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| - | ==== Scenario Methods ==== | + | ===== Scenario Methods |
| - | This page is an evolving, non-exhaustive collection of different steps that can be used in scenario building, different methods that we (could) use and links to interesting people/ | + | This page is an evolving, non-exhaustive collection of different steps that can be used in scenario building, different methods that we (could) use and links to interesting people/ |
| + | An overview of the whole process written for novice scenario builders can be found in [[http:// | ||
| - | === Preparation beforehand === | + | There are many descriptions of scenario planning methods, with the biggest difference being whether the scenarios are designed to be exploratory (multiple alternative scenarios for different possible futures), or normative (designing a desired scenario, then figuring out what needs to be done in order to get there). When working with normative scenarios the most important task is ' |
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| + | Joseph Coates wrote "Today the question of what scenarios are is unclear except with regard to one point-they have become extremely popular. Many people see scenarios as forecasts of some future condition while others disavow that their scenarios are forecasts. Yet looking at scenarios that do not come labeled as forecasts or non-forecasts. It is difficult to tell them apart. The purpose of the scenario is at a meta level, since the scenario usually does not speak for itself in terms of its purpose." | ||
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| + | The scenario building exercise (step 1-6) in the [[prehearsal pocket guide]] is based on the method by Peter Schwartz in The Art of the Long View. On [[http:// | ||
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| + | Michel Godet writes in [[http:// | ||
| + | simple tools that may be appropriated. However, these simple tools are inspired by intellectual rigor that enables one to ask the right questions. Of course, these tools do not come with a guarantee. The natural talent, | ||
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| + | The "Cone of Plausibility, | ||
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| + | Anna Maria Orru and David Relan wrote [[:/ | ||
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| + | More methods are described in the Futures Research Methodologies [[http:// | ||
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| + | Finally, an interesting avenue to explore are remote scenario planning workshops using various online collaboration tools. Jamais Cascio describes [[http:// | ||
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| + | Below we explore different elements of scenario building, ask questions that emerged from our practice and investigate methods that might be used to improve the process. | ||
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| + | ==== Preparation beforehand | ||
| //What can we/ | //What can we/ | ||
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| * ... | * ... | ||
| - | === Key question === | + | ==== Key question |
| //How to craft good questions?// | //How to craft good questions?// | ||
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| * [[https:// | * [[https:// | ||
| - | //How can we encourage an 'inquiring | + | Questions |
| Why does it seem more difficult to phrase questions rather than stating problems? | Why does it seem more difficult to phrase questions rather than stating problems? | ||
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| - | === Plotting the present situation === | + | ==== Plotting the present situation |
| //What are different ways to map-out the present situation surrounding the key question?// | //What are different ways to map-out the present situation surrounding the key question?// | ||
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| * on the other hand, in more open-ended workshops (say in the beginning of projects) talking about what's fixed created some discomfort (or perhaps it was just unclear what we meant by fixed) | * on the other hand, in more open-ended workshops (say in the beginning of projects) talking about what's fixed created some discomfort (or perhaps it was just unclear what we meant by fixed) | ||
| - | === Key factors === | + | ==== Key factors |
| - | //How to best visualise and cluster the relationships between key factors// | + | //What are different ways to visualise and cluster the relationships between key factors// |
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| + | * Affinity diagram | ||
| + | * [[http:// | ||
| * " | * " | ||
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| * success criteria (what will make my question succeed or fail) | * success criteria (what will make my question succeed or fail) | ||
| - | === Change Drivers === | + | ==== Change Drivers |
| * how much analysis is appropriate for the types of scenarios and prehearsals we’re making? | * how much analysis is appropriate for the types of scenarios and prehearsals we’re making? | ||
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| * how effective are these methods and how can we usefully evalute them? | * how effective are these methods and how can we usefully evalute them? | ||
| - | === Ranking critical uncertainties === | + | ==== Ranking critical uncertainties |
