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| futurist_fieldguide:futures_wheel [2015-06-02 16:11] – created maja | futurist_fieldguide:futures_wheel [2015-06-03 09:00] – alkan |
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| === Process === | === Process === |
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| Prepare several tables where different drivers will be discussed.You can choose specific drivers/issues, or discuss a range of driver categories, such as [[STEEP]]. On the table there should be a big paper for people to write on, markers, optionally post-its or other cards. If there has been some research done on the drivers before the session, find a way to bring think knowledge into the map (using cards, images, quotes...). | Prepare several tables where different drivers will be discussed.You can choose specific drivers/issues, or discuss a range of driver categories, such as [[STEEP]]. Use a big sheet of paper on the table for people to write on, markers, optionally Post-its or other cards. If there has been some research done on the drivers before the session, find a way to bring that knowledge into the map (using cards, images, quotes…). |
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| Step 1: Frame the session as a visual inquiry into the forces (or drivers) in the macro environment that can exert influence on the situation you're examining. The influence can already be happening, or it is perceived as only 'emerging'. If you have predefined topics of discussion (e.g. specific trends, issues or events, etc.), explain them as well. | Step 1: Frame the session as a visual enquiry into the forces (or drivers) in the macro environment that can exert influence on the situation you're examining. This can be done with a factor that is seen either as already happening or 'emergent'. If you have predefined topics of discussion (e.g. specific trends, issues or events, etc.), explain them as well. |
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| Step 1a: (optional): If you have predefined multiple drivers or categories, and/or a large group, you can run this session as a [[world cafe]] on several tables with multiple rounds (so that everyone gets a chance to discuss several if not all drivers). Each table has a designated moderator. The moderator stays at the same table for all rounds. | Step 1a: (optional): If you have multiple predefined drivers or categories, and/or a large group, you can run this session as a [[world cafe]] on several tables with multiple rounds (so that everyone gets a chance to discuss several if not all drivers). Each table has a designated moderator. The moderator stays at the same table for all rounds. |
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| Step 1b: If you don't have predefined topics, you can first discuss and distill a small number of key drivers before you begin the futures wheel or decide to use [[STEEP]] categories and look at key drivers per category. | Step 1b: If you don't have predefined topics, you can first discuss and distil a small number of key drivers before you begin the futures wheel or decide to use [[STEEP]] categories and look at key drivers per category. |
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| Step 2: Discuss which trends or weak signals are you aware of in the present, that could impact the issue/situation that the group is exploring? Select 3-5 primary drivers that have a definite impact and connect them radially to the centre. | Step 2: Discuss which trends or weak signals are you aware of in the present that could impact the issue/situation the group is exploring. Select 3--5 primary drivers that have a definite impact and connect them radially to the centre. |
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| Step 3: Create a branching mind-map showing wider implications of each of your primary trends | Step 3: Create a branching mindmap showing wider implications of each of your primary trends |
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| Step 4: Find connections between primary drivers and describe the secondary effects that their connection might produce | Step 4: Find connections between primary drivers and describe the secondary effects that their connection might produce. |
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| Step 4a: Look at possible connections between secondary (and further) effects and the consequences of their interactions. | Step 4a: Look at possible connections between secondary (and further) effects and the consequences of their interactions. |
maja