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| future_fabulators:scenario_methods [2014-02-14 08:55] – maja | future_fabulators:scenario_methods [2014-02-19 05:52] – [Prototyping] maja |
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| This page is an evolving, non-exhaustive collection of different steps that can be used in scenario building, different methods that we (could) use and links to interesting people/project using scenarios in their work. | This page is an evolving, non-exhaustive collection of different steps that can be used in scenario building, different methods that we (could) use and links to interesting people/project using scenarios in their work. |
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| An overview of the whole process written for novice scenario builders can be found in [[http://www.wired.com/wired/scenarios/build.html|How to Build Scenarios]] by Lawrence Wilkinson. Interesting [[http://www.openthefuture.com/2012/08/ten_rules_for_creating_awful_s.html| Ten Rules for Creating Awful Scenarios]], can be used as a checklist of what NOT to do in scenario building. | An overview of the whole process written for novice scenario builders can be found in [[http://www.wired.com/wired/scenarios/build.html|How to Build Scenarios]] by Lawrence Wilkinson. Interesting [[http://www.openthefuture.com/2012/08/ten_rules_for_creating_awful_s.html| Ten Rules for Creating Awful Scenarios]] by Jamais Cascio, can be used as a checklist of what NOT to do in scenario building. |
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| There are many descriptions of scenario planning methods, with the biggest difference being whether the scenarios are designed to be exploratory (multiple alternative scenarios for different possible futures), or normative (designing a desired scenario, then figuring out what needs to be done in order to get there). When working with normative scenarios the most important task is 'backcasting' or 'retrocasting' as we prefer to call it (see chapter about this lower on this page). With exploratory scenarios a lot of the time is spent on creating the elements of the scenario based on the present of the internal and external environment, as well as forces that can influence change in both. Most scenario methods revolve around approximately the same phases: (1) delineating the space/issue/question (2) identifying elements of the scenario (factors, drivers, trends, measures, actors, events...) 3) selecting a reasonable amount of elements 4) projecting the elements in the given future in the form of multiple scenarios and 5) using scenarios to (re)design decisions, strategies and actions in the present. There are many different variations of scenario building flow. We list a few below: | There are many descriptions of scenario planning methods, with the biggest difference being whether the scenarios are designed to be exploratory (multiple alternative scenarios for different possible futures), or normative (designing a desired scenario, then figuring out what needs to be done in order to get there). When working with normative scenarios the most important task is 'backcasting' or 'retrocasting' as we prefer to call it (see chapter about this lower on this page). With exploratory scenarios a lot of the time is spent on creating the elements of the scenario based on the present of the internal and external environment, as well as forces that can influence change in both. Most scenario methods revolve around approximately the same phases: (1) delineating the space/issue/question (2) identifying elements of the scenario (factors, drivers, trends, measures, actors, events...) 3) selecting a reasonable amount of elements 4) projecting the elements in the given future in the form of multiple scenarios and 5) using scenarios to (re)design decisions, strategies and actions in the present. There are many different variations of scenario building flow. We list a few below: |
| <html><a href=http://loganadia.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/fig208_01_0.jpg"><img src="http://loganadia.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/fig208_01_0.jpg"></a></html> | <html><a href=http://loganadia.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/fig208_01_0.jpg"><img src="http://loganadia.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/fig208_01_0.jpg"></a></html> |
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| | The "Cone of Plausibility, according to [[http://www.dtic.mil%2Fcgi-bin%2FGetTRDoc%3FAD%3DADA231618&ei=rdUCU-3QBIeSkwWG5oCYBA&usg=AFQjCNFbeM4KuYTqsIZaZYoaNholFliILg&sig2=ipuUxnViugB2ksDibwNYHQ|Charles W. Taylor]], “serves as an enclosure that circumscribes the thought process of the players. The strength of their thought process to build these scenarios and to hold them together as they proceed outward in time is a counterforce to the pressures of wild cards to disrupt the cone. Scenarios within the cone are considered plausible if they ad|here to a logical progression of trends, events, and consequences from today to a predetermined time in the future” |
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| Anna Maria Orru and David Relan wrote [[:/resilients/scenario_symphony|The Scenario Symphony]] for the Resilients project, containing a whole range of scenario creation methods. | <html><a href=https://gs1.wac.edgecastcdn.net/8019B6/data.tumblr.com/tumblr_m8wsufwhnz1qz8vtso1_1280.jpg"><img src="https://gs1.wac.edgecastcdn.net/8019B6/data.tumblr.com/tumblr_m8wsufwhnz1qz8vtso1_1280.jpg"></a></html> |
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| | Anna Maria Orru and David Relan wrote [[:/resilients/scenario_symphony|The Scenario Symphony]] for the Resilients project, containing a whole range of scenario creation methods, including the dynamic [[:/resilients/from_pan_to_panarchy|panarchy]] and [[:/resilients/temporal model]]. |
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| | <html><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/8480321093/" title="figure5 by _foam, on Flickr"><img src="https://farm9.staticflickr.com/8505/8480321093_4d0379e220_c.jpg" width="800" height="354" alt="figure5"></a></html> |
