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| futurist_fieldguide:horizon_scanning [2021-04-13 17:08] – nik | futurist_fieldguide:horizon_scanning [2021-04-14 10:11] – nik |
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| ==== Horizon Scanning ==== | ===== Horizon Scanning ===== |
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| How do we get a sense of the big picture in which our core question or issue is embedded? How do we identify what might be a dynamic potential of a current situation? What are its constants and variables? How does change happen across micro and macro scales, short and long time horizons? How do we filter and collate aspects of the present that might be important for particular futures? Horizon scanning (aka environmental scanning) can help to address such questions in a systematic yet exploratory manner. | How can we get a sense of the big picture in which our core question or issue is embedded? How do we identify the dynamic potential of our current situation? What are the constants and variables? How does change happen across micro and macro scales, short and long time horizons? How do we collect, filter, and collate aspects of the present that could be important for particular futures? Horizon scanning (aka environmental scanning) can help address such questions in a systematic yet exploratory manner. |
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| Horizon scanning refers to a specific aptitude that enables active, curious, open and non-judgmental sensing of change to become a continuous (life-long) practice. Horizon scanning is also a set of specific scanning techniques that can help to focus your futuring research. In horizon scanning you observe and track change from multiple points of view. While scanning, you pay attention to signals of change in the world around you. This practice can help you uncover patterns of change over time and anticipate how they might evolve to shape different futures. You observe, collect and track different signals of change, and collate them into bigger patterns of change, such as trends and driving forces. | Horizon scanning refers to a specific aptitude that enables a broad, active, curious, and pre-judgmental sensing of change as part of a continuous (life-long) practice. Horizon scanning is also a set of specific scanning techniques that can help to focus your futuring research. In horizon scanning you observe and track change from multiple points of view. While scanning, you pay attention to signals of change in the world around you. This practice can help you uncover patterns of change over time and anticipate how they might evolve to shape different futures. You observe, collect and track different signals of change, and collate them into bigger patterns of change, such as trends and driving forces. |
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| //"Almost all foresight work starts with or involves Horizon Scanning. 'Horizon, or Environmental, Scanning is the art of systematically exploring the external environment to better understand the nature and pace of change in that environment, and identify potential opportunities, challenges, and likely future developments"// | //"Almost all foresight work starts with or involves Horizon Scanning. 'Horizon, or Environmental, Scanning is the art of systematically exploring the external environment to better understand the nature and pace of change in that environment, and identify potential opportunities, challenges, and likely future developments"// |
| —[[http://www.shapingtomorrow.com/media-centre/pf-ch04.pdf|Practical Foresight Guide]] | —[[http://www.shapingtomorrow.com/media-centre/pf-ch04.pdf|Practical Foresight Guide]] |
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| === Signals === | ==== Signals ==== |
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| //"Signals are things you encounter that can shed light on the future."// —[[https://www.howtofuture.com/|How to Future]] | //"Signals are things you encounter that can shed light on the future."// —[[https://www.howtofuture.com/|How to Future]] |
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| === Trends === | ==== Trends ==== |
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| Trends are tendencies and patterns of change. They describe what is changing, how this change happens, where and for whom the change is happening. Trends provide context for individual signals. This context sometimes only becomes apparent when clustering, synthesising or analysing multiple signals. Trends evolve over time and can be emerging, ongoing or declining. They co-exist and influence each other. They can converge and diverge, amplify and dampen each other's effects. Trends (and interactions between trends) can have wide reaching implications, depending on how the (parts of a) system responds to them. When researching change related to specific issues, it's worth noting down what implications a particular trend could have for these issues. | Trends are tendencies and patterns of change. They describe what is changing, how this change happens, where and for whom the change is happening. Trends provide context for individual signals. This context sometimes only becomes apparent when clustering, synthesising or analysing multiple signals. Trends evolve over time and can be emerging, ongoing or declining. They co-exist and influence each other. They can converge and diverge, amplify and dampen each other's effects. Trends (and interactions between trends) can have wide reaching implications, depending on how the (parts of a) system responds to them. When researching change related to specific issues, it's worth noting down what implications a particular trend could have for these issues. |
