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==== Scenario Planning ==== | ==== Scenario Planning ==== | ||
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+ | This page is a collection of quotes and references on which we build to develop [[scenarios]] with Future Fabulators. If you are interested in how to build scenarios, look at [[scenario methodologies]]. | ||
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+ | < | ||
+ | Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World | ||
====Scenario planning & scenario thinking==== | ====Scenario planning & scenario thinking==== | ||
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in "Why Scenarios?" | in "Why Scenarios?" | ||
- | === How to Build Scenarios === | + | ==== Scenario Planning is Not Forecasting ==== |
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+ | < | ||
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+ | In short: | ||
+ | * Don’t fall for the forecasting trap: think about the future, but don’t try to predict it. | ||
+ | * Treat others’ forecasts as a learning exercise: get your strategy team to engage in a strategic conversation about the future using the report as a starting point. | ||
+ | * Pay particular attention to what is not said or not written, and why: the NIC’s effort ignore crucial factors. | ||
+ | * Most importantly, | ||
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+ | Ultimately, strategy is about a desired future and how to get there. So don’t ask what the future will be, but rather what future you desire, and how you will bring it about." | ||
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+ | http:// | ||
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+ | ==== What is the purpose of scenarios? ==== | ||
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+ | < | ||
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+ | (...) | ||
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+ | The purpose of scenarios is to systematically explore, create, and test both possible and desirable future conditions. Scenarios can help generate long-term policies, strategies, and plans, which help bring desired and likely future circumstances in closer alignment. They can also expose ignorance; show that we do not know how to get to a specific future or that it is impossible. | ||
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+ | Exploratory or descriptive scenarios describe events and trends as they could evolve based on alternative assumptions on how these events and trends may influence the future. Normative scenarios describe how a desirable future can emerge from the present. | ||
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+ | (...) | ||
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+ | In general, the term scenario has been used in two different ways: first, to describe a snapshot in time or the conditions of important variables at some particular time in the future; second, to describe a future history—that is, the evolution from present conditions to one of several futures. | ||
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+ | (...) | ||
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+ | The latter approach is generally preferred because it can lay out the causal chain of decisions and circumstances that lead from the present. The most useful scenarios are those that display the conditions of important variables over time. | ||
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+ | (...) | ||
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+ | The goal of generating scenarios is to understand the mix of strategic decisions that are of maximum benefit in the face of various uncertainties and challenges posed by the external environment. Scenario building, in conjunction with a careful analysis of the driving forces, fosters systematic study of potential future possibilities—both good and bad. | ||
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+ | </ | ||
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+ | From [[http:// | ||
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+ | ==== Scenarios | ||
< | < | ||
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From [[http:// | From [[http:// | ||
- | === Open source scenarios === | + | ==== Open source scenarios ==== |
< | < | ||
Imagine a database of thousands of items all related to understanding how the future could turn out. This database would include narrow concerns and large-scale driving forces alike, would have links to relevant external materials, and would have space for the discussion of and elaboration on the entries. The items in the database would link to scenario documents showing how various forces and changes could combine to produce different possible outcomes. Best of all, the entire construction would be open access, free for the use. | Imagine a database of thousands of items all related to understanding how the future could turn out. This database would include narrow concerns and large-scale driving forces alike, would have links to relevant external materials, and would have space for the discussion of and elaboration on the entries. The items in the database would link to scenario documents showing how various forces and changes could combine to produce different possible outcomes. Best of all, the entire construction would be open access, free for the use. | ||
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and http:// | and http:// | ||
- | === Open foresight === | + | ==== Open foresight |
"What is Open Foresight? We recently introduced the concept of ‘Open Foresight’ as a process we’re developing to analyze complex issues in an open and collaborative way, and to raise the bar on public discourse and forward-focused critical thinking [...] In simple terms, open foresight is a process for building visions of the future together." | "What is Open Foresight? We recently introduced the concept of ‘Open Foresight’ as a process we’re developing to analyze complex issues in an open and collaborative way, and to raise the bar on public discourse and forward-focused critical thinking [...] In simple terms, open foresight is a process for building visions of the future together." | ||
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* http:// | * http:// | ||
- | === Scenarios & dialogue === | + | ==== Scenarios & dialogue |
< | < | ||
- | === What next for scenario planning? === | + | ==== What next for scenario planning? |
< | < | ||
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http:// | http:// | ||
- | === Scenarios === | + | ==== Crowdsourced Futures ==== |
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+ | "Next generation futures systems will therefore have to address the synthesis and interpretation of results in a way that is more substantial and useful than most crowdsourcing solutions today. At the same time, they will also need to engage the social dynamics of participation more directly; why people contribute, what they get out of it, and how it factors into the final product (which will most likely be for a very different, paying, audience)." | ||
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+ | http:// | ||
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+ | ==== Scenarios | ||
+ | |||
+ | < | ||
+ | * David Holmgren' | ||
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+ | ==== Scenarios ==== | ||
* They' | * They' | ||
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http:// | http:// | ||
- | ==== Scenario Planning is Not Forecasting | + | ==== Steps to developing scenarios |
- | " | + | {{ : |
- | + | ||
- | http://www.forbes.com/ | + | |
+ | Diagram prepared with [[http:// | ||
- | === Reference | + | ==== References and further reading ==== |
* Scenario planning resources. a well organised collection of texts, studies and references. http:// | * Scenario planning resources. a well organised collection of texts, studies and references. http:// | ||
* Slideshow on building scenarios by futuresavvy.com: | * Slideshow on building scenarios by futuresavvy.com: | ||
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* "The Art of the Long View" by Peter Schwartz | * "The Art of the Long View" by Peter Schwartz | ||
* http:// | * http:// | ||
- | + | * Related reference pages: [[:/forecasting]], | |
- | {{ :resilients: | + | * Notes and [[confabulation]] |
- | + | * Related project: [[: | |
- | Diagram prepared with [[http:// | + | |
- | + | ||
- | + | ||
- | ---- | + | |
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- | related: [[: | + |