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| future_fabulators:scenario_methods [2014-02-13 04:47] – maja | future_fabulators:scenario_methods [2014-02-14 08:25] – [Scenario Methods] maja | ||
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| - | ==== Scenario Methods ==== | + | ===== Scenario Methods |
| - | This page is an evolving, non-exhaustive collection of different steps that can be used in scenario building, different methods that we (could) use and links to interesting people/ | + | This page is an evolving, non-exhaustive collection of different steps that can be used in scenario building, different methods that we (could) use and links to interesting people/ |
| + | An overview of the whole process written for novice scenario builders can be found in [[http:// | ||
| - | === Preparation beforehand === | + | An in depth overview of [[http:// |
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| + | The scenario building exercise (step 1-6) in the [[prehearsal pocket guide]] is based on the method by Peter Schwartz in The Art of the Long View) | ||
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| + | Michel Godet writes in [[http:// | ||
| + | simple tools that may be appropriated. However, these simple tools are inspired by intellectual rigor that enables one to ask the right questions. Of course, these tools do not come with a guarantee. The natural talent, | ||
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| + | ==== Preparation beforehand | ||
| //What can we/ | //What can we/ | ||
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| * ... | * ... | ||
| - | === Key question === | + | ==== Key question |
| //How to craft good questions?// | //How to craft good questions?// | ||
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| - | === Plotting the present situation === | + | ==== Plotting the present situation |
| //What are different ways to map-out the present situation surrounding the key question?// | //What are different ways to map-out the present situation surrounding the key question?// | ||
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| * on the other hand, in more open-ended workshops (say in the beginning of projects) talking about what's fixed created some discomfort (or perhaps it was just unclear what we meant by fixed) | * on the other hand, in more open-ended workshops (say in the beginning of projects) talking about what's fixed created some discomfort (or perhaps it was just unclear what we meant by fixed) | ||
| - | === Key factors === | + | ==== Key factors |
| - | //How to best visualise and cluster the relationships between key factors// | + | //What are different ways to visualise and cluster the relationships between key factors// |
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| + | * Affinity diagram | ||
| + | * [[http:// | ||
| * " | * " | ||
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| * success criteria (what will make my question succeed or fail) | * success criteria (what will make my question succeed or fail) | ||
| - | === Change Drivers === | + | ==== Change Drivers |
| * how much analysis is appropriate for the types of scenarios and prehearsals we’re making? | * how much analysis is appropriate for the types of scenarios and prehearsals we’re making? | ||
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| * how effective are these methods and how can we usefully evalute them? | * how effective are these methods and how can we usefully evalute them? | ||
| - | === Ranking critical uncertainties === | + | ==== Ranking critical uncertainties |
| * what are different ways in which this is done by others? | * what are different ways in which this is done by others? | ||
| - | === Scenarios === | + | * [[http:// |
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| + | ==== Scenarios | ||
| //When to use one, two, three or more axes// | //When to use one, two, three or more axes// | ||
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| * __Branch analysis method__: The ‘branch analysis’ method is suited to developing scenarios around specific turning-points that are known in advance (e.g. elections, a referendum or peace process). This approach works best for a shorter time horizon: generally up to five years.[[http:// | * __Branch analysis method__: The ‘branch analysis’ method is suited to developing scenarios around specific turning-points that are known in advance (e.g. elections, a referendum or peace process). This approach works best for a shorter time horizon: generally up to five years.[[http:// | ||
| * __Cone of plausibility__ method: offers a more deterministic model of the way in which drivers lead to outcomes, by explicitly listing assumptions and how these might change. Of the three techniques, this approach is most suitable for shorter-term time horizons (e.g. a few months to 2-3 years), but can be used to explore longer-term time horizons. It also suits contexts with a limited number of important drivers.[[http:// | * __Cone of plausibility__ method: offers a more deterministic model of the way in which drivers lead to outcomes, by explicitly listing assumptions and how these might change. Of the three techniques, this approach is most suitable for shorter-term time horizons (e.g. a few months to 2-3 years), but can be used to explore longer-term time horizons. It also suits contexts with a limited number of important drivers.[[http:// | ||
| - | | + | |
| - | * [[http:// | + | * [[http:// |
| - | * [[http:// | + | |
| - | * [[http:// | + | |
| * [[http:// | * [[http:// | ||
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| - | === From scenarios to story-worlds === | + | ==== From scenarios to story-worlds |
| * what techniques can we use to flesh out the scenarios into interesting stories | * what techniques can we use to flesh out the scenarios into interesting stories | ||
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| * how to create rich characters and meaningful plots? | * how to create rich characters and meaningful plots? | ||
| - | === Scenario testing | + | ==== Retrocasting ==== |
| - | + | ||
| + | "The best kinds of stories are about how you get from here to there, not just what there looks like." --Jamais Cascio | ||
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| + | Searching for present signals, asking the question "how to get from here to there" | ||
| + | Backcasting starts with defining a desirable future and then works backwards to identify policies and programs that will connect the future to the present. | ||
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| + | However with retrocasting/ | ||
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| + | //What tools can we use to structure scenario testing?// | ||
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| + | [[http:// | ||
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| + | < | ||
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| + | Another interesting possibility is to abstract principles from a scenario and retrocast from them. In [[http:// | ||
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| - | (signals, how to get from here to there) | ||
| - | * how is this done by others? | ||
| * what are important things to focus on? | * what are important things to focus on? | ||
| - | === Visualising === | + | ==== Visualising |
| * which methods could we use to visualise possible futures? | * which methods could we use to visualise possible futures? | ||
| - | === Prototyping === | + | ==== Prototyping |
| * which methods could we use to prototype possible futures? | * which methods could we use to prototype possible futures? | ||
| - | === Prehearsals === | + | ==== Prehearsals |
| * how to design them? | * how to design them? | ||
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| * how to evaluate them? | * how to evaluate them? | ||
| - | === Follow-up === | + | ==== Follow-up |
| * How can we follow-up what happens to the groups after we finish the workshops (especially to understand what happens to commitments to actions and preferred possible futures)? | * How can we follow-up what happens to the groups after we finish the workshops (especially to understand what happens to commitments to actions and preferred possible futures)? | ||
| * How much do we need to be involved in the follow-up? | * How much do we need to be involved in the follow-up? | ||
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