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future_fabulators:scenario_methods [2014-02-19 05:16] – majafuture_fabulators:scenario_methods [2014-02-19 07:23] – maja
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 An overview of the whole process written for novice scenario builders can be found in [[http://www.wired.com/wired/scenarios/build.html|How to Build Scenarios]] by Lawrence Wilkinson. Interesting [[http://www.openthefuture.com/2012/08/ten_rules_for_creating_awful_s.html| Ten Rules for Creating Awful Scenarios]] by Jamais Cascio, can be used as a checklist of what NOT to do in scenario building. An overview of the whole process written for novice scenario builders can be found in [[http://www.wired.com/wired/scenarios/build.html|How to Build Scenarios]] by Lawrence Wilkinson. Interesting [[http://www.openthefuture.com/2012/08/ten_rules_for_creating_awful_s.html| Ten Rules for Creating Awful Scenarios]] by Jamais Cascio, can be used as a checklist of what NOT to do in scenario building.
  
-There are many descriptions of scenario planning methods, with the biggest difference being whether the scenarios are designed to be exploratory (multiple alternative scenarios for different possible futures), or normative (designing a desired scenario, then figuring out what needs to be done in order to get there). When working with normative scenarios the most important task is 'backcasting' or 'retrocasting' as we prefer to call it (see chapter about this lower on this page). With exploratory scenarios a lot of the time is spent on creating the elements of the scenario based on the present of the internal and external environment, as well as forces that can influence change in both. Most scenario methods revolve around approximately the same phases: (1) delineating the space/issue/question (2) identifying elements of the scenario (factors, drivers, trends, measures, actors, events...) 3) selecting a reasonable amount of elements 4) projecting the elements in the given future in the form of multiple scenarios and 5) using scenarios to (re)design decisions, strategies and actions in the present. There are many different variations of scenario building flow. We list a few below:+There are many descriptions of scenario planning methods, with the biggest difference being whether the scenarios are designed to be exploratory (multiple alternative scenarios for different possible futures), or normative (designing a desired scenario, then figuring out what needs to be done in order to get there). When working with normative scenarios the most important task is 'backcasting' or 'retrocasting' as we prefer to call it (see chapter about this lower on this page). With exploratory scenarios a lot of the time is spent on creating the elements of the scenario based on the present of the internal and external environment, as well as forces that can influence change in both. Most scenario methods revolve around approximately the same phases: (1) delineating the space/issue/question (2) identifying elements of the scenario (factors, drivers, trends, measures, actors, events...) 3) selecting a reasonable amount of elements 4) projecting the elements in the given future in the form of multiple scenarios and 5) using scenarios to (re)design decisions, strategies and actions in the present. There are many different variations of scenario building flow.  
 + 
 +"Based on our review of the literature, we have discovered eight general categories (types) of scenario techniques with two to three variations for each type, resulting in more than two dozen techniques overall. There are, of course, variations of the variations. 
 + 
 +  - Judgment (genius forecasting, visualization, role playing, Coates and Jarratt) 
 +  - Baseline/expected (trend extrapolation, Manoa, systems scenarios, trend impact analysis) 
 +  - Elaboration of fixed scenarios (incasting, SRI) 
 +  - Event sequences (probability trees, sociovision, divergence mapping) 
 +  - Backcasting (horizon mission methodology, Impact of Future Technologies, future mapping) 
 +  - Dimensions of uncertainty (morphological analysis, field anomaly relaxation, GBN, MORPHOL, OS/SE) 
 +  - Cross-impact analysis (SMIC PROF-EXPERT, IFS) 
 +  - Modeling (trend impact analysis, sensitivity analysis, dynamic scenarios) 
 + 
 +From [[http://www.universitiesuk.ac.uk/aboutus/whatwedo/PolicyAnalysis/UKHigherEducation/Futures/Documents/current_state_of_scenario_development_FORESIGHT.pdf|The current state of scenario development]] by Peter Bishop, Andy Hines and Terry Collins 
 + 
 +A few techniques more in detail:
  
