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--- future_fabulators:scenario_planning [2014-02-19 06:37] – maja
+++ future_fabulators:scenario_planning [2014-02-21 08:43] – maja
@@ Line 7: / Line 7: @@
 <blockquote>... scenario writing (...) is fundamentally an act of evidence-based imagination" -Geoffrey Coyle </blockquote>
+<blockquote>"In my experience, scenario planning is an interpretive practice – it’s really closer to magic than technique. ... Look long enough, hard enough, and the pieces will fall into place. Magic is a very difficult thing – most people spend their whole life cutting magic out.” --Napier Collyns</blockquote>
+<blockquote>A good scenario grabs us by the collar and says, "Take a good look at this future. This could be your future. Are you going to be ready?"</blockquote>
+From: [[http://www.universitiesuk.ac.uk/aboutus/whatwedo/PolicyAnalysis/UKHigherEducation/Futures/Documents/current_state_of_scenario_development_FORESIGHT.pdf|the current state of scenario development]]
+==== Scenarios as disruptions ====
+<blockquote>A basic tenet of futures studies is that images of the future inform the decisions people make and how they act. The notion that human purpose can affect the course of events to create futures that are significant transformations of the present underlies all of futures research.
+(…) these depictions are not predictions: while based on probabilistic forecasts, their primary purpose is to guide exploration of possible future states. Their goal is to "disturb the present," in Gaston Berger's words (1967). The best scenarios do so by describing alternative future outcomes that diverge significantly from the present. </blockquote>
+From [[http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/13-4/AE03.pdf|Roads Less Travelled]] by Wendy Schulz et al
 ====Scenario planning & scenario thinking====