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--- future_fabulators:scenario_methods [2014-02-19 06:47] – [Scenarios] maja
+++ future_fabulators:scenario_methods [2014-02-19 06:54] – [Analysis, Summaries and comparisons] maja
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+[[Morphological Analysis]] is a way to create one normative scenario, from which a number of critical uncertainties are selected and given a set of variables; by combining different variables several 'worlds' can be created, as stepping stones for a smaller set of branching scenario timelines. See also [[Field Anomaly Relaxation]].
+<html><a href=http://www.swemorph.com/graphics/z_box2.png"><img src="http://www.swemorph.com/graphics/z_box2.png"></a></html>
 Anna Maria Orru and David Relan wrote [[:/resilients/scenario_symphony|The Scenario Symphony]] for the Resilients project, containing a whole range of scenario creation methods, including the dynamic [[:/resilients/from_pan_to_panarchy|panarchy]] and [[:/resilients/temporal model]].
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+==== Analysis, Summaries and comparisons====
+Using four different scenario building methods: the 2x2 matrix approach; causal layered analysis; the Manoa approach; and the scenario archetypes approach. "This exploratory comparison confirmed that different scenario generation methods yield not only different narratives and insights, but qualitatively different participant experiences. "
+Curry, Andrew and Wendy Schultz (2009), “Roads Less Travelled,” Journal of Futures Studies, Vol. 13(4). http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/13-4/AE03.pdf
+"The paper to review all the techniques for developing scenarios that have appeared in the literature, along with comments on their utility, strengths and weaknesses. [...] eight categories of techniques that include a total of 23 variations used to develop scenarios. There are descriptions and evaluations for each."
+Bishop, Peter, Andy Hines and Terry Collins (2007), “The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques,” Foresight, Vol. 9(1).
+http://www.universitiesuk.ac.uk/aboutus/whatwedo/PolicyAnalysis/UKHigherEducation/Futures/Documents/current_state_of_scenario_development_FORESIGHT.pdf
+===== Scenario Building Components ====
-Below we explore different elements of scenario building, ask questions that emerged from our practice and investigate methods that might be used to improve the process.
+Below we explore different elements of scenario building based on the method developed by Peter Schwartz and ask questions that emerged from our practice and investigate methods that might be used to improve the process.
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 Mapping scenarios techniques. (Source: Andrew Curry)
-==== Analysis, Summaries and comparisons====
-Using four different scenario building methods: the 2x2 matrix approach; causal layered analysis; the Manoa approach; and the scenario archetypes approach. "This exploratory comparison confirmed that different scenario generation methods yield not only different narratives and insights, but qualitatively different participant experiences. "
-Curry, Andrew and Wendy Schultz (2009), “Roads Less Travelled,” Journal of Futures Studies, Vol. 13(4). http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/13-4/AE03.pdf
-"The paper to review all the techniques for developing scenarios that have appeared in the literature, along with comments on their utility, strengths and weaknesses. [...] eight categories of techniques that include a total of 23 variations used to develop scenarios. There are descriptions and evaluations for each."
-Bishop, Peter, Andy Hines and Terry Collins (2007), “The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques,” Foresight, Vol. 9(1).
-http://www.universitiesuk.ac.uk/aboutus/whatwedo/PolicyAnalysis/UKHigherEducation/Futures/Documents/current_state_of_scenario_development_FORESIGHT.pdf
-"In my experience, scenario planning is an interpretive practice – it’s really closer to magic than technique. ... Look long enough, hard enough, and the pieces will fall into place. Magic is a very difficult thing – most people spend their whole life cutting magic out.” --Napier Collyns