 Joseph Coates wrote "Today the question of what scenarios are is unclear except with regard to one point-they have become extremely popular. Many people see scenarios as forecasts of some future condition while others disavow that their scenarios are forecasts. Yet looking at scenarios that do not come labeled as forecasts or non-forecasts. It is difficult to tell them apart. The purpose of the scenario is at a meta level, since the scenario usually does not speak for itself in terms of its purpose." [[http://www.josephcoates.com/pdf_files/232_Scenario_Planning.pdf|More in Scenario Planning]]. Another early in depth overview of [[http://legacy.library.ucsf.edu/tid/fhz95g00/pdf;jsessionid=D034F49912B794C5CCE293059B4BA299.tobacco03|How Companies Use Scenarios]] was written by Mandel and Wilson. Joseph Coates wrote "Today the question of what scenarios are is unclear except with regard to one point-they have become extremely popular. Many people see scenarios as forecasts of some future condition while others disavow that their scenarios are forecasts. Yet looking at scenarios that do not come labeled as forecasts or non-forecasts. It is difficult to tell them apart. The purpose of the scenario is at a meta level, since the scenario usually does not speak for itself in terms of its purpose." [[http://www.josephcoates.com/pdf_files/232_Scenario_Planning.pdf|More in Scenario Planning]]. Another early in depth overview of [[http://legacy.library.ucsf.edu/tid/fhz95g00/pdf;jsessionid=D034F49912B794C5CCE293059B4BA299.tobacco03|How Companies Use Scenarios]] was written by Mandel and Wilson.
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 <html><a href=https://gs1.wac.edgecastcdn.net/8019B6/data.tumblr.com/tumblr_m8wsufwhnz1qz8vtso1_1280.jpg"><img src="https://gs1.wac.edgecastcdn.net/8019B6/data.tumblr.com/tumblr_m8wsufwhnz1qz8vtso1_1280.jpg"></a></html> <html><a href=https://gs1.wac.edgecastcdn.net/8019B6/data.tumblr.com/tumblr_m8wsufwhnz1qz8vtso1_1280.jpg"><img src="https://gs1.wac.edgecastcdn.net/8019B6/data.tumblr.com/tumblr_m8wsufwhnz1qz8vtso1_1280.jpg"></a></html>
 +
 +[[Morphological Analysis]] is a way to create one normative scenario, from which a number of critical uncertainties are selected and given a set of variables; by combining different variables several 'worlds' can be created, as stepping stones for a smaller set of branching scenario timelines. See also [[Field Anomaly Relaxation]].
 +
 +<html><a href=http://www.swemorph.com/graphics/z_box2.png"><img src="http://www.swemorph.com/graphics/z_box2.png"></a></html>
 +
 +
  
 Anna Maria Orru and David Relan wrote [[:/resilients/scenario_symphony|The Scenario Symphony]] for the Resilients project, containing a whole range of scenario creation methods, including the dynamic [[:/resilients/from_pan_to_panarchy|panarchy]] and [[:/resilients/temporal model]]. Anna Maria Orru and David Relan wrote [[:/resilients/scenario_symphony|The Scenario Symphony]] for the Resilients project, containing a whole range of scenario creation methods, including the dynamic [[:/resilients/from_pan_to_panarchy|panarchy]] and [[:/resilients/temporal model]].
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 Finally, an interesting avenue to explore are remote scenario planning workshops using various online collaboration tools. Jamais Cascio describes [[http://www.openthefuture.com/2007/01/the_virtual_workshop_or_how_to.html|here]] how he conducted a virtual scenario workshop, Noah Raford describes another [[http://noahraford.com/?p=414|experiment]] in [[http://news.noahraford.com/?p=650|online scenario planning]]. Finally, an interesting avenue to explore are remote scenario planning workshops using various online collaboration tools. Jamais Cascio describes [[http://www.openthefuture.com/2007/01/the_virtual_workshop_or_how_to.html|here]] how he conducted a virtual scenario workshop, Noah Raford describes another [[http://noahraford.com/?p=414|experiment]] in [[http://news.noahraford.com/?p=650|online scenario planning]].
  
