“One tool that Milo and I developed for strategists to think in detail about the present – in other words to answer the pretty basic strategic question “What is going on?” – is a refinement of Neustadt and May’s work. We call it the “KPUU framework”. It demands strategists answer and get agreement about four simple questions about the present: What do we Know (including how did this issue begin)? What do we Presume? What is Unknown (but could perhaps be discovered by finding the right person or source), and what is essentially Unknowable (e.g. consumer acceptance of chemically-enhanced language learning)? An open debate about what data goes in each column – especially what is Unknown versus what is simply Unknowable at this moment – uncovers a huge number of assumptions and also exposes strategists’ differing rules of evidence. This effort to understand more deeply the present is, in our view, more valuable than most efforts to plumb the depths of uncertain futures.”

“Once the KPUU framework creates an explicit, shared inventory of knowledge about the present, including embedded assumptions, then the question of what it all means (implications) can be asked…”

http://silberzahnjones.com/2012/06/27/crafting-non-predictive-strategy-part-1-close-observation-beats-prediction/