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| future_fabulators:scenario_methods [2014-02-13 04:47] – maja | future_fabulators:scenario_methods [2014-02-13 06:12] – maja |
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| === Key factors === | === Key factors === |
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| //How to best visualise and cluster the relationships between key factors// | //What are different ways to visualise and cluster the relationships between key factors// |
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| | * Affinity diagram |
| | * [[http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newTED_06.htm|Force Field Analysis by Kurt Lewin]], where the key question is placed in the middle, forces exerting pressure for the change on the left, and against the change on the right. |
| * "interrogate anomalies: data or incidents that seem anomalous - that somehow “don’t fit”, seem weird or don’t make sense, should receive immediate attention. They could be pointers to a shift in the system as a whole" From: http://silberzahnjones.com/2012/10/04/crafting-non-linear-strategy-the-nature-of-the-problem/#more-799 | * "interrogate anomalies: data or incidents that seem anomalous - that somehow “don’t fit”, seem weird or don’t make sense, should receive immediate attention. They could be pointers to a shift in the system as a whole" From: http://silberzahnjones.com/2012/10/04/crafting-non-linear-strategy-the-nature-of-the-problem/#more-799 |
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| * what are different ways in which this is done by others? | * what are different ways in which this is done by others? |
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| | * [[http://www.swemorph.com/ma.html|Morphological Analysis]] could be a great way to work with a large number of clustered drivers, that can be combined in different ways to select a smaller set of important and/or quickly create basic scenario skeletons. The foodprints ruler from FoAM Nordica works on a similar principle. |
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| === Scenarios === | === Scenarios === |
| * __Branch analysis method__: The ‘branch analysis’ method is suited to developing scenarios around specific turning-points that are known in advance (e.g. elections, a referendum or peace process). This approach works best for a shorter time horizon: generally up to five years.[[http://www.eisf.eu/resources/download.asp?d=5764|The Horizon Scanning Centre (pdf)]] | * __Branch analysis method__: The ‘branch analysis’ method is suited to developing scenarios around specific turning-points that are known in advance (e.g. elections, a referendum or peace process). This approach works best for a shorter time horizon: generally up to five years.[[http://www.eisf.eu/resources/download.asp?d=5764|The Horizon Scanning Centre (pdf)]] |
| * __Cone of plausibility__ method: offers a more deterministic model of the way in which drivers lead to outcomes, by explicitly listing assumptions and how these might change. Of the three techniques, this approach is most suitable for shorter-term time horizons (e.g. a few months to 2-3 years), but can be used to explore longer-term time horizons. It also suits contexts with a limited number of important drivers.[[http://www.eisf.eu/resources/download.asp?d=5764|The Horizon Scanning Centre (pdf)]] | * __Cone of plausibility__ method: offers a more deterministic model of the way in which drivers lead to outcomes, by explicitly listing assumptions and how these might change. Of the three techniques, this approach is most suitable for shorter-term time horizons (e.g. a few months to 2-3 years), but can be used to explore longer-term time horizons. It also suits contexts with a limited number of important drivers.[[http://www.eisf.eu/resources/download.asp?d=5764|The Horizon Scanning Centre (pdf)]] |
| * [[http://www.skymark.com/resources/tools/cause.asp|Cause & Effect Scenario Generation]] | |
| * [[http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newTED_06.htmForce Field Analysis]] | * [[http://www.swemorph.com/ma.html|Morphological Analysis]] could be a great way to work with a large number of clustered drivers, that can be combined in different ways to select a smaller set of important and/or quickly create basic scenario skeletons. The foodprints ruler from FoAM Nordica works on a similar principle. |
| * [[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backcasting|Backcasting]] | |
| * [[http://www.swemorph.com/ma.html|Morphological Analysis]] | |
| * [[http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/2000/PDFs/ducz124p.pdf|Field Anomaly Relaxation]] | * [[http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/2000/PDFs/ducz124p.pdf|Field Anomaly Relaxation]] |
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| * how to create rich characters and meaningful plots? | * how to create rich characters and meaningful plots? |
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| === Scenario testing === | === Retrocasting === |
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| | Searching for present signals, asking the question "how to get from here to there". Aka Backcasting [[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backcasting|Backcasting]]: |
| | Backcasting starts with defining a desirable future and then works backwards to identify policies and programs that will connect the future to the present. |
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| | However with retrocasting/retrotesting or scenario testing (as we also call it sometimes) we don't look at exclusively at a desirable future, but at different possible futures resulting from scenario building, and attempt to identify signals in the present that might point to the future moving in this or that direction. |
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| | //What tools can we use to structure scenario testing?// |
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| | [[http://www.skymark.com/resources/tools/cause.asp|Cause & Effect Diagram]]: "The cause and effect diagram is used to explore all the potential or real causes (or inputs) that result in a single effect (or output). Causes are arranged according to their level of importance or detail, resulting in a depiction of relationships and hierarchy of events." In scenario testing this could be used not as 'cause and effect', but how to get there from here (note down a topic from the scenario, then work backwards to see what would have to happen to make it happen). |
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| | <html><a href="http://www.skymark.com/images/fishbone.gif"><img src="http://www.skymark.com/images/fishbone.gif"></a></html> |
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| | Another interesting possibility is to abstract principles from a scenario and retrocast from them. In [[http://www.naturalstep.org/backcasting|this article]] they suggest not to use scenarios at all, but to work from agreed upon sustainability principles. |
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| | <html><a href="http://www.naturalstep.org/sites/all/files/Backcasting_AllBox.png"><img src="http://www.naturalstep.org/sites/all/files/Backcasting_AllBox.png" width="500"></a></html> |
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| (signals, how to get from here to there) | |
| * how is this done by others? | |
| * what are important things to focus on? | * what are important things to focus on? |
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nik