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--- future_fabulators:scenario_planning [2014-02-11 05:32] – created nik
+++ future_fabulators:scenario_planning [2014-02-12 01:32] – maja
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 ==== Scenario Planning ====
+This page is a collection of quotes and references on which we build to develop [[scenarios]] with Future Fabulators.
+<blockquote>Thinking through [scenario] stories, and talking in depth about their implications, brings each person’s unspoken assumptions about the future to the surface. Scenarios are thus the most powerful vehicles I know for challenging our ‘mental models’ about the world and lifting the ‘blinders’ that limit our creativity and resourcefulness.”</blockquote>
+Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World
 ====Scenario planning & scenario thinking====
@@ Line 7: / Line 12: @@
 in "Why Scenarios?" http://www.gbn.com/about/scenario_planning.php
-=== How to Build Scenarios ===
+==== Scenario Planning is Not Forecasting ====
+<blockquote>Scenario planning is not, or rather should not be, about forecasting the future. Instead, it is a tool for collective learning; what matters is what the scenario team learns in creating it.  As an exercise, it is useful; as a strategic map for outsiders, it is relatively useless.  Therefore, instead of using it as a map for your organization, ignore its conclusion, ignore the scenarios themselves, and think about the trends, forces and events that the NIC identifies, and then add your own, based on your intuition and expertise.
+In short:
+  * Don’t fall for the forecasting trap: think about the future, but don’t try to predict it.
+  * Treat others’ forecasts as a learning exercise: get your strategy team to engage in a strategic conversation about the future using the report as a starting point.
+  * Pay particular attention to what is not said or not written, and why: the NIC’s effort ignore crucial factors.
+  * Most importantly, impress upon your strategy team both the unpredictability of the long-term future and the fact that action is frequently the best way to forecast.  As Gandhi said in a different context:  “Be the change you would find in the world”.
+Ultimately, strategy is about a desired future and how to get there. So don’t ask what the future will be, but rather what future you desire, and how you will bring it about." </blockquote>
+http://www.forbes.com/sites/silberzahnjones/2013/01/17/lady-gaga-world-president-by-2030-why-the-forecasters-so-often-get-it-wrong/
+==== How to Build Scenarios ====
 <blockquote>Scenario planning derives from the observation that, given the impossibility of knowing precisely how the future will play out, a good decision or strategy to adopt is one that plays out well across several possible futures. To find that "robust" strategy, scenarios are created in plural, such that each scenario diverges markedly from the others. These sets of scenarios are, essentially, specially constructed stories about the future, each one modeling a distinct, plausible world in which we might someday have to live and work.
@@ Line 15: / Line 35: @@
 From [[http://www.wired.com/wired/scenarios/build.html|How to Build Scenarios]] by Lawrence Wilkinson
-=== Open source scenarios ===
+==== Open source scenarios ====
 <blockquote>
 Imagine a database of thousands of items all related to understanding how the future could turn out. This database would include narrow concerns and large-scale driving forces alike, would have links to relevant external materials, and would have space for the discussion of and elaboration on the entries. The items in the database would link to scenario documents showing how various forces and changes could combine to produce different possible outcomes. Best of all, the entire construction would be open access, free for the use.
@@ Line 25: / Line 46: @@
 and http://www.worldchanging.com/archives//004246.html
-=== Open foresight ===
+==== Open foresight ====
 "What is Open Foresight? We recently introduced the concept of ‘Open Foresight’ as a process we’re developing to analyze complex issues in an open and collaborative way, and to raise the bar on public discourse and forward-focused critical thinking [...] In simple terms, open foresight is a process for building visions of the future together."
@@ Line 32: / Line 53: @@
   * http://emergentbydesign.com/2012/10/29/open-foresight-model-public-futurism/
-=== Scenarios & dialogue ===
+==== Scenarios & dialogue ====
 <blockquote>The ideal approach to the future combines free speculation and data-driven deduction. Scenarios are an ideal tool for strategic dialogue -- Karl Schroeder</blockquote>
-=== What next for scenario planning? ===
+==== What next for scenario planning? ====
 <blockquote>Recently I have been interviewing a variety of high profile futurists and  up-and-coming strategists on how online approaches are transforming scenario planning and futures work.</blockquote>
@@ Line 41: / Line 62: @@
 http://news.noahraford.com/?p=313
-=== Scenarios ===
+==== Crowdsourced Futures ====
+"Next generation futures systems will therefore have to address the synthesis and interpretation of results in a way that is more substantial and useful than most crowdsourcing solutions today. At the same time, they will also need to engage the social dynamics of participation more directly; why people contribute, what they get out of it, and how it factors into the final product (which will most likely be for a very different, paying, audience)."
+http://noahraford.com/?p=1603
+==== Scenarios and permaculture ====
+<blockquote>FutureScenarios.org presents an integrated approach to understanding the potential interaction between Climate Change and Peak Oil using a scenario planning model. In the process I introduce permaculture as a design system specifically evolved over the last 30 years to creatively respond to futures that involve progressively less and less available energy. </blockquote>
+  * David Holmgren's website on [[http://www.futurescenarios.org/|Future Scenarios]], where he mixes scenario planning and permaculture design methods.
+==== Scenarios ====
   * They're provocative -- they push the readers to think about possibilities they'd often rather not face. While this often means confronting unpleasant outcomes, it can also mean admitting the possibility of success, what it would take to get there, and what one would do if it happened.
@@ Line 51: / Line 83: @@
 http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/000433.html
-==== Scenario Planning is Not Forecasting ====
+==== Steps to developing scenarios ====
-"Scenario planning is not, or rather should not be, about forecasting the future. Instead, it is a tool for collective learning; what matters is what the scenario team learns in creating it.  As an exercise, it is useful; as a strategic map for outsiders, it is relatively useless.  Therefore, instead of using it as a map for your organization, ignore its conclusion, ignore the scenarios themselves, and think about the trends, forces and events [...] based on your intuition and expertise."
+{{ :resilients:scenario-process-diagram.png?1000 |Visual translation of "Steps to developing scenarios" by P. Schwartz}}
-http://www.forbes.com/sites/silberzahnjones/2013/01/17/lady-gaga-world-president-by-2030-why-the-forecasters-so-often-get-it-wrong/
+Diagram prepared with [[http://vue.tufts.edu | VUE]]
-=== Reference ===
+==== References and further reading ====
   * Scenario planning resources. a well organised collection of texts, studies and references. http://www.well.com/~mb/scenario_planning/
   * Slideshow on building scenarios by futuresavvy.com: http://www.slideshare.net/adgo/scenario-building-workshop-how-to-build-and-use-scenarios
@@ Line 64: / Line 95: @@
   * "The Art of the Long View" by Peter Schwartz
   * http://www.driversofchange.com/
+  * Related reference pages: [[:/forecasting]], [[non_predictive_strategy]]
-{{ :resilients:scenario-process-diagram.png?1000 |Visual translation of "Steps to developing scenarios" by P. Schwartz}}
+  * Notes and [[confabulation]]
+  * Related project: [[:resilients/future_preparedness]]
-Diagram prepared with [[http://vue.tufts.edu | VUE]]
-----
-related: [[:resilients/future_preparedness]]