| Both sides previous revision Previous revision Next revision | Previous revision Next revisionBoth sides next revision |
| future_fabulators:scenario_methods [2014-05-19 14:27] – [Scenario Methods] nik | future_fabulators:scenario_methods [2017-12-14 09:38] – 103.254.244.134 |
|---|
| ==== Methods, comparisons ==== | ==== Methods, comparisons ==== |
| |
| A simple description of a scenario building process can be found in [[http://www.wired.com/wired/scenarios/build.html|How to Build Scenarios]] by Lawrence Wilkinson. Interesting [[http://www.openthefuture.com/2012/08/ten_rules_for_creating_awful_s.html| Ten Rules for Creating Awful Scenarios]] by Jamais Cascio, can be used as a checklist of what NOT to do in scenario building. | A simple description of a scenario building process can be found in [[http://www.wired.com/wired/scenarios/build.html|How to Build Scenarios]] by Lawrence Wilkinson. An counter-prespective can be found in [[http://www.openthefuture.com/2012/08/ten_rules_for_creating_awful_s.html| Ten Rules for Creating Awful Scenarios]] by Jamais Cascio, which provides a checklist of what NOT to do when creating scenarios. |
| |
| <blockquote>The paper to review all the techniques for developing scenarios that have appeared in the literature, along with comments on their utility, strengths and weaknesses. (...) Based on our review of the literature, we have discovered eight general categories (types) of scenario techniques with two to three variations for each type, resulting in more than two dozen techniques overall. There are, of course, variations of the variations." | <blockquote>The paper to review all the techniques for developing scenarios that have appeared in the literature, along with comments on their utility, strengths and weaknesses. (...) Based on our review of the literature, we have discovered eight general categories (types) of scenario techniques with two to three variations for each type, resulting in more than two dozen techniques overall. There are, of course, variations of the variations." |
| * cluster into themes | * cluster into themes |
| * after reaching the bottom layer, pick a different myth/narrative and create a scenario by moving up the other layers, up to the new events and behaviours in 'litany' | * after reaching the bottom layer, pick a different myth/narrative and create a scenario by moving up the other layers, up to the new events and behaviours in 'litany' |
| | |
| | Image Credit: [[http://thinkingfutures.net|Thinking Futures]] |
| |
| === The Manoa Approach === | === The Manoa Approach === |
| [5] develop a summary metaphor or title \\ | [5] develop a summary metaphor or title \\ |
| |
| <html><a href="https://www.emeraldinsight.com/content_images/fig/2730110302004.png"><img src="https://www.emeraldinsight.com/content_images/fig/2730110302004.png" width="400"></a></html> <html><a href="http://www.mepss.nl/tools/w07-fig1.gif"><img src="http://www.mepss.nl/tools/w07-fig1.gif"></a></html> | <html><a href="https://www.emeraldinsight.com/content_images/fig/2730110302004.png"><img src="https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/3a/9b/40/3a9b40a34e245adbfac3d91b030afac4.jpg" width="400"></a></html> <html><a href="http://www.mepss.nl/tools/w07-fig1.gif"><img src="http://www.mepss.nl/tools/w07-fig1.gif"></a></html> |
| |
| === Four Generic Futures === | === Four Generic Futures === |
| * [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cluster_diagram|Cluster diagram]] | * [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cluster_diagram|Cluster diagram]] |
| * [[http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newTED_06.htm|Force Field Analysis by Kurt Lewin]], where the key question is placed in the middle, forces exerting pressure for the change on the left, and against the change on the right. | * [[http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newTED_06.htm|Force Field Analysis by Kurt Lewin]], where the key question is placed in the middle, forces exerting pressure for the change on the left, and against the change on the right. |
| | * *[[http://daniellock.com/force-field-analysis/|Force Field Analysis by Kurt Lewin]] |
| * "interrogate anomalies: data or incidents that seem anomalous - that somehow “don’t fit”, seem weird or don’t make sense, should receive immediate attention. They could be pointers to a shift in the system as a whole" From: http://silberzahnjones.com/2012/10/04/crafting-non-linear-strategy-the-nature-of-the-problem/#more-799 | * "interrogate anomalies: data or incidents that seem anomalous - that somehow “don’t fit”, seem weird or don’t make sense, should receive immediate attention. They could be pointers to a shift in the system as a whole" From: http://silberzahnjones.com/2012/10/04/crafting-non-linear-strategy-the-nature-of-the-problem/#more-799 |
| |
| |
| <html><a href="http://www.naturalstep.org/sites/all/files/Backcasting_AllBox.png"><img src="http://www.naturalstep.org/sites/all/files/Backcasting_AllBox.png" width="500"></a></html> | <html><a href="http://www.naturalstep.org/sites/all/files/Backcasting_AllBox.png"><img src="http://www.naturalstep.org/sites/all/files/Backcasting_AllBox.png" width="500"></a></html> |
| | |
| | Theory of change model is essentially backcasting for specific goals: http://www.theoryofchange.org/what-is-theory-of-change/ |
| |
| //what are important things to focus on?// | //what are important things to focus on?// |
| |
| * which methods could we use to prototype possible futures? | * which methods could we use to prototype possible futures? |
| | * [[http://ideodesign.com.au/images/uploads/news/pdfs/FultonSuriBuchenau-Experience_PrototypingACM_8-00.pdf|experience prototyping]] |
| * [[http://ideodesign.com.au/images/uploads/news/pdfs/FultonSuriBuchenau-Experience_PrototypingACM_8-00.pdf|experience prototyping]] | * rapid prototyping, fabbing |
| * rapid prototyping, fabbing | * paper, scissors and tape |
| * ... | * ... |
| |
| |
nik