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| More methods are described in the Futures Research Methodologies [[http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&ved=0CDIQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cgee.org.br%2Fatividades%2FredirKori%2F3310&ei=R9n9UqixEIrmkAXymIDoBA&usg=AFQjCNGaA2QdNlSF3_6roa_YCSR0ez29SA&sig2=GEyGJ_CH5qo-INVR4kz0XQ&bvm=bv.61190604,d.dGI|chapter 13]] by Jerome C. Glenn and The Futures Group International. | More methods are described in the Futures Research Methodologies [[http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&ved=0CDIQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cgee.org.br%2Fatividades%2FredirKori%2F3310&ei=R9n9UqixEIrmkAXymIDoBA&usg=AFQjCNGaA2QdNlSF3_6roa_YCSR0ez29SA&sig2=GEyGJ_CH5qo-INVR4kz0XQ&bvm=bv.61190604,d.dGI|chapter 13]] by Jerome C. Glenn and The Futures Group International. |
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| | Finally, an interesting avenue to explore are remote scenario planning workshops using various online collaboration tools. Jamais Cascio describes [[http://www.openthefuture.com/2007/01/the_virtual_workshop_or_how_to.html|here]] how he conducted a virtual scenario workshop, Noah Raford describes another [[http://noahraford.com/?p=414|experiment]] in [[http://news.noahraford.com/?p=650|online scenario planning]]. |
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| * Interviews, questionnaires for participants beforehand | * Interviews, questionnaires for participants beforehand |
| * Collective horizon scanning (facilitators, participants) | * Collective horizon scanning (facilitators, participants) |
| | * Insight meditation |
| * ... | * ... |
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| * [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Questions_%28game%29|questions game]] | * [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Questions_%28game%29|questions game]] |
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| //How can we encourage an 'inquiring state of mind'?// | Questions encourage an [[inquiring mind]] |
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| Why does it seem more difficult to phrase questions rather than stating problems? | Why does it seem more difficult to phrase questions rather than stating problems? |
| //What does a 'futurism without prediction' look like?// | //What does a 'futurism without prediction' look like?// |
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| | A few ideas on [[non_predictive_strategy]] |
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| //When does it help to talk about things that are fixed, or constraints that exist?// | //When does it help to talk about things that are fixed, or constraints that exist?// |
| //What are different ways to visualise and cluster the relationships between key factors// | //What are different ways to visualise and cluster the relationships between key factors// |
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| * Affinity diagram | * [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affinity_diagram|Affinity diagram]] |
| | * [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cluster_diagram|Cluster diagram]] |
| * [[http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newTED_06.htm|Force Field Analysis by Kurt Lewin]], where the key question is placed in the middle, forces exerting pressure for the change on the left, and against the change on the right. | * [[http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newTED_06.htm|Force Field Analysis by Kurt Lewin]], where the key question is placed in the middle, forces exerting pressure for the change on the left, and against the change on the right. |
| * "interrogate anomalies: data or incidents that seem anomalous - that somehow “don’t fit”, seem weird or don’t make sense, should receive immediate attention. They could be pointers to a shift in the system as a whole" From: http://silberzahnjones.com/2012/10/04/crafting-non-linear-strategy-the-nature-of-the-problem/#more-799 | * "interrogate anomalies: data or incidents that seem anomalous - that somehow “don’t fit”, seem weird or don’t make sense, should receive immediate attention. They could be pointers to a shift in the system as a whole" From: http://silberzahnjones.com/2012/10/04/crafting-non-linear-strategy-the-nature-of-the-problem/#more-799 |
| * See various methods on the [[horizon scanning]] page | * See various methods on the [[horizon scanning]] page |
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| * should we make our own STEEP (or related) cards to avoid the 'business bias'? | * should we make our own STEEP (or related) cards to avoid the 'business bias'? probably, if we have the time - and focus on long term trends only + add wild cards (random images/words/tarot/playing cards...) |
| * are there other well understood methods to group trends other than the customary STEEP (in which cultural changes seem to be clumped in with social or political)? | * are there other well understood methods to group trends other than the customary STEEP (in which cultural changes seem to be clumped in with social or political)? see [[horizon scanning]] |
| * is there another way to look at large scale changes aside from trends (without having to do a PhD in each of the changes)? | * is there another way to look at large scale changes aside from trends (without having to do a PhD in each of the changes)? |
| * how effective are these methods and how can we usefully evalute them? | * how effective are these methods and how can we usefully evalute them? |
| ==== Ranking critical uncertainties ==== | ==== Ranking critical uncertainties ==== |
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| * what are different ways in which this is done by others? | * what are different ways in which this is done by others? most approaches i could find use numbers, or conversation. |
