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future_fabulators:scenario_methods [2014-02-19 05:16] – majafuture_fabulators:scenario_methods [2014-02-19 05:44] – maja
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 //What does a 'futurism without prediction' look like?// //What does a 'futurism without prediction' look like?//
  
- +A few ideas on [[non_predictive_strategy]]
  
 //When does it help to talk about things that are fixed, or constraints that exist?// //When does it help to talk about things that are fixed, or constraints that exist?//
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 //What are different ways to visualise and cluster the relationships between key factors// //What are different ways to visualise and cluster the relationships between key factors//
  
-  * Affinity diagram+  * [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affinity_diagram|Affinity diagram]] 
 +  * [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cluster_diagram|Cluster diagram]]
   * [[http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newTED_06.htm|Force Field Analysis by Kurt Lewin]], where the key question is placed in the middle, forces exerting pressure for the change on the left, and against the change on the right.   * [[http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newTED_06.htm|Force Field Analysis by Kurt Lewin]], where the key question is placed in the middle, forces exerting pressure for the change on the left, and against the change on the right.
   * "interrogate anomalies:  data or incidents that seem anomalous - that somehow “don’t fit”, seem weird or don’t make sense, should receive immediate attention.  They could be pointers to a shift in the system as a whole" From: http://silberzahnjones.com/2012/10/04/crafting-non-linear-strategy-the-nature-of-the-problem/#more-799   * "interrogate anomalies:  data or incidents that seem anomalous - that somehow “don’t fit”, seem weird or don’t make sense, should receive immediate attention.  They could be pointers to a shift in the system as a whole" From: http://silberzahnjones.com/2012/10/04/crafting-non-linear-strategy-the-nature-of-the-problem/#more-799
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     * See various methods on the [[horizon scanning]] page     * See various methods on the [[horizon scanning]] page
    
-  * should we make our own STEEP (or related) cards to avoid the 'business bias'? +  * should we make our own STEEP (or related) cards to avoid the 'business bias'? probably, if we have the time - and focus on long term trends only + add wild cards (random images/words/tarot/playing cards...) 
-  * are there other well understood methods to group trends other than the customary STEEP (in which cultural changes seem to be clumped in with social or political)?+  * are there other well understood methods to group trends other than the customary STEEP (in which cultural changes seem to be clumped in with social or political)? see [[horizon scanning]]
   * is there another way to look at large scale changes aside from trends (without having to do a PhD in each of the changes)?   * is there another way to look at large scale changes aside from trends (without having to do a PhD in each of the changes)?
   * how effective are these methods and how can we usefully evalute them?   * how effective are these methods and how can we usefully evalute them?
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 ==== Ranking critical uncertainties ==== ==== Ranking critical uncertainties ====
  
-  * what are different ways in which this is done by others?+  * what are different ways in which this is done by others? most approaches i could find use numbers, or conversation.
  
   * [[http://www.swemorph.com/ma.html|Morphological Analysis]] could be a great way to work with a large number of clustered drivers, that can be combined in different ways to select a smaller set of important and/or quickly create basic scenario skeletons. The foodprints ruler from FoAM Nordica works on a similar principle.   * [[http://www.swemorph.com/ma.html|Morphological Analysis]] could be a great way to work with a large number of clustered drivers, that can be combined in different ways to select a smaller set of important and/or quickly create basic scenario skeletons. The foodprints ruler from FoAM Nordica works on a similar principle.
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   * [[Morphological Analysis]] could be a great way to work with a large number of clustered drivers, that can be combined in different ways to select a smaller set of important and/or quickly create basic scenario skeletons. The foodprints ruler from FoAM Nordica works on a similar principle. "   * [[Morphological Analysis]] could be a great way to work with a large number of clustered drivers, that can be combined in different ways to select a smaller set of important and/or quickly create basic scenario skeletons. The foodprints ruler from FoAM Nordica works on a similar principle. "
- 
   * More on [[Field Anomaly Relaxation]]   * More on [[Field Anomaly Relaxation]]
  
-(After reading several papers about this, I wonder what is the difference between MA and FAR?-maja)+(After reading several papers about MA/FAR, I wonder what is the difference between MA and FAR?)
  
 //How to better structure building scenario skeletons with guiding questions (which questions could be generalised)?// //How to better structure building scenario skeletons with guiding questions (which questions could be generalised)?//
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 ==== From scenarios to story-worlds ==== ==== From scenarios to story-worlds ====
  
-  * what techniques can we use to flesh out the scenarios into interesting stories +  * what techniques can we use to flesh out the scenarios into interesting stories?  
-  * what elements do we need in a scenario database? +    * [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backstory|Backstory]] 
-  * how to create rich characters and meaningful plots?+    * [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flash_fiction|Flash Fiction]] 
 +    * "a day in the life of..." (a character in a scenario, or one character in different scenarios) 
 + 
  
 ==== Retrocasting ==== ==== Retrocasting ====
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 ==== Visualising ==== ==== Visualising ====
  
-  * which methods could we use to visualise possible futures?+//Which methods could we use to visualise scenarios?// 
 +  * moodboards 
 +  * collages 
 +  * storyboard 
 +  * newspaper with headlines 
 +  * video mix 
 +  * [[|https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pinterest|pinterest board]] (or similar collective online pinboard)
  
 ==== Prototyping ==== ==== Prototyping ====
  
   * which methods could we use to prototype possible futures?   * which methods could we use to prototype possible futures?
 +
 +More on [[possible_futures_parallel_presents]] and [[experiential futurism]]
  
 ==== Prehearsals ==== ==== Prehearsals ====
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   * how to host them?   * how to host them?
   * how to evaluate them?   * how to evaluate them?
 +
 +continue research on [[prehearsal methods]]
  
 ==== Follow-up ==== ==== Follow-up ====
  • future_fabulators/scenario_methods.txt
  • Last modified: 2023-05-08 11:38
  • by nik