-Below we explore different elements of scenario building, ask questions that emerged from our practice and investigate methods that might be used to improve the process.+ 
 +==== Analysis, Summaries and comparisons==== 
 + 
 +Using four different scenario building methods: the 2x2 matrix approach; causal layered analysis; the Manoa approach; and the scenario archetypes approach. "This exploratory comparison confirmed that different scenario generation methods yield not only different narratives and insights, but qualitatively different participant experiences. " 
 + 
 +Curry, Andrew and Wendy Schultz (2009), “Roads Less Travelled,” Journal of Futures Studies, Vol. 13(4). http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/13-4/AE03.pdf 
 + 
 + 
 +"The paper to review all the techniques for developing scenarios that have appeared in the literature, along with comments on their utility, strengths and weaknesses. [...] eight categories of techniques that include a total of 23 variations used to develop scenarios. There are descriptions and evaluations for each." 
 + 
 +Bishop, Peter, Andy Hines and Terry Collins (2007), “The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques,” Foresight, Vol. 9(1). 
 +http://www.universitiesuk.ac.uk/aboutus/whatwedo/PolicyAnalysis/UKHigherEducation/Futures/Documents/current_state_of_scenario_development_FORESIGHT.pdf 
 + 
 + 
 + 
 + 
 +===== Scenario Building Components ==== 
 + 
 + 
 +Below we explore different elements of scenario building based on the method developed by Peter Schwartz and ask questions that emerged from our practice and investigate methods that might be used to improve the process.
  
    
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 //What does a 'futurism without prediction' look like?// //What does a 'futurism without prediction' look like?//
  
- +A few ideas on [[non_predictive_strategy]]
  
 //When does it help to talk about things that are fixed, or constraints that exist?// //When does it help to talk about things that are fixed, or constraints that exist?//
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 //What are different ways to visualise and cluster the relationships between key factors// //What are different ways to visualise and cluster the relationships between key factors//
  
-  * Affinity diagram+  * [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affinity_diagram|Affinity diagram]] 
 +  * [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cluster_diagram|Cluster diagram]]
   * [[http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newTED_06.htm|Force Field Analysis by Kurt Lewin]], where the key question is placed in the middle, forces exerting pressure for the change on the left, and against the change on the right.   * [[http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newTED_06.htm|Force Field Analysis by Kurt Lewin]], where the key question is placed in the middle, forces exerting pressure for the change on the left, and against the change on the right.
   * "interrogate anomalies:  data or incidents that seem anomalous - that somehow “don’t fit”, seem weird or don’t make sense, should receive immediate attention.  They could be pointers to a shift in the system as a whole" From: http://silberzahnjones.com/2012/10/04/crafting-non-linear-strategy-the-nature-of-the-problem/#more-799   * "interrogate anomalies:  data or incidents that seem anomalous - that somehow “don’t fit”, seem weird or don’t make sense, should receive immediate attention.  They could be pointers to a shift in the system as a whole" From: http://silberzahnjones.com/2012/10/04/crafting-non-linear-strategy-the-nature-of-the-problem/#more-799
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     * See various methods on the [[horizon scanning]] page     * See various methods on the [[horizon scanning]] page
    
-  * should we make our own STEEP (or related) cards to avoid the 'business bias'? +  * should we make our own STEEP (or related) cards to avoid the 'business bias'? probably, if we have the time - and focus on long term trends only + add wild cards (random images/words/tarot/playing cards...) 
-  * are there other well understood methods to group trends other than the customary STEEP (in which cultural changes seem to be clumped in with social or political)?+  * are there other well understood methods to group trends other than the customary STEEP (in which cultural changes seem to be clumped in with social or political)? see [[horizon scanning]]
   * is there another way to look at large scale changes aside from trends (without having to do a PhD in each of the changes)?   * is there another way to look at large scale changes aside from trends (without having to do a PhD in each of the changes)?
   * how effective are these methods and how can we usefully evalute them?   * how effective are these methods and how can we usefully evalute them?
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 ==== Ranking critical uncertainties ==== ==== Ranking critical uncertainties ====
  
-  * what are different ways in which this is done by others?+  * what are different ways in which this is done by others? most approaches i could find use numbers, or conversation.
  
