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It's also cool to read the two forecasts comparatively to get a glimpse on how political identity is constructed in America and the EU. I'd also be curious to see if China or Russia have released any public prognosis, if you know of something of the like, please holler

Global Trends 2030 - as seen by the US National Intelligence “

There is no denying that imagining possible futures is interesting. The problem, however, is that despite the fact scenario planning has been with us for nearly forty years now, we’re still not very good at forecasting the future. And perhaps this is not surprising, as the number of possible scenarios grows exponentially when we look ahead just a few months, let alone years. Any forecasting exercise involving human interaction is ultimately flawed. It seems we just don’t have to tools for thinking about the future of society and business in the long run. Beyond what we call ‘epistemic arrogance’ or to put it more simply, imagining that people can predict things about people, professional forecasters commit three errors.

(documented exercizes of forecasting and prediction)

  • future_fabulators/world_in_2025.1392096042.txt.gz
  • Last modified: 2014-02-11 05:20
  • by nik