root questions. This can be summarised as two holarchy root questions: QQ is internal to X? QQ is X internal to? Where 'QQ' is the root quadrant question and 'X' is actor/factor or subject-holon already identified. Here the concepts of levels of a holarchy, and lines of holarchies within, or relevant to, the holon- subject of focus, can be employed. The developmental sequence nature implied by the definition of a holon in constructing a holarchy leads to the next root questions. Because a holon is a whole part, once a subject-holon is identified as a whole, it begs the question of what is it a part? And similarly, what wholes are a part of it? The answers to these questions facilitate organisation of the responses to the first six root questions. This can be summarised as two holarchy root questions: QQ is internal to X? QQ is X internal to? Where 'QQ' is the root quadrant question and 'X' is actor/factor or subject-holon already identified.
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 +{{:future_fabulators:screen_shot_2014-03-03_at_17.20.49.png?direct|}}
  
 In addition to the six root questions and two root holarchy questions, the POP can further add rigour to this approach. Using the POP as guiding policies or rules of engagement was identified above as a means of conducting an ISD. Another, complimentary approach, would be to derive questions from them as well. Nonexclusion could lead to asking 'Have we sought out as many relevant perspectives as possible?' Perspectives could be swapped with actors, or factors, and so on to suit the context in which the question is posed. Enactment leads to asking questions like 'Have we actively sought to identify (surface, objectify) the perspectives/mental models we have used in each stage of the process?' 'How might our perspectives effect what we have identified?' 'Are there others we haven't included?' 'Why not?' Unfoldment should prompt questions, such as, 'Have we identified relationships among the different variables identified?' 'Are there other evolutionary sequences and casual chains (vertical and horizontal relationships) that might link and summarise these variables?' 'How might these sequences be meta-linked?' The scenario development process appears to already include these questions, however, finding their relevance within an IS approach is important. In addition to the six root questions and two root holarchy questions, the POP can further add rigour to this approach. Using the POP as guiding policies or rules of engagement was identified above as a means of conducting an ISD. Another, complimentary approach, would be to derive questions from them as well. Nonexclusion could lead to asking 'Have we sought out as many relevant perspectives as possible?' Perspectives could be swapped with actors, or factors, and so on to suit the context in which the question is posed. Enactment leads to asking questions like 'Have we actively sought to identify (surface, objectify) the perspectives/mental models we have used in each stage of the process?' 'How might our perspectives effect what we have identified?' 'Are there others we haven't included?' 'Why not?' Unfoldment should prompt questions, such as, 'Have we identified relationships among the different variables identified?' 'Are there other evolutionary sequences and casual chains (vertical and horizontal relationships) that might link and summarise these variables?' 'How might these sequences be meta-linked?' The scenario development process appears to already include these questions, however, finding their relevance within an IS approach is important.
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 +{{:future_fabulators:screen_shot_2014-03-03_at_17.21.22.png?direct|}}
  
 Once the variables are identified using the root questions, linked via holarchy questions, and rigorously checked using the POPs as questions, an integrated and ordered picture concerning the master subject-holon should emerge. Using AQAL questions and mapping facilitates the information gathering and analysis process and covers the majority of the first two steps of the generic scenario development process Once the variables are identified using the root questions, linked via holarchy questions, and rigorously checked using the POPs as questions, an integrated and ordered picture concerning the master subject-holon should emerge. Using AQAL questions and mapping facilitates the information gathering and analysis process and covers the majority of the first two steps of the generic scenario development process
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 What remains in 'Step 2' is to rank the variables in a manner consistent with a chosen scenario creation method. What remains in 'Step 2' is to rank the variables in a manner consistent with a chosen scenario creation method.
  
-root questions and the AQAL picture of relevant variables can be used as either prompts and/or as a checklist in the creation of the scenario 'story.' This allows for the scenario descriptions or stories to have an Integral nature, in that they include the subjective and objective aspects of realty in both singular and plural forms. The value is in assisting the creation of a more realistic and holistic picture of the scenario to emerge. The evolutionary macro-history nature of AQAL could also inform the construction of any timeline developed to explain, and/or generate signposts of the path to, each scenario.+root questions and the AQAL picture of relevant variables can be used as either prompts and/or as a checklist in the creation of the scenario 'story.' This allows for the scenario descriptions or stories to have an Integral nature, in that they include the subjective and objective aspects of realty in both singular and plural forms. The value is in assisting the creation of a more realistic and holistic picture of the scenario to emerge. The evolutionary macro-history nature of AQAL could also inform the construction of any timeline developed to explain, and/or generate signposts of the path to, each scenario.</blockquote> 
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 +A later article (still to read) can be found here: http://cfaf.com.au/2012/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/Integral_Scenarios_v5_May_2006.pdf
  
  
 +related: [[integral futures]] [[scenario methods]]
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