   * [[http://www.swemorph.com/ma.html|Morphological Analysis]] could be a great way to work with a large number of clustered drivers, that can be combined in different ways to select a smaller set of important and/or quickly create basic scenario skeletons. The foodprints ruler from FoAM Nordica works on a similar principle.   * [[http://www.swemorph.com/ma.html|Morphological Analysis]] could be a great way to work with a large number of clustered drivers, that can be combined in different ways to select a smaller set of important and/or quickly create basic scenario skeletons. The foodprints ruler from FoAM Nordica works on a similar principle.
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   * __Branch analysis method__: The ‘branch analysis’ method is suited to developing scenarios around specific turning-points that are known in advance (e.g. elections, a referendum or peace process). This approach works best for a shorter time horizon: generally up to five years.[[http://www.eisf.eu/resources/download.asp?d=5764|The Horizon Scanning Centre (pdf)]]   * __Branch analysis method__: The ‘branch analysis’ method is suited to developing scenarios around specific turning-points that are known in advance (e.g. elections, a referendum or peace process). This approach works best for a shorter time horizon: generally up to five years.[[http://www.eisf.eu/resources/download.asp?d=5764|The Horizon Scanning Centre (pdf)]]
   * __Cone of plausibility__ method: offers a more deterministic model of the way in which drivers lead to outcomes, by explicitly listing assumptions and how these might change. Of the three techniques, this approach is most suitable for shorter-term time horizons (e.g. a few months to 2-3 years), but can be used to explore longer-term time horizons. It also suits contexts with a limited number of important drivers.[[http://www.eisf.eu/resources/download.asp?d=5764|The Horizon Scanning Centre (pdf)]]   * __Cone of plausibility__ method: offers a more deterministic model of the way in which drivers lead to outcomes, by explicitly listing assumptions and how these might change. Of the three techniques, this approach is most suitable for shorter-term time horizons (e.g. a few months to 2-3 years), but can be used to explore longer-term time horizons. It also suits contexts with a limited number of important drivers.[[http://www.eisf.eu/resources/download.asp?d=5764|The Horizon Scanning Centre (pdf)]]
-   
-  * [[Morphological Analysis]] could be a great way to work with a large number of clustered drivers, that can be combined in different ways to select a smaller set of important and/or quickly create basic scenario skeletons. The foodprints ruler from FoAM Nordica works on a similar principle. " 
  
-  * More on [[Field Anomaly Relaxation]] 
- 
-(After reading several papers about this, I wonder what is the difference between MA and FAR?-maja) 
  
 //How to better structure building scenario skeletons with guiding questions (which questions could be generalised)?// //How to better structure building scenario skeletons with guiding questions (which questions could be generalised)?//
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 ==== From scenarios to story-worlds ==== ==== From scenarios to story-worlds ====
  
-  * what techniques can we use to flesh out the scenarios into interesting stories +  * what techniques can we use to flesh out the scenarios into interesting stories?  
-  * what elements do we need in a scenario database? +    * [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backstory|Backstory]] 
-  * how to create rich characters and meaningful plots?+    * [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flash_fiction|Flash Fiction]] 
 +    * "a day in the life of..." (a character in a scenario, or one character in different scenarios) 
 + 
  
 ==== Retrocasting ==== ==== Retrocasting ====
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 ==== Visualising ==== ==== Visualising ====
  
-  * which methods could we use to visualise possible futures?+//Which methods could we use to visualise scenarios?// 
 +  * moodboards 
 +  * collages 
 +  * storyboard 
 +  * newspaper with headlines 
 +  * video mix 
 +  * [[|https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pinterest|pinterest board]] (or similar collective online pinboard)
  
 ==== Prototyping ==== ==== Prototyping ====
  
   * which methods could we use to prototype possible futures?   * which methods could we use to prototype possible futures?
 +
 +More on [[possible_futures_parallel_presents]] and [[experiential futures]]
  
 ==== Prehearsals ==== ==== Prehearsals ====
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   * how to host them?   * how to host them?
   * how to evaluate them?   * how to evaluate them?
 +
 +continue research on [[prehearsal methods]]
  
 ==== Follow-up ==== ==== Follow-up ====
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 From: [[https://www.emeraldinsight.com/journals.htm?articleid=1558553&show=html|Identifying systems' new initial conditions as influence points for the future]] From: [[https://www.emeraldinsight.com/journals.htm?articleid=1558553&show=html|Identifying systems' new initial conditions as influence points for the future]]
 +
 +{{:future_fabulators:screen_shot_2014-02-19_at_17.04.07.png?nolink}}
 +
 +Mapping scenarios techniques. (Source: Andrew Curry)
  
  
  • future_fabulators/scenario_methods.txt
  • Last modified: 2023-05-08 11:38
  • by nik