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future_fabulators:scenario_planning [2014-02-11 06:58] – maja | future_fabulators:scenario_planning [2014-02-12 01:32] – maja | ||
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==== Scenario Planning ==== | ==== Scenario Planning ==== | ||
- | This page is a collection of quotes and references on which we build to develop [[scenarios]] with Future Fabulators | + | This page is a collection of quotes and references on which we build to develop [[scenarios]] with Future Fabulators. |
+ | |||
+ | < | ||
+ | Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World | ||
====Scenario planning & scenario thinking==== | ====Scenario planning & scenario thinking==== | ||
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- | === How to Build Scenarios === | + | ==== How to Build Scenarios |
< | < | ||
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From [[http:// | From [[http:// | ||
- | === Open source scenarios === | + | ==== Open source scenarios ==== |
< | < | ||
Imagine a database of thousands of items all related to understanding how the future could turn out. This database would include narrow concerns and large-scale driving forces alike, would have links to relevant external materials, and would have space for the discussion of and elaboration on the entries. The items in the database would link to scenario documents showing how various forces and changes could combine to produce different possible outcomes. Best of all, the entire construction would be open access, free for the use. | Imagine a database of thousands of items all related to understanding how the future could turn out. This database would include narrow concerns and large-scale driving forces alike, would have links to relevant external materials, and would have space for the discussion of and elaboration on the entries. The items in the database would link to scenario documents showing how various forces and changes could combine to produce different possible outcomes. Best of all, the entire construction would be open access, free for the use. | ||
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and http:// | and http:// | ||
- | === Open foresight === | + | ==== Open foresight |
"What is Open Foresight? We recently introduced the concept of ‘Open Foresight’ as a process we’re developing to analyze complex issues in an open and collaborative way, and to raise the bar on public discourse and forward-focused critical thinking [...] In simple terms, open foresight is a process for building visions of the future together." | "What is Open Foresight? We recently introduced the concept of ‘Open Foresight’ as a process we’re developing to analyze complex issues in an open and collaborative way, and to raise the bar on public discourse and forward-focused critical thinking [...] In simple terms, open foresight is a process for building visions of the future together." | ||
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* http:// | * http:// | ||
- | === Scenarios & dialogue === | + | ==== Scenarios & dialogue |
< | < | ||
- | === What next for scenario planning? === | + | ==== What next for scenario planning? |
< | < | ||
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http:// | http:// | ||
- | === Scenarios === | + | ==== Crowdsourced Futures ==== |
+ | |||
+ | "Next generation futures systems will therefore have to address the synthesis and interpretation of results in a way that is more substantial and useful than most crowdsourcing solutions today. At the same time, they will also need to engage the social dynamics of participation more directly; why people contribute, what they get out of it, and how it factors into the final product (which will most likely be for a very different, paying, audience)." | ||
+ | |||
+ | http:// | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==== Scenarios | ||
+ | |||
+ | < | ||
+ | * David Holmgren' | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==== Scenarios ==== | ||
* They' | * They' | ||
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http:// | http:// | ||
+ | ==== Steps to developing scenarios ==== | ||
- | === Reference | + | {{ : |
+ | |||
+ | Diagram prepared with [[http:// | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==== References and further reading ==== | ||
* Scenario planning resources. a well organised collection of texts, studies and references. http:// | * Scenario planning resources. a well organised collection of texts, studies and references. http:// | ||
* Slideshow on building scenarios by futuresavvy.com: | * Slideshow on building scenarios by futuresavvy.com: | ||
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* "The Art of the Long View" by Peter Schwartz | * "The Art of the Long View" by Peter Schwartz | ||
* http:// | * http:// | ||
- | + | * Related reference pages: [[:/forecasting]], | |
- | {{ :resilients: | + | * Notes and [[confabulation]] |
- | + | * Related project: [[: | |
- | Diagram prepared with [[http:// | + | |
- | + | ||
- | + | ||
- | ---- | + | |
- | + | ||
- | related: [[: | + |