Differences

This shows you the differences between two versions of the page.

Link to this comparison view

Both sides previous revision Previous revision
Next revision		 Previous revision
Next revisionBoth sides next revision
future_fabulators:scenario_methods [2014-03-04 06:23] – majafuture_fabulators:scenario_methods [2014-03-04 06:29] – [Change Drivers & Weak Signals] maja
Line 26: Line 26:
   - Dimensions of uncertainty (morphological analysis, field anomaly relaxation, GBN, MORPHOL, OS/SE)   - Dimensions of uncertainty (morphological analysis, field anomaly relaxation, GBN, MORPHOL, OS/SE)
   - Cross-impact analysis (SMIC PROF-EXPERT, IFS)   - Cross-impact analysis (SMIC PROF-EXPERT, IFS)
-  - Modeling (trend impact analysis, sensitivity analysis, dynamic scenarios) </blockquote>+  - Modeling (trend impact analysis, sensitivity analysis, dynamic scenarios)  
 + 
 +</blockquote>
  
 From [[http://www.universitiesuk.ac.uk/aboutus/whatwedo/PolicyAnalysis/UKHigherEducation/Futures/Documents/current_state_of_scenario_development_FORESIGHT.pdf|The current state of scenario development]] by Peter Bishop, Andy Hines and Terry Collins, Foresight, Vol. 9(1)  From [[http://www.universitiesuk.ac.uk/aboutus/whatwedo/PolicyAnalysis/UKHigherEducation/Futures/Documents/current_state_of_scenario_development_FORESIGHT.pdf|The current state of scenario development]] by Peter Bishop, Andy Hines and Terry Collins, Foresight, Vol. 9(1) 
Line 94: Line 96:
  
 <blockquote> <blockquote>
-1) Continue: What are the ways in which the system in which we find ourselves could continue as it is? +1) Continue: What are the ways in which the system in which we find ourselves could continue as it is?\\ 
-2) Collapse: What are the ways in which it could fall apart? +2) Collapse: What are the ways in which it could fall apart?\\ 
-3) Discipline: What are the ways in which it could be directed? +3) Discipline: What are the ways in which it could be directed?\\ 
-4) Transform: What are the ways in which it could change altogether?+4) Transform: What are the ways in which it could change altogether?\\
 Phrased this way, each generic image of the future presents a challenge to test the boundaries of one’s expectations and understanding of the system. Phrased this way, each generic image of the future presents a challenge to test the boundaries of one’s expectations and understanding of the system.
 </blockquote> </blockquote>
Line 245: Line 247:
   * [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross_impact_analysis|Cross Impact Analysis]]   * [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross_impact_analysis|Cross Impact Analysis]]
   * [[http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CEQQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cgee.org.br%2Fatividades%2FredirKori%2F3302&ei=Hm0VU-ODBsSikQWQzICwDw&usg=AFQjCNGIGowNnzsRvhMCmohNKF986pAUGA&sig2=bz9QES3qcTR6pZXu4Lj6Mw&bvm=bv.62286460,d.dGI|Trend Impact Analysis]] (quantitative)   * [[http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CEQQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cgee.org.br%2Fatividades%2FredirKori%2F3302&ei=Hm0VU-ODBsSikQWQzICwDw&usg=AFQjCNGIGowNnzsRvhMCmohNKF986pAUGA&sig2=bz9QES3qcTR6pZXu4Lj6Mw&bvm=bv.62286460,d.dGI|Trend Impact Analysis]] (quantitative)
-  * [[morphological analysis]] [[field anomaly relaxation]]+  * [[morphological analysis]] and [[field anomaly relaxation]]
    
   * // should we make our own STEEP (or similar) cards to avoid the 'business bias'?// probably, if we have the time, perhaps something related to causal layered analysis or [[integral scenario development]] focus on long term trends only + add wild cards (random images/words/tarot/playing cards...).    * // should we make our own STEEP (or similar) cards to avoid the 'business bias'?// probably, if we have the time, perhaps something related to causal layered analysis or [[integral scenario development]] focus on long term trends only + add wild cards (random images/words/tarot/playing cards...). 
  • future_fabulators/scenario_methods.txt
  • Last modified: 2023-05-08 11:38
  • by nik