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future_fabulators:scenario_methods [2014-03-04 06:23] – maja | future_fabulators:scenario_methods [2014-03-04 06:27] – maja | ||
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- Dimensions of uncertainty (morphological analysis, field anomaly relaxation, GBN, MORPHOL, OS/SE) | - Dimensions of uncertainty (morphological analysis, field anomaly relaxation, GBN, MORPHOL, OS/SE) | ||
- Cross-impact analysis (SMIC PROF-EXPERT, | - Cross-impact analysis (SMIC PROF-EXPERT, | ||
- | - Modeling (trend impact analysis, sensitivity analysis, dynamic scenarios) </ | + | - Modeling (trend impact analysis, sensitivity analysis, dynamic scenarios) |
+ | |||
+ | </ | ||
From [[http:// | From [[http:// | ||
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< | < | ||
- | 1) Continue: What are the ways in which the system in which we find ourselves could continue as it is? | + | 1) Continue: What are the ways in which the system in which we find ourselves could continue as it is?\\ |
- | 2) Collapse: What are the ways in which it could fall apart? | + | 2) Collapse: What are the ways in which it could fall apart?\\ |
- | 3) Discipline: What are the ways in which it could be directed? | + | 3) Discipline: What are the ways in which it could be directed?\\ |
- | 4) Transform: What are the ways in which it could change altogether? | + | 4) Transform: What are the ways in which it could change altogether?\\ |
Phrased this way, each generic image of the future presents a challenge to test the boundaries of one’s expectations and understanding of the system. | Phrased this way, each generic image of the future presents a challenge to test the boundaries of one’s expectations and understanding of the system. | ||
</ | </ |