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| future_fabulators:scenario_planning [2014-02-11 05:32] – created nik | future_fabulators:scenario_planning [2014-02-11 07:35] – maja |
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| ==== Scenario Planning ==== | ==== Scenario Planning ==== |
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| ====Scenario planning & scenario thinking==== | This page is a collection of quotes and references on which we build to develop [[scenarios]] with Future Fabulators. |
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| | ===Scenario planning & scenario thinking=== |
| <blockquote> | <blockquote> |
| Scenarios are not predictions. Rather, they are provocative and plausible accounts of how relevant external forces — such as the future political environment, scientific and technological developments, social dynamics, and economic conditions — might interact and evolve, providing our organizations with different challenges and opportunities. | Scenarios are not predictions. Rather, they are provocative and plausible accounts of how relevant external forces — such as the future political environment, scientific and technological developments, social dynamics, and economic conditions — might interact and evolve, providing our organizations with different challenges and opportunities. |
| </blockquote> | </blockquote> |
| in "Why Scenarios?" http://www.gbn.com/about/scenario_planning.php | in "Why Scenarios?" http://www.gbn.com/about/scenario_planning.php |
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| | === Scenario Planning is Not Forecasting === |
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| | <blockquote>Scenario planning is not, or rather should not be, about forecasting the future. Instead, it is a tool for collective learning; what matters is what the scenario team learns in creating it. As an exercise, it is useful; as a strategic map for outsiders, it is relatively useless. Therefore, instead of using it as a map for your organization, ignore its conclusion, ignore the scenarios themselves, and think about the trends, forces and events that the NIC identifies, and then add your own, based on your intuition and expertise. |
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| | In short: |
| | * Don’t fall for the forecasting trap: think about the future, but don’t try to predict it. |
| | * Treat others’ forecasts as a learning exercise: get your strategy team to engage in a strategic conversation about the future using the report as a starting point. |
| | * Pay particular attention to what is not said or not written, and why: the NIC’s effort ignore crucial factors. |
| | * Most importantly, impress upon your strategy team both the unpredictability of the long-term future and the fact that action is frequently the best way to forecast. As Gandhi said in a different context: “Be the change you would find in the world”. |
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| | Ultimately, strategy is about a desired future and how to get there. So don’t ask what the future will be, but rather what future you desire, and how you will bring it about." </blockquote> |
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| | http://www.forbes.com/sites/silberzahnjones/2013/01/17/lady-gaga-world-president-by-2030-why-the-forecasters-so-often-get-it-wrong/ |
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| === How to Build Scenarios === | === How to Build Scenarios === |
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| http://news.noahraford.com/?p=313 | http://news.noahraford.com/?p=313 |
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| | === Scenarios and permaculture === |
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| | <blockquote>FutureScenarios.org presents an integrated approach to understanding the potential interaction between Climate Change and Peak Oil using a scenario planning model. In the process I introduce permaculture as a design system specifically evolved over the last 30 years to creatively respond to futures that involve progressively less and less available energy. </blockquote> |
| | * David Holmgren's website on [[http://www.futurescenarios.org/|Future Scenarios]], where he mixes scenario planning and permaculture design methods. |
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| === Scenarios === | === Scenarios === |
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| http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/000433.html | http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/000433.html |
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| ==== Scenario Planning is Not Forecasting ==== | |
| |
| "Scenario planning is not, or rather should not be, about forecasting the future. Instead, it is a tool for collective learning; what matters is what the scenario team learns in creating it. As an exercise, it is useful; as a strategic map for outsiders, it is relatively useless. Therefore, instead of using it as a map for your organization, ignore its conclusion, ignore the scenarios themselves, and think about the trends, forces and events [...] based on your intuition and expertise." | |
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| http://www.forbes.com/sites/silberzahnjones/2013/01/17/lady-gaga-world-president-by-2030-why-the-forecasters-so-often-get-it-wrong/ | |
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| ---- | ---- |
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| related: [[:resilients/future_preparedness]] | Related reference pages: [[:/forecasting]], [[non_predictive_strategy]] |
| | Notes and [[confabulation]] |
| | Related project: [[:resilients/future_preparedness]] |
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