This scenario building technique creates four generic alternate futures: continuation, collapse, discipline and transformation. According to Jim Dator, who developed this technique at the Manoa School in Hawaii, most images of the future are likely to fall into one or another of these four generic categories. The technique is quite simple, although it requires quite some envisioning skills from participants, and careful guidance by the facilitator in order to avoid the four images becoming unimaginative cliches. It is a good technique to use when you want to find four very different alternative futures. It works best if the group has an in-depth and in-breadth knowledge of the past and present situation, as well as enough creativity to create interesting worlds from four generic concepts.
This scenario building technique is part of a longer 'futures visioning process' (see Dator's article). In order to build the four generic futures, the participants should have enough information about past and present circumstances, as well as an insight into the challenges and opportunities that might arise in the future from the interactions between local factors, macro trends, emerging issues and relevant 'constants'. Based on this information, the four generic futures can be constructed. After scenario building, Dator suggests participants proceed to envision and create their preferred future through an ongoing, embedded futures R&D. This page focuses on the scenario building part of this process.