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| future_fabulators:scenario_methods [2014-02-13 04:30] – created maja | future_fabulators:scenario_methods [2014-02-13 04:47] – maja | ||
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| ==== Scenario Methods ==== | ==== Scenario Methods ==== | ||
| - | This page is an evolving collection of different steps that can be used in scenario building, different methods that we (could) use and links to interesting people/ | + | This page is an evolving, non-exhaustive |
| === Preparation beforehand === | === Preparation beforehand === | ||
| - | **What can we/ | + | //What can we/ |
| Commonly the people organising the workshop will "Work on identifying major drivers, trends and events should be initiated ahead of the first workshop: this is an opportunity to draw on relevant horizon scanning work and other analysis. Ideally this work will be synthesised into a format which can be accessed easily by workshop participants, | Commonly the people organising the workshop will "Work on identifying major drivers, trends and events should be initiated ahead of the first workshop: this is an opportunity to draw on relevant horizon scanning work and other analysis. Ideally this work will be synthesised into a format which can be accessed easily by workshop participants, | ||
| Line 13: | Line 13: | ||
| * Interviews, questionnaires for participants beforehand | * Interviews, questionnaires for participants beforehand | ||
| * Collective horizon scanning (facilitators, | * Collective horizon scanning (facilitators, | ||
| + | * ... | ||
| - | **What are the ideal settings (e.g. room size per person) for a scenario workshop?** | + | //What are the ideal settings (e.g. room size per person) for a scenario workshop?// |
| * a large, long smooth wall or white/ | * a large, long smooth wall or white/ | ||
| Line 26: | Line 27: | ||
| * ' | * ' | ||
| * easy access to outdoor spaces | * easy access to outdoor spaces | ||
| + | * ... | ||
| === Key question === | === Key question === | ||
| - | **What are good questions | + | //How to craft good questions?// |
| * [[http:// | * [[http:// | ||
| - | **How to better structure/ | + | //How to better structure/ |
| * [[https:// | * [[https:// | ||
| - | **How can we encourage an ' | + | //How can we encourage an ' |
| Why does it seem more difficult to phrase questions rather than stating problems? | Why does it seem more difficult to phrase questions rather than stating problems? | ||
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| === Plotting the present situation === | === Plotting the present situation === | ||
| - | **What are different ways to map-out the present situation surrounding the key question?** | + | //What are different ways to map-out the present situation surrounding the key question?// |
| * [[KPUU Framework]] | * [[KPUU Framework]] | ||
| - | **When to use this step? ** | + | //When to use this step?// |
| When can it be reduced/ | When can it be reduced/ | ||
| + | |||
| + | //What does a ' | ||
| + | |||
| - | **When does it help to talk about things that are fixed, or constraints that exist?** | + | |
| + | //When does it help to talk about things that are fixed, or constraints that exist?// | ||
| * in a workshop where the group had a pressing need to resolve a situation, talking about what is fixed quickly gave a picture of what was still possible to change and what was the space in which the group could move to find solutions to a blockage | * in a workshop where the group had a pressing need to resolve a situation, talking about what is fixed quickly gave a picture of what was still possible to change and what was the space in which the group could move to find solutions to a blockage | ||
| Line 58: | Line 64: | ||
| === Key factors === | === Key factors === | ||
| - | **How to best visualise and cluster the relationships between key factors** | + | //How to best visualise and cluster the relationships between key factors// |
| * " | * " | ||
| - | ** What do we mean by internal | + | // What do we mean by key factors?// |
| * internal (local) drivers of change | * internal (local) drivers of change | ||
| Line 73: | Line 79: | ||
| * how can we have a more constructive discussion about the macro trends which results in something more meaningful than a list of assumptions? | * how can we have a more constructive discussion about the macro trends which results in something more meaningful than a list of assumptions? | ||
| * how do we look at drivers as dynamic forces? should we be looking at responses to trends rather than trends in general? (nouns -> verbs) | * how do we look at drivers as dynamic forces? should we be looking at responses to trends rather than trends in general? (nouns -> verbs) | ||
| - | * what are existing ways of discussing trends with groups of people? | + | |
| - | * [[horizon scanning]] | + | // |
| - | * [[http:// | + | * See various methods on the [[horizon scanning]] |
| - | * [[http:// | + | |
| - | * [[http:// | + | * should we make our own STEEP (or related) |
| - | * [[http:// | + | |
| - | * [[http:// | + | |
| - | * should we make our own STEEP cards to avoid the ' | + | |
| * are there other well understood methods to group trends other than the customary STEEP (in which cultural changes seem to be clumped in with social or political)? | * are there other well understood methods to group trends other than the customary STEEP (in which cultural changes seem to be clumped in with social or political)? | ||
| * is there another way to look at large scale changes aside from trends (without having to do a PhD in each of the changes)? | * is there another way to look at large scale changes aside from trends (without having to do a PhD in each of the changes)? | ||
| * how effective are these methods and how can we usefully evalute them? | * how effective are these methods and how can we usefully evalute them? | ||
| - | * what does a ' | ||
| === Ranking critical uncertainties === | === Ranking critical uncertainties === | ||
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| === Scenarios === | === Scenarios === | ||
| - | * when to use one, two, three or more axes? | + | // |
| - | * Two axes method: Scenarios generated using the ‘two axes’ process are illustrative rather than predictive; they tend to be high-level (although additional layers of detail can subsequently be added). They are particularly suited to testing medium to long-term policy direction, by ensuring that it is robust in a range of environments. Scenarios developed using this method tend to look out 10-20 years.[[http:// | + | * __Two axes method__: Scenarios generated using the ‘two axes’ process are illustrative rather than predictive; they tend to be high-level (although additional layers of detail can subsequently be added). They are particularly suited to testing medium to long-term policy direction, by ensuring that it is robust in a range of environments. Scenarios developed using this method tend to look out 10-20 years.[[http:// |
| - | * Branch | + | * __Branch |
| - | * Cone of plausibility | + | * __Cone |
| * [[http:// | * [[http:// | ||
| * [[http:// | * [[http:// | ||
| Line 103: | Line 105: | ||
| * [[http:// | * [[http:// | ||
| - | * how to better structure building scenario skeletons with guiding questions (which questions could be generalised? | + | |
| + | //How to better structure building scenario skeletons with guiding questions (which questions could be generalised)?// | ||
nik