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future_fabulators:scenario_methods [2014-02-26 05:41] – maja | future_fabulators:scenario_methods [2014-02-26 06:00] – maja | ||
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- Generating techniques: generation of ideas and collection of data (surveys, Delphi, workshops) | - Generating techniques: generation of ideas and collection of data (surveys, Delphi, workshops) | ||
- Integrating techniques: combining parts into wholes (time-series analysis, explanatory modelling, optimised modelling) | - Integrating techniques: combining parts into wholes (time-series analysis, explanatory modelling, optimised modelling) | ||
- | - Consistency techniques: checking the consistency of scenarios (cross impact analysis, morphological field analysis)</ | + | - Consistency techniques: checking the consistency of scenarios (cross impact analysis, morphological field analysis) |
+ | </ | ||
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< | < | ||
- | ==== Four Generic Futures | + | === Four Generic Futures === |
< | < | ||
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Dator discusses in length the process of creating four generic futures (Continue, Collapse, Discipline and Transform) - as four types of stories in which all/most future scenarios can be classified. | Dator discusses in length the process of creating four generic futures (Continue, Collapse, Discipline and Transform) - as four types of stories in which all/most future scenarios can be classified. | ||
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+ | < | ||
+ | 1) Continue: What are the ways in which the system in which we find ourselves could continue as it is? | ||
+ | 2) Collapse: What are the ways in which it could fall apart? | ||
+ | 3) Discipline: What are the ways in which it could be directed? | ||
+ | 4) Transform: What are the ways in which it could change altogether? | ||
+ | Phrased this way, each generic image of the future presents a challenge to test the boundaries of one’s expectations and understanding of the system. | ||
+ | </ | ||
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+ | From Stuart Candy in his disertation [[http:// | ||
=== Cone of Plausibility === | === Cone of Plausibility === | ||
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Backcasting starts with defining a desirable future and then works backwards to identify policies and programs that will connect the future to the present. | Backcasting starts with defining a desirable future and then works backwards to identify policies and programs that will connect the future to the present. | ||
- | However with retrocasting/ | + | However with retrocasting/ |