Differences
This shows you the differences between two versions of the page.
Both sides previous revision Previous revision | Next revisionBoth sides next revision | ||
future_fabulators:scenario_methods [2014-02-26 05:43] – [Four Generic Futures] maja | future_fabulators:scenario_methods [2014-02-26 06:00] – maja | ||
---|---|---|---|
Line 79: | Line 79: | ||
Dator discusses in length the process of creating four generic futures (Continue, Collapse, Discipline and Transform) - as four types of stories in which all/most future scenarios can be classified. | Dator discusses in length the process of creating four generic futures (Continue, Collapse, Discipline and Transform) - as four types of stories in which all/most future scenarios can be classified. | ||
+ | |||
+ | < | ||
+ | 1) Continue: What are the ways in which the system in which we find ourselves could continue as it is? | ||
+ | 2) Collapse: What are the ways in which it could fall apart? | ||
+ | 3) Discipline: What are the ways in which it could be directed? | ||
+ | 4) Transform: What are the ways in which it could change altogether? | ||
+ | Phrased this way, each generic image of the future presents a challenge to test the boundaries of one’s expectations and understanding of the system. | ||
+ | </ | ||
+ | |||
+ | From Stuart Candy in his disertation [[http:// | ||
=== Cone of Plausibility === | === Cone of Plausibility === | ||
Line 265: | Line 275: | ||
Backcasting starts with defining a desirable future and then works backwards to identify policies and programs that will connect the future to the present. | Backcasting starts with defining a desirable future and then works backwards to identify policies and programs that will connect the future to the present. | ||
- | However with retrocasting/ | + | However with retrocasting/ |