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| * [[http://www.swemorph.com/ma.html|Morphological Analysis]] could be a great way to work with a large number of clustered drivers, that can be combined in different ways to select a smaller set of important and/or quickly create basic scenario skeletons. The foodprints ruler from FoAM Nordica works on a similar principle. | * [[http://www.swemorph.com/ma.html|Morphological Analysis]] could be a great way to work with a large number of clustered drivers, that can be combined in different ways to select a smaller set of important and/or quickly create basic scenario skeletons. The foodprints ruler from FoAM Nordica works on a similar principle. |
| * __Cone of plausibility__ method: offers a more deterministic model of the way in which drivers lead to outcomes, by explicitly listing assumptions and how these might change. Of the three techniques, this approach is most suitable for shorter-term time horizons (e.g. a few months to 2-3 years), but can be used to explore longer-term time horizons. It also suits contexts with a limited number of important drivers.[[http://www.eisf.eu/resources/download.asp?d=5764|The Horizon Scanning Centre (pdf)]] | * __Cone of plausibility__ method: offers a more deterministic model of the way in which drivers lead to outcomes, by explicitly listing assumptions and how these might change. Of the three techniques, this approach is most suitable for shorter-term time horizons (e.g. a few months to 2-3 years), but can be used to explore longer-term time horizons. It also suits contexts with a limited number of important drivers.[[http://www.eisf.eu/resources/download.asp?d=5764|The Horizon Scanning Centre (pdf)]] |
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| * [[http://www.swemorph.com/ma.html|Morphological Analysis]] could be a great way to work with a large number of clustered drivers, that can be combined in different ways to select a smaller set of important and/or quickly create basic scenario skeletons. The foodprints ruler from FoAM Nordica works on a similar principle. | * [[Morphological Analysis]] could be a great way to work with a large number of clustered drivers, that can be combined in different ways to select a smaller set of important and/or quickly create basic scenario skeletons. The foodprints ruler from FoAM Nordica works on a similar principle. " |
| | * More on [[Field Anomaly Relaxation]] |
| * [[http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/2000/PDFs/ducz124p.pdf|Field Anomaly Relaxation]] | |
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| | (After reading several papers about MA/FAR, I wonder what is the difference between MA and FAR?) |
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| //How to better structure building scenario skeletons with guiding questions (which questions could be generalised)?// | //How to better structure building scenario skeletons with guiding questions (which questions could be generalised)?// |
| ==== From scenarios to story-worlds ==== | ==== From scenarios to story-worlds ==== |
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| * what techniques can we use to flesh out the scenarios into interesting stories | * what techniques can we use to flesh out the scenarios into interesting stories? |
| * what elements do we need in a scenario database? | * [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backstory|Backstory]] |
| * how to create rich characters and meaningful plots? | * [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flash_fiction|Flash Fiction]] |
| | * "a day in the life of..." (a character in a scenario, or one character in different scenarios) |
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| ==== Retrocasting ==== | ==== Retrocasting ==== |
| ==== Visualising ==== | ==== Visualising ==== |
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| * which methods could we use to visualise possible futures? | //Which methods could we use to visualise scenarios?// |
| | * moodboards |
| | * collages |
| | * storyboard |
| | * newspaper with headlines |
| | * video mix |
| | * [[|https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pinterest|pinterest board]] (or similar collective online pinboard) |
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| ==== Prototyping ==== | ==== Prototyping ==== |
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| * which methods could we use to prototype possible futures? | * which methods could we use to prototype possible futures? |
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| | More on [[possible_futures_parallel_presents]] and [[experiential futures]] |
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| ==== Prehearsals ==== | ==== Prehearsals ==== |
| * how to host them? | * how to host them? |
| * how to evaluate them? | * how to evaluate them? |
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| | continue research on [[prehearsal methods]] |
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| ==== Follow-up ==== | ==== Follow-up ==== |
| * How can we follow-up what happens to the groups after we finish the workshops (especially to understand what happens to commitments to actions and preferred possible futures)? | * How can we follow-up what happens to the groups after we finish the workshops (especially to understand what happens to commitments to actions and preferred possible futures)? |
| * How much do we need to be involved in the follow-up? | * How much do we need to be involved in the follow-up? |
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| | ==== Futures research methods ==== |
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| | <html><a href=https://www.emeraldinsight.com/content_images/fig/2730080303002.png"><img src="https://www.emeraldinsight.com/content_images/fig/2730080303002.png"></a></html> |
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| | <html><a href=https://www.emeraldinsight.com/content_images/fig/2730120202001.png"><img src="https://www.emeraldinsight.com/content_images/fig/2730120202001.png"></a></html> |
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| | From: [[https://www.emeraldinsight.com/journals.htm?articleid=1558553&show=html|Identifying systems' new initial conditions as influence points for the future]] |
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nik