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futurist_fieldguide:gbn_approach [2015-04-03 14:33] – created majafuturist_fieldguide:gbn_approach [2015-05-19 09:05] – Links to futurist_fieldguide:kpu changed to futurist_fieldguide:kpuu_framework maja
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 The challenge of the method lies in its focus on scenario axes derived from critical uncertainties:  The challenge of the method lies in its focus on scenario axes derived from critical uncertainties: 
-  * reducing the number of change drivers to ~two critical uncertainties can create tension in participants (but can also work quite well in some situations, when it distills the core of the problem)+  * reducing the number of change drivers to two critical uncertainties can create tension in participants (but can also work quite well in some situations, when it distills the core of the problem)
   * the 2x2 matrix highlights 'opposites' and extreme scenarios, potentially losing the subtleties and diversity of the worlds.    * the 2x2 matrix highlights 'opposites' and extreme scenarios, potentially losing the subtleties and diversity of the worlds. 
  
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 Discuss what factors have an impact on the context or situation that will influence the outcome of your key question: people, places, resources (material, immaterial), history, technology, and so forth. Try to be specific and exhaustive. Make a mind-map of all the factors that together provide a complete picture of what influences the situation in the present. Discuss what factors have an impact on the context or situation that will influence the outcome of your key question: people, places, resources (material, immaterial), history, technology, and so forth. Try to be specific and exhaustive. Make a mind-map of all the factors that together provide a complete picture of what influences the situation in the present.
 +
 +If you prefer a more structured conversation, you can define the key factors using [[appreciative_inquiry_interviews]], [[kpuu_framework]] framework or other techniques described in the [[observing and mapping]] section.
  
 ===Step 3: Drivers === ===Step 3: Drivers ===
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 Identify the most important driving forces for the outcome of your key question. You can rank them on a scale from 1--10 from least to most important. Alternatively you can use a more relative measure (e.g. drawing a horizontal line and placing the drivers from left to right: important -> very important -> extremely important -> essential. Identify the most important driving forces for the outcome of your key question. You can rank them on a scale from 1--10 from least to most important. Alternatively you can use a more relative measure (e.g. drawing a horizontal line and placing the drivers from left to right: important -> very important -> extremely important -> essential.
  
-Next, identify which of the most important drivers are the most uncertain for the success of the core question from Step 1. Some drivers are likely to remain more or less fixed, constant and “certain”, like demographics, while others are mostly in flux and quite unpredictable, such as public opinion. You can rank the uncertainty of the drivers on a scale from 1--10, from least to most uncertain. Alternatively, you can use a more relative measure. One of the ways is to draw a diamond, with importance as one axes and uncertainty as the second one. By the end of this exercise, the most important and uncertain drivers will be in the top tip of the diamond, so they can be visually chosen.+Next, identify which of the most important drivers are the most uncertain for the success of the core question from Step 1. Some drivers are likely to remain more or less fixed, constant and 'certain', like demographics, while others are mostly in flux and quite unpredictable, such as public opinion. You can rank the uncertainty of the drivers on a scale from 1--10, from least to most uncertain. Alternatively, you can use a more relative measure. One of the ways is to draw a diamond, with importance as one axes and uncertainty as the second one. By the end of this exercise, the most important and uncertain drivers will be in the top tip of the diamond, so they can be visually chosen.
  
 List the drivers on a scale from most to least important and uncertain. List the drivers on a scale from most to least important and uncertain.
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 Select critical uncertainties and design scenario axes Select critical uncertainties and design scenario axes
  
-Select one to three (usually two) of the "most important and most uncertain" drivers. These are your critical uncertainties which will constitute the axes of your scenarios.+Select one to three (usually two) of the 'most important and most uncertain' drivers. These are your critical uncertainties which will constitute the axes of your scenarios.
  
-Think about each of these critical uncertainties as a continuum from one extreme to another. For example, if you chose "happiness" as one important and uncertain factor, your continuum might be from "an ocean of tears" at one end to "all smiles" at the other.+Think about each of these critical uncertainties as a continuum from one extreme to another. For example, if you chose 'happiness' as one important and uncertain factor, your continuum might be from 'an ocean of tears' at one end to 'all smiles' at the other.
  
 // NOTE: You can choose more than two critical uncertainties, but that tends to make the process more complicated (you’ll have to develop multiple scenario matrixes, or work in more than two dimensions, which participants tend to find difficult to hold in their heads).// // NOTE: You can choose more than two critical uncertainties, but that tends to make the process more complicated (you’ll have to develop multiple scenario matrixes, or work in more than two dimensions, which participants tend to find difficult to hold in their heads).//
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 Review what would happen with each of your critical uncertainties in different scenarios. Bring different change drivers and local factors into the scenarios. What would happen to them in different worlds? How did the wider world evolve from the present to this particular future? How did your local situation change? Who are the main protagonists in this world?  Review what would happen with each of your critical uncertainties in different scenarios. Bring different change drivers and local factors into the scenarios. What would happen to them in different worlds? How did the wider world evolve from the present to this particular future? How did your local situation change? Who are the main protagonists in this world? 
  
-In a group, come up with an outline, a 'skeleton' of each narrative. This can be short and succinct, but should capture the “essence” of the scenario. From these outlines you can then write out the scenarios as short stories. You can do this in smaller groups, or individuals can volunteer to flesh out the stories after the workshop and send them to others for edits and suggestions. +In a group, come up with an outline, a 'skeleton' of each narrative. This can be short and succinct, but should capture the 'essence' of the scenario. From these outlines you can then write out the scenarios as short stories. You can do this in smaller groups, or individuals can volunteer to flesh out the stories after the workshop and send them to others for edits and suggestions. 
  
 === Step 7: Answers === === Step 7: Answers ===
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-Adapted from: http://www.infinitefutures.com/tools/sbschwartz.shtml +Adapted from: Peter Schwartz, 1998, //The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World,// Wiley http://www.infinitefutures.com/tools/sbschwartz.shtml
-Peter Schwartz, 1998, //The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World,// Wiley+
  
  • futurist_fieldguide/gbn_approach.txt
  • Last modified: 2015-05-20 14:06
  • by alkan