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future_fabulators:scenario_methods [2014-03-04 06:26] majafuture_fabulators:scenario_methods [2014-03-04 06:29] – [Change Drivers & Weak Signals] maja
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 <blockquote> <blockquote>
-1) Continue: What are the ways in which the system in which we find ourselves could continue as it is? +1) Continue: What are the ways in which the system in which we find ourselves could continue as it is?\\ 
-2) Collapse: What are the ways in which it could fall apart? +2) Collapse: What are the ways in which it could fall apart?\\ 
-3) Discipline: What are the ways in which it could be directed? +3) Discipline: What are the ways in which it could be directed?\\ 
-4) Transform: What are the ways in which it could change altogether?+4) Transform: What are the ways in which it could change altogether?\\
 Phrased this way, each generic image of the future presents a challenge to test the boundaries of one’s expectations and understanding of the system. Phrased this way, each generic image of the future presents a challenge to test the boundaries of one’s expectations and understanding of the system.
 </blockquote> </blockquote>
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   * [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross_impact_analysis|Cross Impact Analysis]]   * [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross_impact_analysis|Cross Impact Analysis]]
   * [[http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CEQQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cgee.org.br%2Fatividades%2FredirKori%2F3302&ei=Hm0VU-ODBsSikQWQzICwDw&usg=AFQjCNGIGowNnzsRvhMCmohNKF986pAUGA&sig2=bz9QES3qcTR6pZXu4Lj6Mw&bvm=bv.62286460,d.dGI|Trend Impact Analysis]] (quantitative)   * [[http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CEQQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cgee.org.br%2Fatividades%2FredirKori%2F3302&ei=Hm0VU-ODBsSikQWQzICwDw&usg=AFQjCNGIGowNnzsRvhMCmohNKF986pAUGA&sig2=bz9QES3qcTR6pZXu4Lj6Mw&bvm=bv.62286460,d.dGI|Trend Impact Analysis]] (quantitative)
-  * [[morphological analysis]] [[field anomaly relaxation]]+  * [[morphological analysis]] and [[field anomaly relaxation]]
    
   * // should we make our own STEEP (or similar) cards to avoid the 'business bias'?// probably, if we have the time, perhaps something related to causal layered analysis or [[integral scenario development]] focus on long term trends only + add wild cards (random images/words/tarot/playing cards...).    * // should we make our own STEEP (or similar) cards to avoid the 'business bias'?// probably, if we have the time, perhaps something related to causal layered analysis or [[integral scenario development]] focus on long term trends only + add wild cards (random images/words/tarot/playing cards...). 
  • future_fabulators/scenario_methods.txt
  • Last modified: 2023-05-08 11:38
  • by nik