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| futurist_fieldguide:2x2_uncertainty [2015-05-21 08:22] – alkan | futurist_fieldguide:2x2_uncertainty [2015-05-21 08:26] (current) – alkan |
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| ==== 2x2 Uncertainty ==== | ==== 2x2 Uncertainty ==== |
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| This scenario building technique is a part of the [[GBN Approach]]. It is one of the most well-known and simplest scenario techniques that produces rich narratives. It begins by ranking change drivers (selected using e.g. the STEEP technique) by their importance and uncertainty. Usually two of up to three of the highest ranking drivers are singled out as 'critical uncertainties'. These are used to plot horizontal and vertical axes, which represent a spectrum between the extreme poles of these critical uncertainties. Contrasting scenarios are then created based on the combinations of critical uncertainties and other internal and external factors. | This scenario building technique is a part of the [[GBN Approach]]. It is one of the most well-known and simplest scenario techniques that produces rich narratives. It begins by ranking change drivers (selected using e.g. the STEEP technique) by their importance and uncertainty. Usually two of up to three of the highest ranking drivers are singled out as 'critical uncertainties'. These are used to plot horizontal and vertical axes, which represent the spectrum of possibilities between the extreme poles of the selected drivers. Contrasting scenarios are then created based on the combinations of critical uncertainties and other internal and external factors. |
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| This technique tends to produce exaggerated versions of the present and can therefore illuminate the current situation with reference to the selected drivers. Reality tends to be found in a cross-section of the four quadrants, with each quadrant representing a seed of a possible future. Our actions in the present can decide which future is more likely to unfold. The technique rarely produces radical breaks or surprises, but it can uncover what really matters to people and what they're most unsure of. It helps structure conversations, particularly about the present and very near future. | This technique tends to produce exaggerated versions of the present and can therefore shed light on the current situation with reference to the chosen critical uncertainties. Reality tends to be found in a cross-section of the four quadrants, with each quadrant representing a seed of a possible future. Our actions in the present can decide which future is more likely to unfold. The technique rarely produces radical breaks or surprises, but it can uncover what really matters to people and what they're most unsure of. It helps structure conversations, particularly about the present and very near future. |
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| === Process === | === Process === |
alkan