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--- future_fabulators:scenario_methods [2014-02-19 05:57] – nik
+++ future_fabulators:scenario_methods [2014-02-19 06:54] – [Analysis, Summaries and comparisons] maja
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+[[Morphological Analysis]] is a way to create one normative scenario, from which a number of critical uncertainties are selected and given a set of variables; by combining different variables several 'worlds' can be created, as stepping stones for a smaller set of branching scenario timelines. See also [[Field Anomaly Relaxation]].
+<html><a href=http://www.swemorph.com/graphics/z_box2.png"><img src="http://www.swemorph.com/graphics/z_box2.png"></a></html>
 Anna Maria Orru and David Relan wrote [[:/resilients/scenario_symphony|The Scenario Symphony]] for the Resilients project, containing a whole range of scenario creation methods, including the dynamic [[:/resilients/from_pan_to_panarchy|panarchy]] and [[:/resilients/temporal model]].
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+==== Analysis, Summaries and comparisons====
+Using four different scenario building methods: the 2x2 matrix approach; causal layered analysis; the Manoa approach; and the scenario archetypes approach. "This exploratory comparison confirmed that different scenario generation methods yield not only different narratives and insights, but qualitatively different participant experiences. "
+Curry, Andrew and Wendy Schultz (2009), “Roads Less Travelled,” Journal of Futures Studies, Vol. 13(4). http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/13-4/AE03.pdf
+"The paper to review all the techniques for developing scenarios that have appeared in the literature, along with comments on their utility, strengths and weaknesses. [...] eight categories of techniques that include a total of 23 variations used to develop scenarios. There are descriptions and evaluations for each."
+Bishop, Peter, Andy Hines and Terry Collins (2007), “The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques,” Foresight, Vol. 9(1).
+http://www.universitiesuk.ac.uk/aboutus/whatwedo/PolicyAnalysis/UKHigherEducation/Futures/Documents/current_state_of_scenario_development_FORESIGHT.pdf
+===== Scenario Building Components ====
-Below we explore different elements of scenario building, ask questions that emerged from our practice and investigate methods that might be used to improve the process.
+Below we explore different elements of scenario building based on the method developed by Peter Schwartz and ask questions that emerged from our practice and investigate methods that might be used to improve the process.
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   * __Branch analysis method__: The ‘branch analysis’ method is suited to developing scenarios around specific turning-points that are known in advance (e.g. elections, a referendum or peace process). This approach works best for a shorter time horizon: generally up to five years.[[http://www.eisf.eu/resources/download.asp?d=5764|The Horizon Scanning Centre (pdf)]]
   * __Cone of plausibility__ method: offers a more deterministic model of the way in which drivers lead to outcomes, by explicitly listing assumptions and how these might change. Of the three techniques, this approach is most suitable for shorter-term time horizons (e.g. a few months to 2-3 years), but can be used to explore longer-term time horizons. It also suits contexts with a limited number of important drivers.[[http://www.eisf.eu/resources/download.asp?d=5764|The Horizon Scanning Centre (pdf)]]
-  * [[Morphological Analysis]] could be a great way to work with a large number of clustered drivers, that can be combined in different ways to select a smaller set of important and/or quickly create basic scenario skeletons. The foodprints ruler from FoAM Nordica works on a similar principle. "
-  * More on [[Field Anomaly Relaxation]]
-(After reading several papers about MA/FAR, I wonder what is the difference between MA and FAR?)
 //How to better structure building scenario skeletons with guiding questions (which questions could be generalised)?//
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 From: [[https://www.emeraldinsight.com/journals.htm?articleid=1558553&show=html|Identifying systems' new initial conditions as influence points for the future]]
-==== Analysis, Summaries and comparisons====
+{{:future_fabulators:screen_shot_2014-02-19_at_17.04.07.png?nolink}}
-Using four different scenario building methods: the 2x2 matrix approach; causal layered analysis; the Manoa approach; and the scenario archetypes approach. "This exploratory comparison confirmed that different scenario generation methods yield not only different narratives and insights, but qualitatively different participant experiences. "
-Curry, Andrew and Wendy Schultz (2009), “Roads Less Travelled,” Journal of Futures Studies, Vol. 13(4). http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/13-4/AE03.pdf
+Mapping scenarios techniques. (Source: Andrew Curry)