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| future_fabulators:scenario_methods [2014-02-18 05:35] – maja | future_fabulators:scenario_methods [2014-02-19 01:12] – maja | ||
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| More methods are described in the Futures Research Methodologies [[http:// | More methods are described in the Futures Research Methodologies [[http:// | ||
| + | Finally, an interesting avenue to explore are remote scenario planning workshops using various online collaboration tools. Jamais Cascio describes [[http:// | ||
| Below we explore different elements of scenario building, ask questions that emerged from our practice and investigate methods that might be used to improve the process. | Below we explore different elements of scenario building, ask questions that emerged from our practice and investigate methods that might be used to improve the process. | ||
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| * __Cone of plausibility__ method: offers a more deterministic model of the way in which drivers lead to outcomes, by explicitly listing assumptions and how these might change. Of the three techniques, this approach is most suitable for shorter-term time horizons (e.g. a few months to 2-3 years), but can be used to explore longer-term time horizons. It also suits contexts with a limited number of important drivers.[[http:// | * __Cone of plausibility__ method: offers a more deterministic model of the way in which drivers lead to outcomes, by explicitly listing assumptions and how these might change. Of the three techniques, this approach is most suitable for shorter-term time horizons (e.g. a few months to 2-3 years), but can be used to explore longer-term time horizons. It also suits contexts with a limited number of important drivers.[[http:// | ||
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| - | * [[http:// | + | * [[Morphological Analysis]] could be a great way to work with a large number of clustered drivers, that can be combined in different ways to select a smaller set of important and/or quickly create basic scenario skeletons. The foodprints ruler from FoAM Nordica works on a similar principle. |
| * More on [[Field Anomaly Relaxation]] | * More on [[Field Anomaly Relaxation]] | ||
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| + | (After reading several papers about this, I wonder what is the difference between MA and FAR?-maja) | ||
| //How to better structure building scenario skeletons with guiding questions (which questions could be generalised)?// | //How to better structure building scenario skeletons with guiding questions (which questions could be generalised)?// | ||
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| < | < | ||
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| + | From: [[https:// | ||
nik