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future_fabulators:scenario_methods [2014-03-04 06:23] majafuture_fabulators:scenario_methods [2014-03-04 06:27] maja
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   - Dimensions of uncertainty (morphological analysis, field anomaly relaxation, GBN, MORPHOL, OS/SE)   - Dimensions of uncertainty (morphological analysis, field anomaly relaxation, GBN, MORPHOL, OS/SE)
   - Cross-impact analysis (SMIC PROF-EXPERT, IFS)   - Cross-impact analysis (SMIC PROF-EXPERT, IFS)
-  - Modeling (trend impact analysis, sensitivity analysis, dynamic scenarios) </blockquote>+  - Modeling (trend impact analysis, sensitivity analysis, dynamic scenarios)  
 + 
 +</blockquote>
  
 From [[http://www.universitiesuk.ac.uk/aboutus/whatwedo/PolicyAnalysis/UKHigherEducation/Futures/Documents/current_state_of_scenario_development_FORESIGHT.pdf|The current state of scenario development]] by Peter Bishop, Andy Hines and Terry Collins, Foresight, Vol. 9(1)  From [[http://www.universitiesuk.ac.uk/aboutus/whatwedo/PolicyAnalysis/UKHigherEducation/Futures/Documents/current_state_of_scenario_development_FORESIGHT.pdf|The current state of scenario development]] by Peter Bishop, Andy Hines and Terry Collins, Foresight, Vol. 9(1) 
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 <blockquote> <blockquote>
-1) Continue: What are the ways in which the system in which we find ourselves could continue as it is? +1) Continue: What are the ways in which the system in which we find ourselves could continue as it is?\\ 
-2) Collapse: What are the ways in which it could fall apart? +2) Collapse: What are the ways in which it could fall apart?\\ 
-3) Discipline: What are the ways in which it could be directed? +3) Discipline: What are the ways in which it could be directed?\\ 
-4) Transform: What are the ways in which it could change altogether?+4) Transform: What are the ways in which it could change altogether?\\
 Phrased this way, each generic image of the future presents a challenge to test the boundaries of one’s expectations and understanding of the system. Phrased this way, each generic image of the future presents a challenge to test the boundaries of one’s expectations and understanding of the system.
 </blockquote> </blockquote>
  • future_fabulators/scenario_methods.txt
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