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| future_fabulators:scenario_methods [2014-02-13 06:12] – maja | future_fabulators:scenario_methods [2014-02-14 05:24] – nik | ||
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| - | ==== Scenario Methods ==== | + | ===== Scenario Methods |
| This page is an evolving, non-exhaustive collection of different steps that can be used in scenario building, different methods that we (could) use and links to interesting people/ | This page is an evolving, non-exhaustive collection of different steps that can be used in scenario building, different methods that we (could) use and links to interesting people/ | ||
| - | === Preparation beforehand === | + | ==== Preparation beforehand |
| //What can we/ | //What can we/ | ||
| Line 29: | Line 29: | ||
| * ... | * ... | ||
| - | === Key question === | + | ==== Key question |
| //How to craft good questions?// | //How to craft good questions?// | ||
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| - | === Plotting the present situation === | + | ==== Plotting the present situation |
| //What are different ways to map-out the present situation surrounding the key question?// | //What are different ways to map-out the present situation surrounding the key question?// | ||
| Line 62: | Line 62: | ||
| * on the other hand, in more open-ended workshops (say in the beginning of projects) talking about what's fixed created some discomfort (or perhaps it was just unclear what we meant by fixed) | * on the other hand, in more open-ended workshops (say in the beginning of projects) talking about what's fixed created some discomfort (or perhaps it was just unclear what we meant by fixed) | ||
| - | === Key factors === | + | ==== Key factors |
| //What are different ways to visualise and cluster the relationships between key factors// | //What are different ways to visualise and cluster the relationships between key factors// | ||
| Line 75: | Line 75: | ||
| * success criteria (what will make my question succeed or fail) | * success criteria (what will make my question succeed or fail) | ||
| - | === Change Drivers === | + | ==== Change Drivers |
| * how much analysis is appropriate for the types of scenarios and prehearsals we’re making? | * how much analysis is appropriate for the types of scenarios and prehearsals we’re making? | ||
| Line 91: | Line 91: | ||
| * how effective are these methods and how can we usefully evalute them? | * how effective are these methods and how can we usefully evalute them? | ||
| - | === Ranking critical uncertainties === | + | ==== Ranking critical uncertainties |
| * what are different ways in which this is done by others? | * what are different ways in which this is done by others? | ||
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| * [[http:// | * [[http:// | ||
| - | === Scenarios === | + | ==== Scenarios |
| //When to use one, two, three or more axes// | //When to use one, two, three or more axes// | ||
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| - | === From scenarios to story-worlds === | + | ==== From scenarios to story-worlds |
| * what techniques can we use to flesh out the scenarios into interesting stories | * what techniques can we use to flesh out the scenarios into interesting stories | ||
| Line 119: | Line 119: | ||
| * how to create rich characters and meaningful plots? | * how to create rich characters and meaningful plots? | ||
| - | === Retrocasting === | + | ==== Retrocasting ==== |
| + | |||
| + | "The best kinds of stories are about how you get from here to there, not just what there looks like." --Jamais Cascio | ||
| Searching for present signals, asking the question "how to get from here to there" | Searching for present signals, asking the question "how to get from here to there" | ||
| Line 140: | Line 142: | ||
| * what are important things to focus on? | * what are important things to focus on? | ||
| - | === Visualising === | + | ==== Visualising |
| * which methods could we use to visualise possible futures? | * which methods could we use to visualise possible futures? | ||
| - | === Prototyping === | + | ==== Prototyping |
| * which methods could we use to prototype possible futures? | * which methods could we use to prototype possible futures? | ||
| - | === Prehearsals === | + | ==== Prehearsals |
| * how to design them? | * how to design them? | ||
| Line 154: | Line 156: | ||
| * how to evaluate them? | * how to evaluate them? | ||
| - | === Follow-up === | + | ==== Follow-up |
| * How can we follow-up what happens to the groups after we finish the workshops (especially to understand what happens to commitments to actions and preferred possible futures)? | * How can we follow-up what happens to the groups after we finish the workshops (especially to understand what happens to commitments to actions and preferred possible futures)? | ||
| * How much do we need to be involved in the follow-up? | * How much do we need to be involved in the follow-up? | ||
| + | |||
nik