Differences

This shows you the differences between two versions of the page.

--- future_fabulators:scenario_planning [2014-02-11 06:55] – maja
+++ future_fabulators:scenario_planning [2014-02-11 07:35] – maja
@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
 ==== Scenario Planning ====
-====Scenario planning & scenario thinking====
+This page is a collection of quotes and references on which we build to develop [[scenarios]] with Future Fabulators.
+===Scenario planning & scenario thinking===
 <blockquote>
 Scenarios are not predictions. Rather, they are provocative and plausible accounts of how relevant external forces — such as the future political environment, scientific and technological developments, social dynamics, and economic conditions — might interact and evolve, providing our organizations with different challenges and opportunities.
 </blockquote>
 in "Why Scenarios?" http://www.gbn.com/about/scenario_planning.php
+=== Scenario Planning is Not Forecasting ===
 <blockquote>Scenario planning is not, or rather should not be, about forecasting the future. Instead, it is a tool for collective learning; what matters is what the scenario team learns in creating it.  As an exercise, it is useful; as a strategic map for outsiders, it is relatively useless.  Therefore, instead of using it as a map for your organization, ignore its conclusion, ignore the scenarios themselves, and think about the trends, forces and events that the NIC identifies, and then add your own, based on your intuition and expertise.
@@ Line 53: / Line 57: @@
 http://news.noahraford.com/?p=313
+=== Scenarios and permaculture ===
+<blockquote>FutureScenarios.org presents an integrated approach to understanding the potential interaction between Climate Change and Peak Oil using a scenario planning model. In the process I introduce permaculture as a design system specifically evolved over the last 30 years to creatively respond to futures that involve progressively less and less available energy. </blockquote>
+  * David Holmgren's website on [[http://www.futurescenarios.org/|Future Scenarios]], where he mixes scenario planning and permaculture design methods.
 === Scenarios ===
@@ Line 63: / Line 72: @@
 http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/000433.html
-==== Scenario Planning is Not Forecasting ====
-"Scenario planning is not, or rather should not be, about forecasting the future. Instead, it is a tool for collective learning; what matters is what the scenario team learns in creating it.  As an exercise, it is useful; as a strategic map for outsiders, it is relatively useless.  Therefore, instead of using it as a map for your organization, ignore its conclusion, ignore the scenarios themselves, and think about the trends, forces and events [...] based on your intuition and expertise."
-http://www.forbes.com/sites/silberzahnjones/2013/01/17/lady-gaga-world-president-by-2030-why-the-forecasters-so-often-get-it-wrong/
@@ Line 85: / Line 88: @@
 ----
-related: [[:resilients/future_preparedness]]
+Related reference pages: [[:/forecasting]], [[non_predictive_strategy]]
+Notes and [[confabulation]]
+Related project: [[:resilients/future_preparedness]]