| * what are different ways in which this is done by others? | * what are different ways in which this is done by others? | ||
| - | === Scenarios === | + | * [[http:// |
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| + | ==== Scenarios | ||
| //When to use one, two, three or more axes// | //When to use one, two, three or more axes// | ||
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| * __Branch analysis method__: The ‘branch analysis’ method is suited to developing scenarios around specific turning-points that are known in advance (e.g. elections, a referendum or peace process). This approach works best for a shorter time horizon: generally up to five years.[[http:// | * __Branch analysis method__: The ‘branch analysis’ method is suited to developing scenarios around specific turning-points that are known in advance (e.g. elections, a referendum or peace process). This approach works best for a shorter time horizon: generally up to five years.[[http:// | ||
| * __Cone of plausibility__ method: offers a more deterministic model of the way in which drivers lead to outcomes, by explicitly listing assumptions and how these might change. Of the three techniques, this approach is most suitable for shorter-term time horizons (e.g. a few months to 2-3 years), but can be used to explore longer-term time horizons. It also suits contexts with a limited number of important drivers.[[http:// | * __Cone of plausibility__ method: offers a more deterministic model of the way in which drivers lead to outcomes, by explicitly listing assumptions and how these might change. Of the three techniques, this approach is most suitable for shorter-term time horizons (e.g. a few months to 2-3 years), but can be used to explore longer-term time horizons. It also suits contexts with a limited number of important drivers.[[http:// | ||
| - | | + | |
| - | * [[http:// | + | * [[Morphological Analysis]] |
| - | * [[http:// | + | |
| - | * [[http:// | + | |
| - | * [[http://www.systemdynamics.org/ | + | |
| + | * More on [[Field Anomaly Relaxation]] | ||
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| + | (After reading several papers about this, I wonder what is the difference between MA and FAR?-maja) | ||
| //How to better structure building scenario skeletons with guiding questions (which questions could be generalised)?// | //How to better structure building scenario skeletons with guiding questions (which questions could be generalised)?// | ||
| - | === From scenarios to story-worlds === | + | ==== From scenarios to story-worlds |
| * what techniques can we use to flesh out the scenarios into interesting stories | * what techniques can we use to flesh out the scenarios into interesting stories | ||
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| * how to create rich characters and meaningful plots? | * how to create rich characters and meaningful plots? | ||
| - | === Scenario testing | + | ==== Retrocasting ==== |
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| + | "The best kinds of stories are about how you get from here to there, not just what there looks like." --Jamais Cascio | ||
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| + | Searching for present signals, asking the question "how to get from here to there" | ||
| + | Backcasting starts with defining a desirable future and then works backwards to identify policies and programs that will connect the future to the present. | ||
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| + | However with retrocasting/ | ||
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| + | //What tools can we use to structure scenario testing?// | ||
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| + | [[http:// | ||
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| + | Another interesting possibility is to abstract principles from a scenario and retrocast from them. In [[http:// | ||
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| - | (signals, how to get from here to there) | ||
| - | * how is this done by others? | ||
| * what are important things to focus on? | * what are important things to focus on? | ||
| - | === Visualising === | + | ==== Visualising |
| * which methods could we use to visualise possible futures? | * which methods could we use to visualise possible futures? | ||
| - | === Prototyping === | + | ==== Prototyping |
| * which methods could we use to prototype possible futures? | * which methods could we use to prototype possible futures? | ||
| - | === Prehearsals === | + | ==== Prehearsals |
| * how to design them? | * how to design them? | ||
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| * how to evaluate them? | * how to evaluate them? | ||
| - | === Follow-up === | + | ==== Follow-up |
| * How can we follow-up what happens to the groups after we finish the workshops (especially to understand what happens to commitments to actions and preferred possible futures)? | * How can we follow-up what happens to the groups after we finish the workshops (especially to understand what happens to commitments to actions and preferred possible futures)? | ||
| * How much do we need to be involved in the follow-up? | * How much do we need to be involved in the follow-up? | ||
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| + | ==== Futures research methods ==== | ||
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| + | From: [[https:// | ||
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nik