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future_fabulators:scenario_methods [2014-02-18 05:28] – [Scenarios] maja | future_fabulators:scenario_methods [2014-02-19 05:50] – [Scenario Methods] maja | ||
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More methods are described in the Futures Research Methodologies [[http:// | More methods are described in the Futures Research Methodologies [[http:// | ||
+ | Finally, an interesting avenue to explore are remote scenario planning workshops using various online collaboration tools. Jamais Cascio describes [[http:// | ||
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* Interviews, questionnaires for participants beforehand | * Interviews, questionnaires for participants beforehand | ||
* Collective horizon scanning (facilitators, | * Collective horizon scanning (facilitators, | ||
+ | * Insight meditation | ||
* ... | * ... | ||
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* [[https:// | * [[https:// | ||
- | //How can we encourage an 'inquiring | + | Questions |
Why does it seem more difficult to phrase questions rather than stating problems? | Why does it seem more difficult to phrase questions rather than stating problems? | ||
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//What does a ' | //What does a ' | ||
- | + | A few ideas on [[non_predictive_strategy]] | |
//When does it help to talk about things that are fixed, or constraints that exist?// | //When does it help to talk about things that are fixed, or constraints that exist?// | ||
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//What are different ways to visualise and cluster the relationships between key factors// | //What are different ways to visualise and cluster the relationships between key factors// | ||
- | * Affinity diagram | + | * [[https:// |
+ | * [[https:// | ||
* [[http:// | * [[http:// | ||
* " | * " | ||
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* See various methods on the [[horizon scanning]] page | * See various methods on the [[horizon scanning]] page | ||
- | * should we make our own STEEP (or related) cards to avoid the ' | + | * should we make our own STEEP (or related) cards to avoid the ' |
- | * are there other well understood methods to group trends other than the customary STEEP (in which cultural changes seem to be clumped in with social or political)? | + | * are there other well understood methods to group trends other than the customary STEEP (in which cultural changes seem to be clumped in with social or political)? |
* is there another way to look at large scale changes aside from trends (without having to do a PhD in each of the changes)? | * is there another way to look at large scale changes aside from trends (without having to do a PhD in each of the changes)? | ||
* how effective are these methods and how can we usefully evalute them? | * how effective are these methods and how can we usefully evalute them? | ||
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==== Ranking critical uncertainties ==== | ==== Ranking critical uncertainties ==== | ||
- | * what are different ways in which this is done by others? | + | * what are different ways in which this is done by others? |
* [[http:// | * [[http:// | ||
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* __Cone of plausibility__ method: offers a more deterministic model of the way in which drivers lead to outcomes, by explicitly listing assumptions and how these might change. Of the three techniques, this approach is most suitable for shorter-term time horizons (e.g. a few months to 2-3 years), but can be used to explore longer-term time horizons. It also suits contexts with a limited number of important drivers.[[http:// | * __Cone of plausibility__ method: offers a more deterministic model of the way in which drivers lead to outcomes, by explicitly listing assumptions and how these might change. Of the three techniques, this approach is most suitable for shorter-term time horizons (e.g. a few months to 2-3 years), but can be used to explore longer-term time horizons. It also suits contexts with a limited number of important drivers.[[http:// | ||
| | ||
- | * [[http:// | + | * [[Morphological Analysis]] could be a great way to work with a large number of clustered drivers, that can be combined in different ways to select a smaller set of important and/or quickly create basic scenario skeletons. The foodprints ruler from FoAM Nordica works on a similar principle. |
* More on [[Field Anomaly Relaxation]] | * More on [[Field Anomaly Relaxation]] | ||
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+ | (After reading several papers about MA/FAR, I wonder what is the difference between MA and FAR?) | ||
//How to better structure building scenario skeletons with guiding questions (which questions could be generalised)?// | //How to better structure building scenario skeletons with guiding questions (which questions could be generalised)?// | ||
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==== From scenarios to story-worlds ==== | ==== From scenarios to story-worlds ==== | ||
- | * what techniques can we use to flesh out the scenarios into interesting stories | + | * what techniques can we use to flesh out the scenarios into interesting stories? |
- | * what elements do we need in a scenario | + | * [[https:// |
- | * how to create rich characters and meaningful plots? | + | * [[https:// |
+ | * "a day in the life of..." (a character | ||
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==== Retrocasting ==== | ==== Retrocasting ==== | ||
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==== Visualising ==== | ==== Visualising ==== | ||
- | * which methods could we use to visualise | + | // |
+ | * moodboards | ||
+ | * collages | ||
+ | * storyboard | ||
+ | * newspaper with headlines | ||
+ | * video mix | ||
+ | * [[|https:// | ||
==== Prototyping ==== | ==== Prototyping ==== | ||
* which methods could we use to prototype possible futures? | * which methods could we use to prototype possible futures? | ||
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+ | More on [[possible_futures_parallel_presents]] and [[experiential futurism]] | ||
==== Prehearsals ==== | ==== Prehearsals ==== | ||
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* how to host them? | * how to host them? | ||
* how to evaluate them? | * how to evaluate them? | ||
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+ | continue research on [[prehearsal methods]] | ||
==== Follow-up ==== | ==== Follow-up ==== | ||
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* How can we follow-up what happens to the groups after we finish the workshops (especially to understand what happens to commitments to actions and preferred possible futures)? | * How can we follow-up what happens to the groups after we finish the workshops (especially to understand what happens to commitments to actions and preferred possible futures)? | ||
* How much do we need to be involved in the follow-up? | * How much do we need to be involved in the follow-up? | ||
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+ | ==== Futures research methods ==== | ||
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+ | < | ||
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+ | < | ||
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+ | From: [[https:// | ||
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