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===== Scenario Methods ===== | ===== Scenario Methods ===== | ||
- | This page is an evolving, non-exhaustive collection of different methods and techniques that can be used in scenario building, particularly focusing on the ones that might be useful for Future Fabulators. There are many academic papers and consultants' | + | This page is an evolving, non-exhaustive collection of different methods and techniques that can be used in scenario building, particularly focusing on the ones that might be useful for Future Fabulators. There are many academic papers and consultants' |
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+ | {{: | ||
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+ | Figure from [[Integral Scenario Development]] by Chris C Steward | ||
There are many different variations of scenario building flow, and we won't attempt to collect them all. Our filter is looking at approaches that can help us move from forecasting to embodiment, from story to experience. As in Ffab we are primarily focused on creating (immersive) situations where possible futures / parallel histories or presents can be physically experienced (and then reflecting on how this experience can affect our present behaviours), | There are many different variations of scenario building flow, and we won't attempt to collect them all. Our filter is looking at approaches that can help us move from forecasting to embodiment, from story to experience. As in Ffab we are primarily focused on creating (immersive) situations where possible futures / parallel histories or presents can be physically experienced (and then reflecting on how this experience can affect our present behaviours), | ||
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==== Methods, comparisons ==== | ==== Methods, comparisons ==== | ||
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- | ==== Plotting | + | ==== Plotting |
- | //What are different ways to map-out the present situation surrounding the key question?// | + | //What are different ways to map-out the past and present situation surrounding the key question?// |
* [[KPUU Framework]] | * [[KPUU Framework]] | ||
+ | * 6 root questions (identify variables) 2 holarchy questions (link variables), different POP questions (check variables) from [[integral scenario development]]: | ||
+ | * (Subject of focus): When? Who/What? + (Actors and factors relating to the subject of focus): Who? Why? What/How? Where? | ||
+ | * Who is internal to X (organisation, | ||
+ | * 'Have we sought out as many relevant perspectives as possible?' | ||
+ | * 'Have we actively sought to identify (surface, objectify) the perspectives/ | ||
+ | * 'Have we identified relationships among the different variables identified?' | ||
//When to use this step?// | //When to use this step?// | ||
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==== Scenarios ==== | ==== Scenarios ==== | ||
- | //When to use one, two, three or more axes// | + | //How to construct alternative future scenarios// |
* __Two axes method__: Scenarios generated using the ‘two axes’ process are illustrative rather than predictive; they tend to be high-level (although additional layers of detail can subsequently be added). They are particularly suited to testing medium to long-term policy direction, by ensuring that it is robust in a range of environments. Scenarios developed using this method tend to look out 10-20 years.[[http:// | * __Two axes method__: Scenarios generated using the ‘two axes’ process are illustrative rather than predictive; they tend to be high-level (although additional layers of detail can subsequently be added). They are particularly suited to testing medium to long-term policy direction, by ensuring that it is robust in a range of environments. Scenarios developed using this method tend to look out 10-20 years.[[http:// | ||
* __Branch analysis method__: The ‘branch analysis’ method is suited to developing scenarios around specific turning-points that are known in advance (e.g. elections, a referendum or peace process). This approach works best for a shorter time horizon: generally up to five years.[[http:// | * __Branch analysis method__: The ‘branch analysis’ method is suited to developing scenarios around specific turning-points that are known in advance (e.g. elections, a referendum or peace process). This approach works best for a shorter time horizon: generally up to five years.[[http:// | ||
* __Cone of plausibility__ method: offers a more deterministic model of the way in which drivers lead to outcomes, by explicitly listing assumptions and how these might change. Of the three techniques, this approach is most suitable for shorter-term time horizons (e.g. a few months to 2-3 years), but can be used to explore longer-term time horizons. It also suits contexts with a limited number of important drivers.[[http:// | * __Cone of plausibility__ method: offers a more deterministic model of the way in which drivers lead to outcomes, by explicitly listing assumptions and how these might change. Of the three techniques, this approach is most suitable for shorter-term time horizons (e.g. a few months to 2-3 years), but can be used to explore longer-term time horizons. It also suits contexts with a limited number of important drivers.[[http:// | ||
+ | * [[four generic futures]] by the Manoa School | ||
* CLA: probing deeper cultural foundations of core issues | * CLA: probing deeper cultural foundations of core issues | ||
* Manoa approach: "the scenarios it produces are generally much longer-term, | * Manoa approach: "the scenarios it produces are generally much longer-term, | ||
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//How to better structure building scenario skeletons with guiding questions (which questions could be generalised)?// | //How to better structure building scenario skeletons with guiding questions (which questions could be generalised)?// | ||
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+ | One suggestion (not sure about all of the focus on problems): | ||
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+ | < | ||
+ | A. General discussion of your future | ||
+ | * What will most people be doing in such a world? | ||
+ | * What economic problems that worry people now will be gone, or relatively minor? | ||
+ | * What environmental problems that worry people now will be gone, or relatively minor? | ||
+ | * What other problems that worry people now will be gone, or relatively minor? What new (economic, environmental, | ||
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+ | B. How probable (likely to actually occur) is the future described in your scenario? | ||
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+ | C. How preferable is the future described in your scenario? That is, how close is it to your own preferred future? | ||
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+ | D. To the extent the future described in your scenario is judged preferable by your group, what five things need to be done now to move towards those desirable aspects of that future? | ||
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+ | E. To the extent the future described in your scenario is judged undesirable by your group, what five things need to be done now to see that those undesirable aspects not occur? | ||
+ | </ | ||
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+ | From [[http:// | ||
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+ | Another suggestion (from [[integral scenario development]] by Christ C Stewart: | ||
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+ | * Apply 6 root questions (relating to factors and actors) and the AQAL framework (four quadrants by Wilber) to deepen the scenario stories | ||
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have a look at the CLA or the [[http:// | have a look at the CLA or the [[http:// |