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| === Driving forces === | ==== Driving forces ==== |
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| Driving forces of change aka megatrends are longer-term shifts with wider-reaching consequences. They shape trends and are the underlying causes of signals. They are observed over decades (or longer) and can have impact across most if not all sectors. Ideologies, political and economic systems, ecosystems, demographics, cultural values and other slow changing patterns can all be considered megatrends. These are the forces that are more stable than trends and signals, more certain and constant. | Driving forces of change aka megatrends are longer-term shifts with wider-reaching consequences. They shape trends and are the underlying causes of signals. They are observed over decades (or longer) and can have impact across most if not all sectors. Ideologies, political and economic systems, ecosystems, demographics, cultural values and other slow changing patterns can all be considered megatrends. These are the forces that are more stable than trends and signals, more certain and constant. |
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| ==== Scanning process ==== | ===== Scanning process ===== |
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| //"Environmental scanning is a task of discovery. Good scanners do all kinds of things to look for clues about how the world is changing: read news, blogs, and listservs, watch TV and YouTube, travel, talk to people, visit factories, go to stores, attend events, and so on. Scanners work to discover leads, ideas, thought triggers, data suggesting a trend, and so on. Then they join with colleagues to talk about what they have found and what it means."// —http://foresightculture.com/escanning-20 | //"Environmental scanning is a task of discovery. Good scanners do all kinds of things to look for clues about how the world is changing: read news, blogs, and listservs, watch TV and YouTube, travel, talk to people, visit factories, go to stores, attend events, and so on. Scanners work to discover leads, ideas, thought triggers, data suggesting a trend, and so on. Then they join with colleagues to talk about what they have found and what it means."// —http://foresightculture.com/escanning-20 |
| * Apply: use the insights to inform the subsequent phases of the project | * Apply: use the insights to inform the subsequent phases of the project |
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| === Sourcing === | ==== Sourcing ==== |
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| Most curious people do some form of informal scanning of different sources. In horizon scanning, it's important to be sufficiently critical of the sources, yet also sufficiently open minded to observe signals that don't agree with our worldview, or counter our arguments. Diversity of sources is key for horizon scanning, in order to get as broad picture of the landscape as possible. | Most curious people do some form of informal scanning of different sources. In horizon scanning, it's important to be sufficiently critical of the sources, yet also sufficiently open minded to observe signals that don't agree with our worldview, or counter our arguments. Diversity of sources is key for horizon scanning, in order to get as broad picture of the landscape as possible. |
| * Learning journeys (seek out and learn from innovators and thinkers, have immersive experiences ('Finding the future: Why learning Journeys Give and Adaptive Edge,' Nicole-Anne Boyer)" | * Learning journeys (seek out and learn from innovators and thinkers, have immersive experiences ('Finding the future: Why learning Journeys Give and Adaptive Edge,' Nicole-Anne Boyer)" |
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| === Sorting === | ==== Sorting ==== |
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| While you might spend most of the time scanning sources to find out what is happening, sorting and structuring the gathered information is just as important to be able to make sense of it all, to be able to answer the question "what does this tell me (about my topic of interest or possible future) | While you might spend most of the time scanning sources to find out what is happening, sorting and structuring the gathered information is just as important to be able to make sense of it all, to be able to answer the question "what does this tell me (about my topic of interest or possible future) |
| * PEST(LE): Political, Economic, Societal, Technological, (Legal), (Environmental) | * PEST(LE): Political, Economic, Societal, Technological, (Legal), (Environmental) |
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| ==== References ==== | |
| | ==== Synthesis ==== |
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| | (...) |
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| | ===== References ===== |
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| * https://www.howtofuture.com/ by Changeist and Madeline Ashby | * https://www.howtofuture.com/ by Changeist and Madeline Ashby |
nik